With reports
on Wednesday of United States warplanes and helicopter
gunships firing machine-guns, rockets and cannons at
gunmen in the besieged city of Fallujah, a brief truce
is being strained to the limit. Reports from non-US
sources describe that hundreds of Iraqis have died in
Fallujah as a result of a week's
intense
fighting between Sunnis and the US troops. One Shi'ite
member of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) has
suspended his membership in that body, and four others
have threatened to follow suit in protest against what
they label as "collective punishment" of Fallujah
residents by the occupation forces for the death and
mutilation of the bodies of four American security
workers. One member of the IGC has even described that
operation as "genocide". If the discussions of a
quagmire in Iraq were previously dismissed by the Bush
administration as hyperbolic, this time all indications
are that the wolf is, indeed, at the door.
One
year ago on April 9 Iraqis were celebrating the toppling
of a giant-sized statue of Saddam Hussein, an event that
will forever be remembered as the defining moment of the
end of a brutal era in Iraq. On the first anniversary of
that event, on April 9, there was another defining -
albeit not a heavily publicized - moment: a US Marine
was tearing down the poster of the young Shi'ite cleric,
Muqtada al-Sadr, from the same pedestal that had once
carried the statue of the Iraqi dictator. Except, unlike
Saddam, Muqtada has emerged as a leader whose popularity
is perceptibly increasing. He has already declared his
intention of becoming a "martyr" in the Iraqi quest for
independence that still defies the besieged nation. Now,
a growing number of Iraqis are fighting the awesome
military might of the US, their erstwhile "liberator".
The unfolding tragedy in Iraq promises to contain even
more tragic chapters and gruesome events than before.
The outbreak of hostilities in Fallujah, and the
holy Shi'ite city of Najaf, reported to be turning into
a powerful basis for cooperation between the Sunnis and
Shi'ites of Iraq, marks a development beyond the wildest
imagination of fiction writers. That cooperation is
based on a common perception that "enemies" in Iraq are
Western occupation forces, especially its leader, the
United States.
One wonders what motivated L Paul
Bremer, America's viceroy in Iraq and head of the
Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), and the US
military commanders to resort to tough actions in
Fallujah and Najaf, and to declare Muqtada an "outlaw",
or by threatening to use "overwhelming force" to punish
those who mutilated the bodies of the American
contractors. In the case of Fallujah, the perpetrators
of the mutilation could have been extracted through
negotiations with city elders or tribal leaders. In the
case of Muqtada, the CPA's best option would have been
to continue to ignore him as a minor irritation, instead
of deciding to confront him through such actions as
closing down his newspaper, arresting his aide, and
going to the extent of threatening to kill him if he
resisted arrest.
For the CPA, prior to the
events that led to the escalation of violence in the
northern and southern portions of Iraq, the supreme
objective was to see that the symbolic transition of
authority to the IGC was carried out as smoothly as
possible. Fanning the flames of anger through threats of
retribution in Fallujah, or heightening confrontation
with Muqtada were not measures that would serve
America's best interests in Iraq. The consequences for
talking tough or reacting impulsively are too severe and
serious for America's overall purpose.
Now the
forces of moderation - members of the IGC and even
Shi'ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - will be
constantly looking over their shoulders if they were to
maintain their moderate modus operandi. Political
moderation is likely to be seen as an "appeasement" of
the occupiers and as "collaboration" more now than ever
before. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the alleged al-Qaeda
operative in Iraq - who is reported to be the mastermind
of a number of terrorist attacks against American forces
and Iraqis - could not have imagined a more friendly
environment in which to accelerate the pace of his
campaign of terror against forces of civility in Iraq,
especially against those Iraqis who still dare to dream
of a stable and democratic Iraq, and who still have half
a mind of cooperating with the Americans.
The
feelings of anger, anxiety and insecurity among the IGC
were highlighted by the fact that one Shi'ite member,
Abdul Karim Mohammedawi, has suspended his membership,
and four other members - Salma Khafaji (Shi'ite woman),
Ghazi Ajil Yawer (a Sunni from Mosul), Hassani (a
representative of Iraqi Islamic Party) - are reportedly
contemplating to follow suit.
More to the point,
Adnan Pachachi, a senior Sunni member of IGC - and
previously a vocal supporter of the occupation, and a
person who was showcased by the Bush administration as a
representative of the "new" Iraq - has publicly
condemned US actions. He told al-Arabiyya television:
"We consider the action carried out by US forces illegal
and totally unacceptable. We denounce the military
operations carried out by the American forces because,
in effect, it is [inflicting] collective punishment on
the residents of Fallujah." Brigadier General Mark
Kimmitt, a spokesman of the US military, responded:
"Nothing can be further from the truth. We run extremely
precise operations focused on people we have
intelligence on for crimes of violence against the
coalition and against the Iraqi people."
Another
member of the IGC, Hachim Hassani, stated: "The
coalition has opened too many fronts in Iraq, alienating
a large swath of the population. The Iraqi people now
equate democracy with bloodshed." A resident of Fallujah
was even more poignant when he observed: "It is only
300,000 people living here, a small city, but the way
the Americans are fighting it's as if they are fighting
a whole continent. Is this the reconstruction and the
freedom Bush is talking about? We prefer Saddam's
repression."
The very survival of the IGC as a
viable entity depends not only on the declaration of a
meaningful ceasefire in Fallujah, but, more
substantially, on the successful participation of its
members to negotiate some sort of resolution.
There is little doubt that the American military
power will be able to silence and subjugate the
dissenters and protagonists in Iraq, at least for now.
But the enormous resentment that its brutal use of force
is creating in Iraq is likely to become a profound
reason why a Christian superpower will fail in
proselytizing Muslim Iraqis into believing in the
inherent superiority of democracy. Unfortunately from
the Bush administration's perspectives, as the Shi'ites
and Sunnis continue to cooperate to oust the US from
their country, conflict in Iraq is increasingly
perceived along religious lines, not just by Iraqis, but
also by most of the Arab Middle East.
If the
purpose of the US's continued occupation of Iraq is to
create democracy, that purpose is presently witnessing
its darkest hour. When will the US bring an end to its
occupation of Iraq? Currently, we only hear that it is
there to stay for the long haul. How can democracy
emerge as a viable form of government if, in the process
of its creation, Washington continues to alienate a
large number of Iraqis on a sustained basis? Even if the
United Nations were to take charge of rebuilding Iraq -
an option that is frequently mentioned as US forces
continue to face stiffened resistance to their high
profile presence and strong-armed maneuvering in that
country - the world body has to operate on the basis of
some sort of a timetable for the withdrawal of all
foreign troops, especially American ones.
However, there are no indications to date that
the US is thinking about pulling out of Iraq. No one
should view this proposition as a sole representative of
the thinking and commitment of George W Bush. John
Kerry, if he were to be elected as the next US
president, is not likely to "cut and run" from Iraq, he
has said on many occasions. If the preceding is not the
description of Iraq turning into a quagmire for the
United States, then no one knows what else it really is.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria,
Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.
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intense
fighting between Sunnis and the US troops. One Shi'ite
member of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) has
suspended his membership in that body, and four others
have threatened to follow suit in protest against what
they label as "collective punishment" of Fallujah
residents by the occupation forces for the death and
mutilation of the bodies of four American security
workers. One member of the IGC has even described that
operation as "genocide". If the discussions of a
quagmire in Iraq were previously dismissed by the Bush
administration as hyperbolic, this time all indications
are that the wolf is, indeed, at the door. 
