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Paul Bremer, the top American administrator in Iraq,
declared the young Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
an outlaw on April 5. Muqtadar's response: "I'm accused
by one of the leaders of evil, Bremer, of being an
outlaw. If that means breaking the law of the American
tyranny and its filthy constitution, I'm proud of that,
and that is why I'm in revolt."
Both sides are
currently positioning themselves for the next move,
which is likely to lead to more violence and bloodshed,
possibly that of Muqtada, whom President George W Bush
now says he wants arrested. If Muqtada becomes a martyr
for his cause, one can be rest assured that the Shi'ite
south - a region that has been known for its relative
calm and cooperation with the occupying forces - would
slide toward a general revolt against the United States.
It is difficult to fathom the overall US plan of
dealing with the growing chaos in Iraq, except Bush's
announcement that he remains fully committed to the
transfer of authority to Iraqis on June 30. What is so
sacred about that deadline? No one seems to know for
sure, especially at a time when the Iraqi security
forces have been under tremendous pressure and constant
attack, and when those forces have failed to create a
record of credible performance for themselves. That is a
major problem for the Coalition Provisional Authority
(CPA), since the chief basis of its plan is to rely on
those forces to maintain law and order.
Both
Bush and Bremer have confirmed that there is a warrant
for the arrest of Muqtadar. He is considered as one of
the suspects in the murder of Ayatollah Abdel Majid
al-Khoei last year. However, an Iraqi judge had signed
that warrant "within the last several months".
The CPA's decision to arrest - or even kill -
Muqtada might stem from the fact that he has recently
expressed sympathy for Hamas and Hezbollah during his
sermons, anti-American and anti-Israel organizations
based in Palestine and Lebanon. Coalition officials have
started speaking of Muqtada as a "terrorist", and they
have banned his newspaper for 60 days. Sunday's outbreak
of violence in Najaf is also a reason why the CPA might
have decided to arrest the 30-year-old cleric. While he
is alive, only between 10-15 percent of the country's
Shi'ites follow him. If he is killed at the hands of the
Americans, that incident is likely to create a much
larger following for his radical cause. More to the
point, it will not be long before another cleric will
emerge to take his place.
As things are only
beginning to worsen in the Shi'ite region of Iraq, the
US remains poised about retaliating in Fallujah in the
Sunni triangle as a response to the murder and
mutilation of four American contractors. According to
current analysis, US forces might not go into Fallujah
with "guns blazing and looking for blood". Instead, the
buzz is that after surrounding Fallujah - which is
currently pretty much complete - the military will force
the village elders or clan leaders to hand over the
persons whose names and faces are currently well-known
within the American military intelligence circles in
Iraq.
Back in the US, General John Abizaid,
Commander of Central Command, is reported to be
considering the option of sending more troops to Iraq if
the situation worsens. This development is expected to
open up an old wound related to the use of the right
size of forces in invading and occupying Iraq, a topic
that was one of the hottest sources of controversies
even before the military campaign in that country began.
When the then army chief of staff, General Eric
Shinseki, stated that the occupation could require
"several hundred thousand troops", Deputy Secretary of
Defense Paul Wolfowitz called Shinseki's estimate
"wildly off the mark". Now that episode is likely to be
revived.
Senator Ted Kennedy
(Democrat-Massachusetts), one of the chief supporters of
the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, John Kerry,
has raised his criticism of Bush by several decibels in
stating on Monday: "Bush is the problem, not the
solution. Iraq is George Bush's Vietnam, and this
country needs a new president." On a different topic, in
the same speech, Kennedy slammed the president as
"deceitful" and, for the first time, compared him to
former president Richard Nixon.
Two most visible
and well-respected senators - Dick Lugar
(Republican-Indiana) and Joe Biden (Democrat-Delaware) -
have also gone public in terms of recommending Bush to
reconsider June 30 as a date for the transfer of
authority to Iraqis. Considering the fact that Lugar is
the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
his suggestion is likely to be presented by the
Republican Party luminaries for Bush to consider.
Needless to say, if he changes his position regarding
that date by accepting Lugar's advice, Democrats will
instantly trigger the charge of "flip-flop" to their
already long list of criticism of Bush.
If the
security conditions in Iraq were to improve, all these
developments and criticism of Bush within the American
domestic arena would dissipate. If, on the other hand,
things were to deteriorate - as all discernable signs
indicate - domestic criticism of Bush's handling of Iraq
will emerge as a major source of his weakness.
Unfortunately from the US perspectives, developments in
Iraq are beginning to appear like a constant ride on a
roller coaster. The only question is: how much of this
stormy ride will the American public tolerate, and for
how long?
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an
Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic
analyst.
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