Muqtada: From outlaw to
politician By Charles Recknagel
There are mounting indications that radical
Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr intends to seize the
inauguration of a sovereign Iraqi government on June 30
as the moment to transform from an insurgent leader into
a politician.
One sign came on Wednesday as news
agencies reported that Muqtada had told all members of
his Mahdi Army who were not from the holy city of Najaf
to return to their home areas. The formal call could
mark the end to an uprising by Muqtada's supporters that
began in April and saw bloody clashes between US troops
and militiamen within the Shi'ite shrine city and
elsewhere.
Muqtada's order to his militiamen
follows weeks of negotiation between the cleric and
mainstream religious and secular leaders of the Shi'ite
community. Some of those leaders are also key members of
the new Iraqi government. The negotiators have pressed
Muqtada to end fighting that puts religious sites at
risk. They also have sought to defuse tensions over
US-backed demands that Muqtada be arrested in connection
with the murder of a rival Shi'ite cleric last year.
All of the negotiations have been secret, and it
remains unclear if the new Iraqi government and Muqtada
have now come to terms over how the arrest warrant
against him will be handled. Some influential Shi'ite
leaders are reported to back a proposed compromise
solution that would allow Muqtada to stand trial before
judges he approves of in exchange for a pledge to abide
by their decision.
There were other strong
indications this week that Muqtada was now on his way to
operating within Iraq's political order.
In a
surprise statement, US President George W Bush said
Washington would not block a political role for Muqtada
if the new Iraqi government permitted him one. "The
interim Iraqi government will deal with [Muqtada]
al-Sadr in the way they see fit," Bush said. "They are
sovereign. When we say we transfer full sovereignty, we
mean we transfer full sovereignty. And they will deal
with him appropriately."
Bush's statement
suggested a significant change in how the US now views
Muqtada. Just last month, Bush dubbed al-Sadr a "thug"
whose militia threatened efforts to build democracy in
the country. "Militias are people who are willing to
kill, intimidate, and try to take matters into their own
hands, which is not the way democracy functions," he
said. "Free societies do not allow thugs to roam streets
and hold people hostage to their whims. The Iraqis will
deal with Mr Sadr."
At that time, Muqtada was
equally uncompromising in his public statements,
pledging to fight to the death to end the US occupation.
The pledge underscored his refusal to cooperate with US
officials or the former US-appointed Iraqi Governing
Council, despite welcoming the toppling of Saddam
Hussein last year.
"I fear only God," he said.
"That is first and foremost. And I am ready to sacrifice
my blood for this country. But I call on the Iraqi
people - and this is my second message to the Iraqi
people - not to let my killing end their rejection of
the occupation and their demands for independence and
freedom."
But recent days have seen steady - if
often confusing - progress by all sides toward greater
accommodation.
As recently as last week, Iraqi
interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi announced a landmark
agreement with nine parties participating in his
government under which their militias would disband. He
said all those belonging to militias outside the deal -
including Muqtada and members of his Mahdi Army - would
be excluded from holding public office for three years.
But this week, Muqtada unilaterally said he
would create a political party that could participate in
Iraq's first round of elections scheduled for early next
year. And Iraq's President Ghazi Ajil al-Yawir praised
his decision. Al-Yawir told the media: "I kept on saying
constantly that if I were in [Muqtada's] shoes, I would
try to go to the political arena instead of raising
arms. He has supporters, he has constituents, he should
go through the political process. And I commend this
smart move on his side."
A poll commissioned by
the Coalition Provisional Authority last month found
that 81% of Iraqis said their opinion of Muqtada had
improved over the previous three months, with 64% saying
the actions of his militia had made Iraq more unified.
Some analysts call the moves toward
accommodation part of what could be an emerging "Iraqi
strategy" for dealing with insurgencies. Daniel Neep of
the Royal United Services Institute in London told
RFE/RL that this strategy emphasizes co-opting local
opponents, rather than continuing previous US efforts to
neutralize them by force.
"I think you will see
that kind of an approach, which is much more of an Iraqi
approach, of trying to not alienate local political
figures but trying to bring them in and accommodate them
- [to] bring them into the system, rather than
marginalize them. I think [you will see] that type of
approach with insurgencies based in a particular
locality or a particular community and with particular
grievances," Neep said.
Still, there are no
assurances that this month's progress toward
accommodation will continue without new flare-ups to put
it at risk. One such incident came as US troops arrested
a senior Muqtada aide and spokesman in an overnight raid
in the holy city of Karbala. Coalition forces reportedly
seized Ahmad Rida al-Hassani at his home and are now
holding him at a US base.
Such arrests - on the
heels of Muqtada's political steps - leave it unclear
how much pressure US forces will continue to exert on
his militia to ensure it ceases to be an element of
instability. Washington will continue to maintain
overall control for Iraq's security following the June
30 transfer of political power in Baghdad.
Meanwhile, violence continues unabated. On Thursday
a car bomb slammed into an Iraqi recruiting center
during rush hour, killing at least 30 and wounding 132.
A sport-utility vehicle packed with artillery shells
slammed into a crowd of people waiting to volunteer for
the Iraqi military authorities said.
The bombing
was the latest in a series of attacks on US coalition
forces and their Iraqi allies as the Americans prepare
to hand over sovereignty. Coalition authorities have
warned that attacks by insurgents could escalate in the
weeks leading to the transfer.
An explosion
before dawn Wednesday damaged a pipeline carrying crude
oil from Iraq's southern fields to the Basra oil
terminal in the Persian Gulf. Iraqi engineers had
diverted crude shipments to that pipeline after another
was bombed two days ago. Gunmen also killed Ghazi
Talabani, the official in charge of protecting the
northern oilfields, in an ambush in Kirkuk.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut
Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
