Tehran's missile test stirs
concern By Breffni O'Rourke
PRAGUE - Iran, defying international pressure,
has this week reiterated in word and deed its hard line
on defense and nuclear-energy issues.
The test
of a new, purportedly more accurate version of the
Shihab-3 missile on Wednesday coincides with statements
from Iranian leaders that they have no intention of
giving up the country's nuclear-energy program, despite
international concerns.
Speaking during a visit
to Australia, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
secretary Hassan Rohani said that his country needed the
improved Shihab-3 in view of what he called "threats"
from Israeli officials to bomb Iran's nuclear
facilities. "It's very natural that when our country is
being threatened by a foreign country we have to get
prepared to defend ourselves," he said.
The
upgraded missile features greater accuracy, and a range
of 1,300 kilometers, which means it can strike targets
in Israel and also US targets in the Persian Gulf
region. At the same time, Iranian President Mohammad
Khatami insisted that Iran would press ahead with its
nuclear program, and is ready to take the consequences
for doing so - an apparent reference to the possible
imposition of sanctions by the United Nations, at the
instigation of the United States.
"We hope to
resolve the issue through justifications, explanations
and calm. But if anyone wanted to deprive us of our
right, we and our nation would be ready to pay the price
and not to abandon our national right [to pursue a
peaceful nuclear program]," Khatami said.
Iran
denies US assertions that it is developing nuclear
weapons. But international unease has been rekindled
since earlier this month, when Iran announced it had
resumed building centrifuges to enrich uranium. Such
enriched uranium has dual civil and military
applications, in that it can be used in both reactors to
produce electricity and in nuclear weapons.
US
Deputy State Department spokesman has Adam Ereli warned
that Iran's secret nuclear-weapons program, combined
with its continued development of medium-range missiles,
poses a threat of regional destabilization. Why is
Tehran pushing so hard now, when the US is plainly
losing patience with Iran's course of action? Rohani
gave a clue when he said Washington was struggling to
deal with the consequences of its intervention in Iraq:
"I think the experience of Iraq would be sufficient for
the Americans for years to come not to think of invasion
against any other country." In other words, he is saying
that Iran feels it does not have much to fear militarily
from the US, in view of Iraq, and can go its own way.
However, analyst Alireza Nourizadeh, of the
Center for Arab and Iranian Studies in London, puts a
different interpretation on these developments. He notes
that the new Iraqi interim government of Iyad Allawi is
not as friendly to its neighbor as had been expected.
"The Iranians at the moment are facing isolation. The
government in Baghdad - which they thought was going to
be a friendly government because some of its members
have connections with Iran - has now turned against them
after the discovery of Iranian-made weapons [in the
hands of Iraqi insurgents] and also the arrest of
Iranians accused of interfering in Iraqi internal
affairs," Nourizadeh said.
Nourizadeh said that
this unexpected rejection, coupled with the warnings
from the US - as well as the talk of international
sanctions and Israeli threats - is having a big impact
on Iranian leaders. But instead of producing a change of
policy, it is producing hardline defiance from Tehran.
"Always, when Iran is threatened, the so-called
conservatives or radicals gain the upper hand and their
response is strong. Also, [reformist President] Khatami
is under pressure, he has to come up with ideas which
are acceptable to [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali]
Khamenei and the radicals. So we hear Khatami using the
same vocabulary which we used to hear from the
conservatives," Nourizadeh said.
The analyst
says that despite Tehran's hardline rhetoric, the
Iranians are basically marking time until after the US
presidential election in November, to see what sort of
administration they will be facing in Washington, and
therefore what policy options they might have.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty,
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