As the
US military swarms the Iraqi city of Najaf, a vital
decision must be made about whether it is willing to
kill Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who has already
been reported to have been wounded in air strikes on his
home. Muqtada and his Mehdi Army militia has been a
jagged thorn in the side of the US-led occupation. His
influence among the Shi'ite community, and his control
of thousands of weapon-toting fighters, has made him a
power force to contend with, a situation that is
endangering Washington's attempts to stabilize Iraq.
At first look, terminating Muqtada would destroy
the leadership of the Mehdi Army, perhaps precipitating
its collapse. However, Muqtada is more a product of
societal conditions in Iraq than an influencer of them;
the failure of Washington to effectively stabilize Iraq
has transformed Muqtada into a popular figure who speaks
to the anger and resentment that a segment of Iraq's
population holds toward the US-led occupation. Viewing
the situation from this perspective, the termination of
Muqtada would simply eliminate a figurehead, and the
Shi'ite resistance to the US-led occupation would surge
forward.
Background Muqtada, who is
said to be about 31 years old, is the son of respected
Shi'ite cleric Mohamed Sadeq al-Sadr, who was
assassinated by Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party in 1999
due to his outspoken criticism of its policies. Shortly
after the US-led invasion, Muqtada and his militia
recognized the power vacuum that had been created and
quickly supplied food and essential supplies to Iraqis
suffering the hardships of war. But it was his public,
charismatic and outspoken defiance of the US-led
occupation that earned him the most respect.
Following Washington's attempts to silence him
by closing his newspaper, the leader called his militia
into violent action and engaged in open warfare with
US-led forces. The size and dedication of his militia
caught US military leaders off-guard, and Muqtada
managed to bring an unacceptable level of casualties to
US forces, raising domestic alarm back in the United
States.
Muqtada's intransigence continued, and
the failure of Washington to appropriately isolate him
among the Iraqi populace made it difficult to stunt his
growing power. His bold actions spoke to the popular
anger held by many Iraqis over the failure of the United
States to stabilize Iraq. After his initial April
uprising, Muqtada's popularity quickly surged, making it
unwise for US forces to eliminate him from the power
equation due to fear of turning him into a martyr.
But the failure of Washington to terminate
Muqtada has given him the opportunity to consolidate his
power within the Shi'ite leadership and continue to
augment his military might. Unwilling to let this
conundrum continue, the Pentagon launched a major
military campaign against Muqtada and his militia,
vowing to "finish" him. In the words of Colonel Anthony
Haslam, the commanding officer of the 11th Marine
expeditionary unit, Iraqi and US forces are going to
"finish this fight that the Muqtada militia started".
National ramifications of Najaf
offensive Nevertheless, killing Muqtada is
fraught with dangers. For one, his death could transform
him into a martyr and intensify the anger held by the
Shi'ite community toward the US-led occupation. Such an
action could also easily anger other segments of the
Iraqi populace. On Muqtada's death, his militia would
survive, and it would likely only be a short time until
a new leader would arise to take his place. Capturing
Muqtada could also prove fruitless since he only
represents a movement, and is not the movement itself.
Muqtada understands this and is capitalizing on
these scenarios by issuing statements meant to show his
courage and defiance toward US-led forces. For example,
he recently stated, "I hope that you keep fighting even
if you see me detained or martyred." He also promised
that he would fight "until the last drop of my blood".
The other danger involved in the termination of
Muqtada is the force that will be necessary to achieve
such a result. Muqtada smartly holed himself up in
Najaf, one of the holiest cities to Shi'ite Muslims. It
is the location of the Imam Ali Shrine, where the
remains of the son-in-law to the Prophet Mohammed are
buried, and the second holiest site in the world for
Shi'ite Muslims. The shrine, which is topped by a
brilliant golden dome and minarets, contains large
amounts of treasure and invaluable antiques accumulated
over centuries. More than a million religious visitors
come to the shrine each year, and come also to an
enormous cemetery adjacent to the shrine known as the
Valley of Peace, a location where much fighting between
the Mehdi Army and US forces has already taken place.
Because Muqtada and his fighters have sought
shelter in this area, in addition to using it as a
bunker for attacks against US forces, it will be
extremely difficult to eliminate him without damaging
the shrine of Imam Ali. If US, or even Iraqi, forces
were to damage the shrine, it could cause a massive
rising tide of popular anger against US-led forces
there.
Such anger could result in a new popular
uprising against US-led forces, a development that would
further destabilize the Iraqi state. The last time that
Najaf was under siege was during the rule of Saddam, in
which he assaulted the city to put down an uprising in
1991. While Saddam succeeded in storming the shrine and
killing the militants inside, his perceived disrespect
of such a holy site turned most Shi'ites against his
rule, even those who had supported him in the past.
Indeed, as US forces prepared for their assault
on Najaf, thousands of Shi'ites took to the streets in
Nasiriyah and set fire to the office of interim Prime
Minister Iyad Allawi's political party. Once US and
Iraqi forces began to finally assault Najaf, 5,000
Muqtada sympathizers marched through the streets of
Basra, demanding that the siege end immediately. Also,
in Nasiriyah, workers at an oil-pumping station halted
operations to protest the government's backing of the US
offensive in Najaf. A statement released by the workers
explained, "We stopped pumping in protest of the inhuman
conduct of the interim government and its cooperation
with the occupation forces to ransack the holy city of
Najaf and insult the Shi'ites, their symbols and holy
places."
Furthermore, 16 members of Najaf's
30-member provincial council resigned in protest at the
offensive. Speaking to the press, the council said, "We
have decided to resign due to what has befallen Najaf
and all of Iraq from the hasty US invasion and
bombardment of Najaf."
In an interview with USA
Today, retired army General Daniel Christman succinctly
explained the implications of further alienating the
Shi'ite population: "The great vulnerability we have is
to turn the mass of the Shi'ite population against the
coalition. We can win every tactical battle, but lose
the war if we don't put the individual engagements
inside a larger political context."
Global
ramifications Finally, the global ramifications
of eliminating Muqtada must be carefully considered. Not
only could damage to the shrine cause a new popular
uprising against US-led forces inside Iraq, it could
also precipitate more instances of "blowback" on US
interests throughout the world. Because 120 million
Shi'ite Muslims are located across the globe -
especially in Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Tajikistan,
India and Pakistan - any damage to Najaf's holy sites
could help stir violent hatred toward the United States
among this religious group.
Therefore, any
movement to eliminate Muqtada has to be cautiously
weighed against the positives and negatives of such a
policy decision. While Muqtada has proven to be a very
difficult power force to contend with, he has fortified
himself quite well, and attempts to remove him from the
power equation could cause the opposite effect and
actually strengthen those forces that are calling for
the removal of US-led troops from Iraq, in addition to
increasing the chances of another terror attack against
US interests either at home or abroad.
Published with permission of thePower and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the
globe. All comments should be directed tocontent@pinr.com.
