Ba'athists jump on the
bandwagon By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The current intensification of unrest
in Iraq, blamed largely on Shi'ite cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr, his supporters and members of his Mahdi Army
militia, overlooks the role played by those who once
enjoyed privileges under Saddam Hussein acting as agents
provocateurs to further their cause.
The long-awaited clash - from the point of view of
former Ba'athists and their beneficiaries - between Muqtada
and coalition forces has finally happened, and now
these once-favored people under the regime of Saddam can be
expected to do their utmost to foment unrest beyond the
Sunni triangle to the Shi'ite-dominated southern
regions, which to date have been largely safe for the
coalition forces and the US-installed administrations.
Already, the regions of Najaf, Kufa, Nasiriyah,
Amara and Basra have experienced trouble, and the
restive Badviyan tribes of the southern marshlands are
likely to take a part in the insurgency.
After
the fall of Saddam, the tribal-based rural population of
Iraq suffered the most. Whether Shi'ites or Sunnis, most
of the tribes and their chiefs were dependent on state
largess, different kinds of royalties (such as looking
after pipelines) and special patronage conferred on them
by Saddam, all to secure their loyalty. Indeed, it could
be said that the tribal sheikhs were one of the key
power pillars of the former Ba'ath regime.
This
was especially true of the tribesmen of the marshlands,
who contributed men to the Jaishul Badviya, an army
raised from different tribes, in return for which tribal
chiefs were given honors and grants. In the early days
of the US-led invasion of Iraq last year, it was through
the loyalty of the marshland tribes, although Shi'ites,
that such fierce resistance was raised against invading
troops around Basra, Umm-i-Qasr and Wasit.
After
Saddam's fall, most of these Badviyans were deprived of
their privileges, including jobs and places in the army.
Many of them as a result quickly identified with
Muqtada's strong anti-US rhetoric and joined in at his
demonstrations.
But contrary to most Western
media claims that former Ba'athists became part of the
Mahdi Army, although enthusiastic participants in
Muqtada's gatherings, they did not join his army,
instead they bided their time.
The US decision
recently to close Muqtada's newspaper, al-Hawza, and the
demonstrations that followed provided them an
opportunity to help turn peaceful demonstrations into
angry scenes and then violence.
The manner in
which the unrest has quickly spread beyond the
traditional Sunni hotspots indicates that Ba'athist brains
are at work desperately trying to find a vehicle for
their opposition to US-led forces. The Muqtada bandwagon
might be just such a vehicle.
This can be
deduced from the fact that the Mahdi Army has little
more than 3,000 soldiers, yet the fire of insurgency has
spread from al-Kadymia (Baghdad) to Basra, even though
Muqtada cannot be equated as a political force with the
Dawa Party, which is part of the Iraqi Governing
Council, and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has the
support of the majority of Shi'ites and who currently
has kept a low profile.
If indeed the Ba'athists
are emerging again, new strength to the guerrilla
movement in central and northern Iraq can be expected.
At present, most activity is in Mosul, Baghdad and
Tikrit. Now it is likely that the strongholds of the
former Ba'ath regime, including the cities of Babylon,
Samarra, Mehmoodia and Hawaija (Kikuk), will take up
arms in an organized manner and join the struggle - and,
through the barrel of the gun, make a convincing
argument for their inclusion in the political process.
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