Revolt and Iran: New nukes and old
issues By Ritt Goldstein
With
the Iraq revolt finding increasing allies internally,
elements within the administration of United States
President George W Bush have again attempted to place
blame externally, particularly singling out Iran and
Hezbollah (an Iranian-backed Lebanese group). Inside
"information" was provided to the media, editorials were
written, a blame campaign was done. But while Iran's
denials were questioned, US Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld described direct Iranian involvement as "not to
my knowledge". And that raises a question as to what the
Iranian accusations are really about, with part of the
answer appearing nuclear.
On Tuesday, the
conservative US media outlet NewsMax headlined that the
Wall Street Journal had editorialized on alleged Iranian
involvement in the Iraq revolt, urging that: "As for
Tehran, we would hope the [Muqtada al-]Sadr uprising
puts to rest the illusion that the mullahs [Iranian
religious leaders] can be appeased ... If warnings to
Tehran from Washington don't impress them, perhaps some
cruise missiles aimed at the Busheir nuclear site will."
And behind that sentiment, the past few weeks have seen
rising concerns that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons
program.
While on Wednesday Singapore announced
the signing of a free trade agreement with Iran, and on
Thursday, Chinese Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan met with his
Iranian counterpart Mohammad Setarifar to pursue
furthering trade, the US and Europe have had Iranian
nuclear issues on their agenda. And with Iran pressed
between two states which are occupied by the US - Iraq
and Afghanistan - the fact of the Islamic Republic's
inclusion on Bush's "Axis of Evil" does provide
incentive for pursuing a nuclear deterrent.
The
fate of Iraq vs North Korea has not gone unnoticed by
many; though Iran claims it is not pursuing a nuclear
weapons program. For well over a year, the US has
believed that what Iran is pursuing is a game of nuclear
cat-and-mouse, surreptitious progress on the road to a
nuclear device ongoing. And within the past two weeks,
"Western diplomats" have been quoted in numerous media
articles expressing their concern. But while there seems
to be a lot of smoke, no one has yet claimed to have
seen any fire - no conclusive evidence has been found.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
the United Nations' mechanism for judging compliance
with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has been
pursuing allegations of an Iranian weapons program since
2002. And in late March, the Los Angeles Times revealed
an intelligence report detailing that an Iranian
committee had been established to conceal the country's
nuclear program from the IAEA. Notably, Iran has failed
to make mandatory reports on the creation and use of
uranium enrichment facilities, as well as the pursuit of
other activities that are considered nuclear-weapons
related.
The IAEA passed a resolution early last
month "deploring" Iran's failure to report efforts
regarding special centrifuges for obtaining
weapons-grade uranium. And the IAEA had previously found
traces of weapons-grade uranium during its
investigations. Precipitating those investigations was a
tip from an Iranian exile group, a group now listed on
Washington's so-called "terror-list".
The
National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) did
provide accurate information on the previously unknown
uranium enrichment facilities. Last month, the former
spokesman for NCRI told Reuters of a secret Iranian
program to develop a nuclear weapon by 2005, pursuing
the necessary uranium enrichment at a large number of
small locations. And according to a number of media
sources, "Western intelligence" had found evidence
suggesting such a possible decentralization of Iran's
enrichment program as early as November.
The US
and Israel are both particularly concerned as to the
potential ramifications of an Iranian nuclear weapon,
and the United Kingdom, France and Germany began to show
their concern earlier this month. Europe's so-called
"big three" reacted to an Iranian announcement that it
was initiating the start-up of a uranium conversion
operation, the first step before the enrichment process.
Since then, Tehran announced a June start for the
creation of a reactor generating plutonium, the same
material North Korea uses in its nuclear weapons. And
it's against this background that the charges of Iranian
aid to the Iraq revolt come.
According to the
April 8 New York Times, "some intelligence officials
believe that the Pentagon has been eager to link
Hezbollah to the violence in Iraq in order to link the
Iranian regimes more closely to anti-American
terrorism." A basis for US action is being sought.
Notably, the same article "contradicts repeated
statements by the Bush administration", and highlights
that US intelligence officials believe that the Shi'ite
insurgency isn't limited to Muqtada, but is rather a
"broad-based Shi'ite uprising ... hatred of the US
occupation has spread". Also noted is that Sunni
insurgents go "far beyond former Ba'athist regime
members."
