Key findings "A Failed Transition" is the most comprehensive
accounting of the mounting costs of the Iraq war on the
United States, Iraq and the world. Among its major
findings are stark figures about the escalation of costs
in these most recent three months of "transition" to
Iraqi rule, a period that the Bush administration
claimed would be characterized by falling human and
economic costs.
1. US military casualties
have been highest during the "transition": US
military casualties (wounded and killed) stand at a
monthly average of 747 since the so-called "transition"
to Iraqi rule on June 29. This contrasts with a monthly
average of 482 US military casualties during the
invasion (March 20-May 1, 2003) and a monthly average of
415 during the occupation (May 2, 2003-June 28, 2004).
2. Non-Iraqi contractor deaths have also
been highest during the "transition": There has
also been a huge increase in the average monthly deaths
of US and other non-Iraqi contractors since the
"transition". On average, 17.5 contractors have died
each month since the "transition", versus 7.6 contractor
deaths per month during the previous 14 months of
occupation.
3. Estimated strength of Iraqi
resistance skyrockets: Because the US military
occupation remains in place, the "transition" has failed
to win Iraqi support or diminish Iraqi resistance to the
occupation. According to Pentagon estimates, the number
of Iraqi resistance fighters has quadrupled between
November of 2003 and early September 2004, from 5,000 to
20,000. The deputy commander of coalition forces in
Iraq, British Major-General Andrew Graham, indicated to
Time magazine in early September that he thinks the
20,000 estimate is too low; he estimates Iraqi
resistance strength at 40,000-50,000. This rise is even
starker when juxtaposed to Brookings Institution
estimates that an additional 24,000 Iraqi resistance
fighters have been detained or killed between May 2003
and August 2004.
4. US-led coalition
shrinks further after "transition": The number
of countries identified as members of the coalition
backing the US-led war started with 30 on March 18,
2003, then grew in the early months of the war. Since
then, eight countries have withdrawn their troops and
Costa Rica has demanded to be taken off the coalition
list. At the war's start, coalition countries
represented 19.1% of the world's population; today, the
remaining countries with forces in Iraq represent only
13.6% of the world's population.
HIGHLIGHTS I. Costs to the United
States A. Human costs to the US and
allies US military deaths: Between the
start of war on March 19, 2003 and September 22, 2004,
1,175 coalition forces were killed, including 1,040 US
military. Of the total, 925 were killed after President
George W Bush declared the end of combat operations on
May 1, 2003. Over 7,413 US troops have been wounded
since the war began, 6,953 (94%) since May 1, 2003.
Contractor deaths: As of September 22,
there has been an estimated 154 civilian contractors,
missionaries and civilian worker deaths since May 1,
2004. Of these, 52 have been identified as Americans.
Journalist deaths: Forty-four
international media workers have been killed in Iraq as
of September 22, including 33 since Bush declared the
end of combat operations. Eight of the dead worked for
US companies.
B. Security costs
Terrorist recruitment and action:
According to the London-based International Institute
for Strategic Studies, al-Qaeda's membership is now at
18,000, with 1,000 active in Iraq. The State
Department's 2003 "Patterns of Global Terrorism"
documented 625 deaths and 3,646 injuries due to
terrorist attacks in 2003. The report acknowledged that
"significant incidents" increased from 60% of total
attacks in 2002 to 84% in 2003.
Low US
credibility: Polls reveal that the war has damaged
the US government's standing and credibility in the
world. Surveys in eight European and Arab countries
demonstrated broad public agreement that the war has
hurt, rather than helped, the "war on terrorism". At
home, 52% of Americans polled by the Annenberg Election
Survey disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq.
Military mistakes: A number of former
military officials have criticized the war, including
retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, who has charged
that by manufacturing a false rationale for war,
abandoning traditional allies, propping up and trusting
Iraqi exiles, and failing to plan for post-war Iraq, the
Bush administration made the US less secure.
Low troop morale and lack of equipment: A
March 2004 army survey found 52% of soldiers reporting
low morale, and three-fourths reporting they were poorly
led by their officers. Lack of equipment has been an
ongoing problem. The army did not fully equip soldiers
with bullet-proof vests until June 2004, forcing many
families to purchase them out of their own pockets.
Loss of first responders: National Guard
troops make up almost one-third of the US Army troops
now in Iraq. Their deployment puts a particularly heavy
burden on their home communities because many are "first
responders", including police, firefighters and
emergency medical personnel. For example, 44% of the
country's police forces have lost officers to Iraq. In
some states, the absence of so many Guard troops has
raised concerns about the ability to handle natural
disasters.
Use of private contractors: An
estimated 20,000 private contractors are carrying out
work in Iraq traditionally done by the military, despite
the fact that they often lack sufficient training and
are not accountable to the same guidelines and reviews
as military personnel.
C. Economic
costs The bill so far: Congress has
approved $151.1 billion for Iraq. Congressional leaders
anticipate an additional supplemental appropriation of
$60 billion after the election in November.
