COMMENTARY Calm down. It's not Iraq
War II By Marc Erikson
Just
over a month ago, I warned of the illusion of a
Shi'ite-led democratic Iraq propounded by US
neo-conservatives around and embedded in the US Bush
administration (Dangerous illusions of a democratic
Shi'ite Iraq, February 26). I warned, in particular,
that "Muqtada al-Sadr, age 31, is a more radical
exponent of his father's beliefs and teachings", noting
that the father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, assassinated
(along with two sons) on the direct orders of Saddam
Hussein's son Uday in 1999, was an adherent of the
clerical style of rule adopted by Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini in the Iranian revolution of 1979.
The
latest events, then, come as no surprise. I'm not
surprised, either, by the latest glaring US intelligence
and policy failure of apparently neither discerning nor
interdicting the massive influx to Iraq of Iranian money
and personnel in aid of Muqtada and associated
movements. Worse yet, perhaps the Central Intelligence
Agency and Pentagon did discern the Iranian role,
but continue to harbor the illusion that enemies'
enemies might be friends and a counterweight to the
remaining troublesome Saddamists in the Sunni triangle.
That said, alarmist reports/opinions in the
pages of this newspaper and other international
publications suggesting that Iraq War, Take 2, has
broken out (or is about to) are overdrawn and smack of
anti-American Schadenfreude. Muqtada is a
youngish, uneducated thug and regarded as such by the
senior Shi'ite clergy. He has no standing or credentials
as a teacher or jurist. But senior Shi'ite religious and
political leaders likely are giving him a run to further
their own goal of gaining leverage with the occupying
authorities.
The problem is that, though there
is no love lost between Muqtada and his Shi'ite street
following and the diehard Sunni Ba'athists of Fallujah
and Ramadi, the latter take encouragement from the
spreading of the anti-occupation action. But we are not
looking at a burgeoning Shi'ite/Sunni intifada bent on
or capable of expelling the occupying powers. We are not
looking at a second Iraq war. Unlike in Palestine, the
majority of Iraqis do not support Muqtada's Spartakist
uprising or the Sunni triangle terrorist campaign. They
want peace, order and business, and want to get on with
their lives.
The larger problem lies with the
longer-term aims of the senior Shi'ite leadership. They
have called for earliest possible elections to secure
their rule, and only grudgingly accepted the new Iraqi
constitution, which is secular and egalitarian (notably
in respect of women) in nature. I am not a "one man, one
vote, one time" cynic. But the Grand Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani does not strike me as a democrat at
heart. Shrewdly calculating his potential leverage
gains, he has not (as of this writing) made even a
gesture at condemning Muqtada's actions. Were Muqtada
captured under the present arrest orders, Sistani would
likely deplore it. In the longer run, Sistani wants
Shi'ite clergy power in Iraq and - once attained - will
ally Iraq with the mullahs of Iran. Therein lies the
clear and present danger of the current turn of events.
The Muqtada rebellion the Americans can and will handle;
the longer-term goal of a democratic Shi'ite Iraq is a
quixotic cause.
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