Paradoxically, the Iraqi group to
which Iran does have significant and long ties is the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SCIRI). The SCIRI's leader, Abdel Azziz Hakim, is a
member of the Iraqi Governing Council, and the SCIRI's
substantive militia, the Badr Group, has been reported
as refraining from fighting. But Iraqi Shi'ite leader
Grand Ayotollah Ali al-Sistani has reportedly endorsed
Muqtada's confrontation, as have others, supposedly
including Sunni tribal chiefs.
As a further
measure of popular sympathies, there have been numerous
reports of Iraqi police and security forces failing to
"confront" insurgents. On Thursday, Iraqi civil
administrator L Paul Bremer requested the Shi'ite
interior minister's resignation, and received it.
At Thursday's Coalition Provisional Authority
briefing, the commander of coalition ground forces,
Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, attempted to dismiss
those resisting the occupation as "a small group of
criminals and thugs". But at the same briefing, Sanchez
was repeatedly questioned regarding US acts alleged to
be in violation of the Geneva Convention regarding the
conduct of war.
In a telling moment, Sanchez
described a US attack on a Fallujah mosque as probably
causing "some minor damage to the physical
infrastructure". But the Associated Press reported a
count of 40 civilian deaths, including "whole families".
The insurgency gives every indication of being a
popular uprising, with links between Sunni and Shi'ite
insurgents in the process of evolving.
By
further contrast, in a March 7 Pentagon press
conference, both Rumsfeld and Joint Chiefs chairman
General Richard Myers again repeatedly emphasized the
"limited" nature of those in revolt. Particularly
notable, Rumsfeld mentioned Jordanian-Palestinian
militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi four times in his opening
remarks, but spoke of Muqtada only once, highlighting a
continuing administration effort to blame foreign
influences instead of American shortcomings.
In
a particularly astonishing revelation, Myers
acknowledged that the revolt was purposefully provoked
by US forces, saying that it was known that coalition
actions taken would provoke a response - "it was not
unanticipated or unexpected", Myers said.
But
every indication points to the fact that the extent of
resistance ignited was far from anticipated, or
expected. Unlike Operation Iraqi Freedom, the military
action appears ill-planned, even hasty, as if driven by
events other than military circumstance. An alternative
trigger for the operation is suggested.
The day
after The Journal's editorial, the Washington Times ran
two articles dealing with Iran and Hezbollah. While
Shi'ite Hezbollah is a legitimate and powerful Lebanese
political party, it's also among the most skilled and
deadly of terror groups on the planet. One Washington
Times story reported that "military sources" had
revealed that Muqtada was "being aided directly by
Iran's Revolutionary Guard", and Hezbollah. But that
very afternoon, Rumsfeld denied any knowledge of direct
aid between Iran and Muqtada. However, the other story
was entitled "Tehran's Proxy", reporting Iran's alleged
funding of anti-Israeli terror groups through Hezbollah,
representing another aspect of the equation.
While recent headlines have run with an
assertion that the US "really" invaded Iraq to protect
Israel, security analysts view Iran's aid to regional
terror groups, coupled with its nuclear ambitions and
desires for regional hegemony, as Israel's true Middle
East threat. Adding to the issues, and beyond questions
of protecting the present watchdog for US area
interests, both Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and
Rumsfeld have unpleasant histories with Hezbollah.
It's alleged Hezbollah was involved in the 1996
Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia which killed 19 US
servicepeople, and the early 1980s bombings against US
personnel in Lebanon, including the blast which killed
273 US marines. Hezbollah is an organization with many
facets and capabilities, and it's believed that they are
in Iraq; though, according to the New York Times,
Central Intelligence Agency sources claim not in a
terrorist or military capacity.
Regardless of
Hezbollah actions in Iraq, for reasons of perceived
Israeli security, Sharon has recently warned Hezbollah
chief Hassan Nasrallah of his potential assassination by
Israeli forces. Speculation exists that what is
presently transpiring in the Middle East is an attempt
to undertake a broad, US-initiated effort to address a
number of regional concerns within a limited time-frame,
domestic US political circumstance (ie, September 11
political fallout) likely to have influenced the timing
of events, such as the initiation of the provocations
Myers acknowledged.
Ritt Goldstein is
an American investigative political journalist based in
Stockholm. His work has appeared in broadsheets such as
Australia's Sydney Morning Herald, Spain's El Mundo and
Denmark's Politiken, as well as with the Inter Press
Service (IPS), a global news agency.
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