Long-term impact on US economy: Economist
Doug Henwood has estimated that the war bill will add up
to an average of at least $3,415 for every US household.
Another economist, James Galbraith of the University of
Texas, predicts that while war spending may boost the
economy initially, over the long term it is likely to
bring a decade of economic troubles, including an
expanded trade deficit and high inflation.
Oil prices: US crude oil prices spiked at
$48 per barrel on August 19, the highest level since
1983, a development that most analysts attribute at
least in part to the deteriorating situation in Iraq.
According to a mid-May CBS survey, 85% of Americans said
they had been affected measurably by higher gas prices.
According to one estimate, if crude oil prices stay
around $40 a barrel for a year, US gross domestic
product will decline by more than $50 billion.
Economic impact on military families:
Since the beginning of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
364,000 reserve troops and National Guard soldiers have
been called for military service, serving tours of duty
that often last 20 months. Studies show that between 30%
and 40% of reservists and National Guard members earn a
lower salary when they leave civilian employment for
military deployment. Army Emergency Relief has reported
that requests from military families for food stamps and
subsidized meals increased "several hundred percent"
between 2002 and 2003.
D. Social costs
US budget and social programs: The
Bush administration's combination of massive spending on
the war and tax cuts for the wealthy means less money
for social spending. The $151.1 billion expenditure for
the war through this year could have paid for: close to
23 million housing vouchers; health care for over 27
million uninsured Americans; salaries for nearly 3
million elementary school teachers; 678,200 new fire
engines; over 20 million Head Start slots for children;
or health care coverage for 82 million children. A
leaked memo from the White House to domestic agencies
outlines major cuts following the election, including
funding for education, Head Start, home ownership, job
training, medical research and homeland security.
Social costs to the military: To meet
troop requirements in Iraq, the army has extended the
tours of duty for soldiers. These extensions have been
particularly difficult for reservists, many of whom
never expected to face such long separations from their
jobs and families. According to military policy,
reservists are not supposed to be on assignment for more
than 12 months every five-six years. To date, the
average tour of duty for all soldiers in Iraq has been
320 days. A recent army survey revealed that more than
half of soldiers said they would not re-enlist.
Costs to veteran health care: About 64%
of the more than 7,000 US soldiers injured in Iraq
received wounds that prevented them from returning to
duty. One trend has been an increase in amputees, the
result of improved body armor that protects vital organs
but not extremities. As in previous wars, many soldiers
are likely to have received ailments that will not be
detected for years to come. The Veterans Administration
healthcare system is not prepared for the swelling
number of claims. In May, the House of Representatives
approved funding for FY 2005 that is $2.6 billion less
than needed, according to veterans' groups.
Mental health costs: The New England
Journal of Medicine reported in July that one in six
soldiers returning from war in Iraq showed signs of
post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression, or
severe anxiety. Only 23% to 40% of respondents in the
study who showed signs of a mental disorder had sought
mental health care.
II. Costs to Iraq A. Human costs Iraqi deaths and
injuries: As of September 22, between 12,800 and
14,843 Iraqi civilians had been killed as a result of
the US invasion and ensuing occupation, while an
estimated 40,000 Iraqis injured. During "major combat"
operations, between 4,895 and 6,370 Iraqi soldiers and
insurgents were killed.
Effects of depleted
uranium (DU): The health impacts of the use of
depleted uranium weaponry in Iraq are yet to be known.
The Pentagon estimates that US and British forces used
1,100 to 2,200 tons of weaponry made from the toxic and
radioactive metal during the March 2003 bombing
campaign. Many scientists blame the far smaller amount
of DU weapons used in the Persian Gulf War of 1991 for
illnesses among US soldiers, as well as a sevenfold
increase in child birth defects in Basra in southern
Iraq.
B. Security costs Rise in
crime: Murder, rape and kidnapping have skyrocketed
since March 2003, forcing Iraqi children to stay home
from school and women to stay off the streets at night.
Violent deaths rose from an average of 14 per month in
2002 to 357 per month in 2003.
Psychological
impact: Living under occupation without the most
basic security has devastated the Iraqi population. A
poll conducted by the Iraq Center for Research and
Strategic Studies in June found that 80% of Iraqis
believe that coalition forces should leave either
immediately or directly after the election.
C. Economic costs
Unemployment: Iraqi joblessness
doubled from 30% before the war to 60% in the summer of
2003. While the Bush administration now claims that
unemployment has dropped, the US is only employing
120,000 Iraqis, of a workforce of 7 million, in
reconstruction projects.
Corporate war
profiteering: Most of Iraq's reconstruction has been
contracted out to US companies, rather than experienced
Iraqi firms. Top contractor Halliburton is being
investigated for charging $160 million for meals that
were never served to troops and $61 million in cost
overruns on fuel deliveries. Halliburton employees also
took $6 million in kickbacks from sub-contractors, while
other employees have reported extensive waste, including
the abandonment of $85,000 worth of trucks because they
had flat tires.
