Searching for legitimacy in
democracy By Jonathan Feiser
In the lead-up to the January elections in Iraq,
contending local and international power forces are
threatening the validity of the election process. The
apparent rush by the United States to initiate the
elections will likely cause a less than idealistic
response, anticipated by many US officials. Due to
Iraq's precarious situation, the most that the elections
can hope for are cosmetic changes to Iraq's political
situation. At worst, the elections could move many
regions of Iraq one step closer to fragmentation.
Contending power forces A major
problem with the January elections is the continued
presence of Saddam Hussein-era power factions - ie
groups based on religion or ethnicity - that have
routinely struggled and conflicted with Iraq's
historical leaders. Furthermore, over time such factions
have become locally perceived solutions to the
repression of the past and chaos of the present. As a
political unit, Iraq is in a state of transition that
continues to demonstrate characteristics of a weak
state.
In a weak state such as Iraq, the
tendency of the population is to embrace regional and
local leaders as the most qualified parties to govern,
instead of looking to a new centralized government. In
most cases, moreover, local leaders retain the ethnic
and religious essence that their constituencies relate
to whereas a central government is perceived to be
supported by US interests, regardless of what the facts
may be.
Thus, the potential consequences of
rushed elections present an immediate dilemma for the
US. Elections in January could someday produce a
democratic system, but in the short run such elections
will not defuse the situation on the ground. Moreover,
the impact of elections in Iraq will more than likely
fail to deter - and possibly even empower - the
influence of indigenous and preferred leaders, who
themselves may seek to undermine or, at the very least,
take advantage of the weaknesses innate in fledgling
democratic systems. In sum, the overeager approach
toward elections represents an inadvertent diversion
from US policy despite the advertised intentions to
indoctrinate Western values into Iraqi society.
One solid example of this dilemma exists in the
north, where the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the
Kurdistan Democratic Party remain deadlocked toward
facilitating a clear sign of integration toward the
Kurdistan regional government. Indeed, this was the
region where many observers were optimistic in their
pro-democratic appraisals. In truth, the upcoming
national elections seek to negate the very structures
that provided Kurdish autonomy and sanctuary in the
past. If elections do occur, they may yield results
lacking not only in substance, but also in local and
regional legitimacy, for it is unlikely that the Kurds
will obey centralized rule if that rule weakens the
power that they have entertained for more than a decade.
Another reality is that some leaders, and those
who follow them, lack any stable ideological motivation
or deep set values toward reform; rather, they seek to
establish their own inlets of stability and/or power. In
addition, they may be suspicious of power in any form of
governmental institution due to the societal scarring
caused by the Ba'athist era under Saddam.
As
seen through the recent elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
underlying factors such as political apathy and
nationalism remain underpinning themes, not necessarily
demands for drastic political reform, especially through
the perceived hands of a foreign power. And although
such shifts to either the extreme political left or
right are often common in Western countries, the
consequences for Iraq would likely result in a
disastrous relapse of the violence that has plagued its
past.
The Kurdish examples The
northern Kurdish sections articulate a stalwart example
of the potential negative consequences of immediate
elections in Iraq. Two examples demand attention.
The first example deals with the inter-tribal
and inter-ethnic dimension central to Iraq's present
dilemma. In a recent occurrence, Arab tribes demanded
that the city of Kirkuk lapse to its previous status as
it was during the Ba'athist regime, where Arabs held
sway over Kurds. Clearly, the demands of these Arab
tribes is tantamount to the loss of a Kurdish power
base.
The second example also involves the
rationally defensive nature of the Kurds. A recent
development found Kurds uniting together with the
intentions of reprisals over the death of Kurds in Mosul
at the hands of Arab foreign fighters. Also in this
development, such ad hoc groups of Kurds have actively
begun to take violent aim at Islamic resistance groups,
regardless of whether they are Shi'ite or Sunni.
Developments such as these signify that
frustration within a given political system - especially
one in transition - often exists as an effective
precursor for reactionary violence fed by defensiveness,
intolerance, and opportunism. In the case of northern
Iraq, Kurdish-Arab ethnic violence was conditioned by
the previous de jure policies of the Saddam regime and
is likely to continue due to the transitional policies
of the present government and those to come.
What lies ahead? These trends
illustrate that the occurrence of an election initiated
too soon and based predominately on the standards of
international pressure is an almost desperate grasp for
some semblance of peace. Likewise, the January elections
will not portent any change of the patterns and
frictions that have become so much a part of the Iraqi
state since its birth.
At present, Iraq is still
an artificial, albeit functioning, state. Unlike the
Western states that remain divided on Iraq's fate, what
many perceive as Iraqi history continues to embody a
sense of a prenatal nationhood. At this level, how
governing is delegated reflects the legitimacy it
exudes. In the case of Iraq, immediate elections will be
unable to de-link or even breach the power forces found
in ethnic, religious, and even traditional factions that
remain products of time and not expediency.
Published with permission of thePower and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the
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