Iraq's neighbors wait their chance
By Safa Haeri

PARIS - Following decades of Saddam Hussein's unpredictable rule, Iraq's neighbors are now interested in a stable and secure country, and no capital is seriously suggesting the United States-led coalition withdraw its forces immediately. That's just about where agreement ends, however.

Iran
Iran is the most populous country bordering Iraq and is also the biggest Shi'ite state in the world. Iran's interests in Iraq, where Shi'ites make up more than 60 percent of the population, are broad, and it has been accused by Washington of sending agents into the country to advance its interests.

Trying to take the maximum advantage from the situation the United States and its leaders face over the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, the ayatollahs who rule over Iran have gone on the offensive against the "Great Satan", urging all people over the world, but most particularly the Muslim community, to make "the maximum use" of the "golden" occasion to "tear down the bastion of Western arrogance and corruption on earth".

In a strongly worded article published at the weekend, Hussein Shari'atmadari, a high-ranking intelligence and security services officer appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the executive editor of the hardline daily Keyhan asked whether "divine duty does not urge depriving diplomats and employees of the United States and its allies of safety? Closing oil taps that have a vital importance for America and its allies is not the least action to revenge all the Muslims slaughtered at their hands," he wrote, reflecting the views of senior Iranian ruling clerics.

The first salvo was fired last week by Khamenei when, during a speech to the International Conference on Islamic Unity that coincided with the birth anniversary of the Prophet Mohammed, he criticized Islamic nations for doing nothing to "stop the United States and Zionist circles plundering Muslims' wealth".

Commenting on the incident, an Iranian journalist told Asia Times Online: "It was like the Titanic. This is a god's gift to the Iranian leaders, for, from now on, it would be very difficult for the Americans, or even the Europeans, to blame them for violating not only human rights, but also their controversial nuclear projects."

General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the commander of the ayatollahs' Praetorian Guard, said: "America has targeted the heart of the world of Islam and intends to devour the wealth of the region, and in so doing will resort to anything, and unity among Muslims is the only way out." He added: "Enemies of Islam want to bring under their control an area stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia, including the cities of Mecca and Medina. Enemies [of Islam] have covetous designs on underground resources of the Islamic countries and the wealth of the region, and are committing the most horrendous crimes against the defenseless Muslim people of Iraq."

Adel Darwish is a political commentator based in London and one of the authors of the book Unholy Babylon: The Secret History of Saddam's War. Darwish told Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Iran is concerned about the future political role of the Shi'ite majority in Iraq, as well as by how long US forces remain in Iraq.

"[Iranians] are very concerned that any future dispute, any regime that is installed there, might be used as a front line against them - the same way as West Germany was a front line against the Soviet bloc in the Cold War. That might not be true or a correct analysis, but that's actually their perception," Darwish said.

Julian Lindley-French, a security expert at the Geneva Center for Security Policy in Switzerland, said Iran would like to see someone like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in power because it would reflect the vision of the conservative leaders in Tehran. "In an ideal situation, they would like someone like Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani in power because the conservative mullahs, the clerics in Tehran, could probably do business with him," he said.

However, French said the fact that Iranians are not Arabs limits their ability to influence what is happening in Iraq and in the wider Middle East.

Darwish noted that Iran, which fought a bitter war with Iraq in the 1980s, still has several unresolved historical disputes with Baghdad. One is a border dispute concerning the Shaff al-Arab waterway. Another stems from Iraqi Kurd aspirations to create an autonomous Kurdish state. Darwish said Tehran fears Iranian Kurds might be encouraged to seek more autonomy, too.

Turkey
Turkey, another non-Arab Muslim country and a close ally of the United States, is also concerned about the future status of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey strongly opposes Kurdish statehood and fears further aspirations for autonomy will cause unrest in Turkey itself, which has a large Kurdish population. Turkey also is a close observer of the situation of the Turkoman minority in Iraq, whose status might be used as a bargaining chip to oppose Kurdish aspirations.

Darwish said other Turkish concerns in Iraq are largely economic. Ankara wants stability so that economic cooperation and trade can be renewed. "A large part of the Turkish economy relies on trade from northern Iraq and central Iraq and the oil pipeline going through Turkey," he said. "So they are very interested in having a stable Iraq, but if Iraq is fragmented, they always have the Turkoman minority card to play."

Turkey also occupies a strategic geographical position at the gateway to Europe.

At the weekend some 20,000 people rallied in Istanbul to protest against the US-led occupation of Iraq and the abuse of Iraqi prisoners, burning an effigy of Bush. The protesters, mostly supporters of pro-Islamic groups or parties, also burned US, British and Israeli flags and dollar bills and called for a national boycott of American goods.

A majority of Turks in the predominantly Muslim country opposed the war in Iraq, and the government refused to send troops to assist the US. An increase in anti-US sentiment in the country could strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-based party, and Turkey is also the only Muslim nation to belong to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Other neighbors
Saudi Arabia, Iraq's largest neighbor, is a conservative Sunni state. French said that, while the Saudi royal family wouldn't necessarily like to see Shi'ite rule in Iraq, Riyadh desires a stable neighbor most of all.

But not everyone in Saudi Arabia agrees. Darwish noted that the royal family does not fully control Saudi society, especially its different religious groups. "It might not be necessarily the Saudi royal family, but as you see in Saudi Arabia, the royal family is not in full control of the religious elements there, and those religious elements are facilitating the volunteers, what we call foreign fighters in Iraq, with Wahhabi ideology, with links to al-Qaeda," he said.

Jordan is another influential Sunni state, a US ally, and Iraq's neighbor to the west. A Hashemite king, Abdullah II, rules the kingdom. Jordan also wants stability in Iraq and seeks to renew economic cooperation and trade through Jordanian ports. As such, it is trying to downplay the prison scandal.

Darwish believes Jordan would prefer to see a Hashemite monarchy in Baghdad. "Jordan's interest would be served best with a stable Iraq under monarchy," he said. "Whether someone from King Hussein's family would do it or Sharif Ali [bin al-Hussein, a cousin of former Iraqi King Faisal II] or someone else is a secondary question." Darwish pointed out that Jordan is not united on the subject because many Palestinians, who make up half the population, support the anti-US insurgency in Iraq and have their own agenda.

Kuwait, which was invaded by Iraq in 1990, is also interested in a stable Iraqi state and will always be supportive of US and British projects there, Darwish said.

As for Syria, the US imposed sanctions on Damascus on Tuesday for its alleged support for terrorism, its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, and for its failure to stop anti-US fighters from entering Iraq. It is not clear how Syria's policies toward Baghdad will be affected by the US move.

Julian Lindley-French said all of Iraq's neighbors want US forces to stay in the country, at least for the near future. He said all states, including Iran, clearly understand that a hasty departure would create instability in the region. "I don't think they want the Americans out of Iraq until things are far more stable in Iraq," he said. "If the Americans withdraw from Iraq when there's chaos - if there's chaos - then that has security implications for Syria, for Saudi Arabia, in particular, for the Gulf states, for Jordan. None of them want that instability."

French said it is no surprise that Iraq's neighbors do not share a common vision of Iraq's future when the United States and Britain also lack such a perspective. However, he says the situation on the ground is leading everyone to search for more pragmatic solutions.

And events like the abuse of Iraqi prisoners can only help to polarize views.

(Additional reporting by Valentinas Mite of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.)