Iraq's oil economy:
Anti-occupation violence has prevented Iraq from
capitalizing on its oil assets. There have been an
estimated 118 attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure since
June 2003. By September, oil production still had not
reached pre-war levels and major attacks caused oil
exports to plummet to a 10-month low in August.
D. Social costs Health
infrastructure: After more than a decade of
crippling sanctions, Iraq's health facilities were
further damaged during the war and post-invasion
looting. Iraq's hospitals continue to suffer from lack
of supplies and an overwhelming number of patients.
Education: The United Nations Children's
Fund (UNICEF) estimates that more than 200 schools were
destroyed in the conflict and thousands more were looted
in the chaos following the fall of Saddam Hussein. The
State Department reported on September 15 that
"significant obstacles remain in maintaining security
for civilian/military reconstruction, logistical support
and distribution for donations, equipment, textbooks and
supplies".
Environment: The US-led attack
damaged water and sewage systems and the country's
fragile desert ecosystem. It also resulted in oil well
fires that spewed smoke across the country and left
unexploded ordnance that continues to endanger the Iraqi
people and environment. Mines and unexploded ordnance
cause an estimated 20 casualties per month.
E. Human-rights costs Even
with Saddam overthrown, Iraqis continue to face
human-rights violations from occupying forces. In
addition to the widely publicized humiliation and
torture of prisoners, abuse has been widespread
throughout the post-September 11 military operations,
with over 300 allegations of abuse in Afghanistan, Iraq
and Guantanamo. As of mid-August, only 155
investigations into the existing 300 allegations had
been completed.
F. Sovereignty
costs Despite the proclaimed "transfer of
sovereignty" to Iraq, the country continues to be
occupied by US and coalition troops and has severely
limited political and economic independence. The interim
government does not have the authority to reverse the
nearly 100 orders by former Coalition Provisional
Authority head L Paul Bremer that, among other things,
allow for the privatization of Iraq's state-owned
enterprises and prohibit preferences for domestic firms
in reconstruction.
III. Costs to the
world A. Human costs While
Americans make up the vast majority of military and
contractor personnel in Iraq, other US-allied
"coalition" troops have suffered 135 war casualties in
Iraq. In addition, the focus on Iraq has diverted
international resources and attention away from
humanitarian crises such as in Sudan.
B.
Disabling international law The unilateral US
decision to go to war in Iraq violated the United
Nations charter, setting a dangerous precedent for other
countries to seize any opportunity to respond militarily
to claimed threats, whether real or contrived, that must
be "preempted". The US military has also violated the
Geneva Convention, making it more likely that in the
future, other nations will ignore these protections in
their treatment of civilian populations and detainees.
C. Undermining the United Nations At every turn, the Bush administration has attacked
the legitimacy and credibility of the UN, undermining
the institution's capacity to act in the future as the
centerpiece of global disarmament and conflict
resolution. The efforts of the Bush administration to
gain UN acceptance of an Iraqi government that was not
elected but rather installed by occupying forces
undermines the entire notion of national sovereignty as
the basis for the UN charter. It was on this basis that
secretary general Kofi Annan referred specifically to
the vantage point of the UN charter in his September
2004 finding that the war was illegal.
D.
Enforcing coalitions Faced with opposition
in the UN Security Council, the US government attempted
to create the illusion of multilateral support for the
war by pressuring other governments to join a so-called
"coalition of the willing". This not only circumvented
UN authority, but also undermined democracy in many
coalition countries, where public opposition to the war
was as high as 90%. As of the middle of September, only
29 members of the "coalition of the willing" had forces
in Iraq, in addition to the US. These countries,
combined with US, make up less than 14% of the world's
population.
E. Costs to the global
economy The $151.1 billion spent by the US
government on the war could have cut world hunger in
half and covered HIV/AIDS medicine, childhood
immunization and clean water and sanitation needs of the
developing world for more than two years. As a factor in
the oil price hike, the war has created concerns of a
return to the "stagflation" of the 1970s. Already, the
world's major airlines are expecting an increase in
costs of $1 billion or more per month.
F.
Undermining global security and disarmament The US-led war and occupation have galvanized
international terrorist organizations, placing people
not only in Iraq but around the world at greater risk of
attack. The State Department's annual report on
international terrorism reported that in 2003 there was
the highest level of terror-related incidents deemed
"significant" than at any time since the US began
issuing these figures.
G. Global
environmental costs US-fired depleted
uranium weapons have contributed to pollution of Iraq's
land and water, with inevitable spillover effects in
other countries. The heavily polluted Tigris River, for
example, flows through Iraq, Iran and Kuwait.
H. Human rights The Justice
Department memo assuring the White House that torture
was legal stands in stark violation of the International
Convention Against Torture (of which the US is a
signatory). This, combined with the widely publicized
mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners by US military and
intelligence officials, gave new license for torture and
mistreatment by governments around the world.
