Now for the real battle of
Samarrah By Valentinas Mite
US and Iraqi forces say they have succeeded in
their drive to re-establish government control over the
Sunni Triangle city of Samarrah. US Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld, speaking to a New York-based think-tank
on Tuesday, said other such military offensives are
likely to follow in an effort to wrest control of key
cities away from militants.
But analysts warn that any
such victories may only be temporary and that military means
alone cannot crush the Iraqi resistance. Yahia Said
is a researcher specializing in Iraq and other transition
nations at the London School of Economics and
Political Science. He told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that
the US and the Iraqi interim government must seek the
cooperation of local residents to ensure any military
victories are irreversible: "In the long term, you need
a certain level of consensus from the population -
cooperation by the population - to control the city, and
this is not happening."
Though the city may have
been retaken, residents and hospital officials in
Samarrah say many civilians, including women and
children, were killed or injured in the fighting. Said
noted that relying solely on military operations may
only serve to antagonize the population before
elections.
He said the Iraqi government also
needs to find ways to win the hearts and minds of the
population: "I think a big part of [the problem] is a
feeling among many people - especially in certain areas
- that they have been disfranchised, that they have been
shut out of the political process, that the people in
the government in Baghdad are mostly exiles and do not
represent them."
Toby Dodge monitors developments in
Iraq at Queen Mary College at the University of
London. In an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp (BBC), he
said establishing effective civilian control of such
Iraqi trouble spots will be the government's most
challenging task. He said the US military may be able to
occupy towns and cities, but that there needs to be
civilian institutions in place to run them.
Dodge said Samarrah will likely be the least
difficult of the Sunni cities north of Baghdad to get
back under government control because it has a history
of opposition to Saddam Hussein. Dodge said Samarrah
could be called "an easy first stage" in the whole
operation.
Saad al-Hassani, a political analyst
at Baghdad University, said the interim government has
little choice but to ask US troops to help weed out the
insurgents. Al-Hassani said no government can permit
areas of a country to remain outside its control.
However, Hassani said that after
rebel-controlled territories fall under government
control, local residents should be encouraged to
participate in new power structures: "The second
possibility is to encourage people, the people of
Samarrah, to have their own rule, among the people of
Samarrah themselves."
He said the peace needed
to conduct successful elections in January will come
only if people living in the rebellious towns take power
into their own hands and see an advantage in cooperating
with the government in Baghdad.
In an article in
the New York Times, Thomas X Hammes, a fellow at the
Institute for National Strategic Studies of the National
Defense University in Washington, said that
"insurgencies are first and foremost political
struggles, not military ones". The only way to defeat
them, he says, is to gain the widespread support of the
people. "Military action can only support the political
effort," said Hammes.
Meanwhile, Rumsfeld's
comments would suggest that similar military offensives
are likely to come in Fallujah, the heart of Sunni
militancy, as well as Baquba and the Baghdad district of
Sadr City. Rumsfeld said Monday that a "series of safe
havens" for insurgents will not be allowed in Iraq.
His comments came on a day of
widespread violence in the country. At least 26 Iraqis were
killed and some 100 wounded on Monday in a series of car-bomb
attacks in the capital and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, US warplanes bombed suspected insurgent positions in
Sadr City overnight. Heavy fighting between US troops
and insurgents was also reported in the area, a known
stronghold of radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut
Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036.
