Even as
US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned that the
chances for a political settlement of the armed standoff
in the Iraqi city of Fallujah were "remote" because
insurgency leaders probably won't surrender, fresh
clashes erupted there on Wednesday.
And in Basra
in the south, suicide bombers killed at least 60 people
and wounded hundreds, many of them children, in
coordinated attacks on four police stations.
Near-simultaneous explosions rocked three police
stations in Basra and one in the town of Zubair, 25
kilometers south of the mainly Shi'ite city, the British
military confirmed.
In the Sunni city of
Fallujah, residents said that Marines and guerrillas
traded mortar, machinegun and rocket-propelled grenade
fire in clashes that broke out early Wednesday morning
and were still raging in the city's Golan district hours
later.
US and Iraqi representatives had agreed
on a preliminary plan for a full ceasefire in the
embattled town. After three days of indirect talks, US
military officials agreed that they would call off
offensive operations at the town provided that local
leaders could persuade insurgents to hand over their
heavy weapons to Iraqi police.
The accord tasks
a seven-man leadership council in Fallujah with
convincing the fighters in the town to participate. The
chief spokesman in Iraq for the US-led coalition, Dan
Senor, described the disarmament obligations of the
fighters in Fallujah.
"The parties agreed to
call on citizens and groups to immediately turn in all
illegal weapons. Illegal weapons are defined as mortars,
[RPGs - rocket propelled grenade launchers],
machine-guns, sniper rifles, [improvised explosive
device-]making materials, grenades, and surface-to-air
missiles and all associated ammunition. Those who give
up their weapons voluntarily will not be prosecuted for
weapons violations," Senor said.
In return,
Senor said, up to 50 Iraqi families will be allowed to
return to Fallujah each day. Also, sick or injured
Iraqis will have a chance to receive treatment at
hospitals in Fallujah. But Senor stressed that any
delays on disarmament by the insurgents will cause the
deal to collapse. "We've been very clear that time is
running out. There is only so much longer we can
continue this process before we have to re-engage and
reinitiate operations," Senor said.
Senor says
that the coalition also wants to see Iraqi
investigations launched as soon as possible into
criminal acts committed in Fallujah in recent weeks -
including the killing and mutilation of four US
contractors on March 31 and an attack on an Iraqi police
station in February.
The deputy commander of
coalition military operations in Iraq, Brigadier General
Mark Kimmitt, also has warned that US Marines will
resume military operations if the insurgents fail to
meet the disarmament obligations of the agreement.
However, as with a series of earlier, unofficial
ceasefires announced in the Sunni stronghold since the
US launched a major assault there two weeks ago, some
fighters continued to attack US positions.
Reports say some of the thousands of civilians
who fled fighting in Fallujah earlier this month were
starting to trickle back. But although a few displaced
civilians were allowed to walk back to the town, Marine
checkpoints were still turning away vehicles.
More than 600 Iraqis - including many women,
children and elderly people - have been reported killed
in the fighting. But the US military says it is
impossible to verify the figure.
Nearly 100 US
soldiers have died in combat in Iraq since the start of
April.
Meanwhile, Iraqi police who are to
collect weaponry in Fallujah have confirmed that they
are preparing to re-enter the town. At a US military
base near Fallujah, a Reuters correspondent spoke to an
unnamed Iraqi police commander who was training his
officers for the mission:
"The police are going
to enter the city [of Fallujah] and efforts are under
way to facilitate the return of families. I think that
two families have already been allowed into the city.
Negotiations are going on to facilitate the return of
families and there are no problems," the police
commander said.
Some experts are questioning
whether the fighters in Fallujah will be willing to
surrender their weapons. Ian Kemp, the editor of the
London-based publication Jane's Defense Weekly, told
RFE/RL that the disarmament effort is unlikely to
succeed.
"It seems highly unlikely that the
militant groups are actually going to turn over their
weapons. There's been no incentive for the militant
groups to actually come forward and disarm. So it seems
the repeated threat of military action is not going to
compel these groups to disarm," Kemp said.
Even
if some fighters participate, Kemp says it will be
difficult for the US-led coalition to confirm how many
weapons remain. "One of the difficulties for the
coalition is [that] they have no idea how extensive the
holding of weapons are. During the Saddam [Hussein]
regime, small arms in particular - and that includes
such things as rocket-propelled grenades - were very
widely distributed," Kemp said. "And, of course, it is
these rocket-propelled grenades [and] artillery
ammunition being used to create improvised explosive
devices that really concern the coalition. So long as
that weaponry is widely distributed or hidden, it is
always going to pose a risk to the security forces
[whether they are Americans or Iraqi police.]"
Kemp said that any kind of local ceasefire deal
in Iraq would seem to be at odds with the overall US
strategy of "defeating and disarming" militants. But he
acknowledged that the Fallujah deal would be in line
with that strategy as long as fighters actually handed
in their weapons.
Kemp also says intelligence
sources suggest most of the anti-coalition fighters are
former members of Saddam's military rather than foreign
terrorists.
"It is worth noting that the
intelligence services of some of the coalition forces
believe there are foreign fighters there, but that the
hard core of the opposition is actually composed of
former Iraqi service personnel who have received their
training from the Iraqi army. They might have been in
other elements of the security forces at the time that
Saddam was overthrown. But really, these former Iraqi
security service personnel actually constitute the hard
core of the resistance movement. And the sort of weapons
that they are using, the sort of tactics they are using,
would be consistent with that sort of military
training," Kemp said.
Hachem Hassani, a Sunni
Muslim politician who represented the Iraqi Governing
Council in the Fallujah negotiations, says he agrees
with Kemp's assessment. Hassani, who has traveled to the
town every day during the past week, says most of the
people attacking US Marine positions are residents of
Fallujah, rather than foreign fighters. Thus, Hassani
concludes, it is possible that local officials could
have enough influence to calm the situation.
Ron Synovitz covers Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Iraq as well as economic transition and
human rights issues.
Copyright (c) 2004,
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut
Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
