THE ROVING EYE Zarqawi and al-Qaeda,
unlikely bedfellows By Pepe Escobar
It's a match made in (virtual) mujahideen
paradise: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his group al-Tawhid
wal-Jihad (Unity and Holy War), swearing loyalty to
Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda on the Internet.
Now
that's a real October surprise. The "Zarqawi" letter, in
Arabic, goes straight to the point: "Oath of loyalty of
leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi towards the Sheikh of the
Mujahideen, Osama bin Laden." It is signed by "Zarqawi".
It qualifies bin Laden as the supreme jihad commander.
And then the most intriguing part: it implies that
al-Qaeda had finally recognized the merits of Zarqawi's
strategy. "Slowly our honorable brothers in al-Qaeda
began to understand the strategy of al-Tawhid wal-Jihad
in the land of two rivers ... and they began to rejoice
over our program." That's odd: if al-Qaeda thinks
Zarqawi is so effective, it should consider joining
al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, and not the other way around.
Washington officials say the letter may be an
al-Qaeda warning call before an imminent major attack
against the United States. Cynics say the letter -
showing up only two weeks before the presidential
election - may be a warped endorsement of President
George W Bush on the heels of Russian President Vladimir
Putin's (according to whom not voting for Bush means
supporting terrorism).
The letter mentions that
Zarqawi and al-Qaeda had been talking "for eight
months". This connects to the still-unexplained story of
a "Zarqawi" courier captured last February in Iraq
before delivering a message to bin Laden. The message,
an e-mail, was retrieved; but "Zarqawi", at the time,
seemed to be more interested in fomenting civil war in
Iraq than in ganging up with bin Laden.
Surprise, surprise This latest
letter shows up right at the beginning of Ramadan - the
Muslim holy month - and the imminence of another
devastating US attack on Fallujah. Certainly it could be
interpreted as a rallying call to all members of the
Sunni resistance. The letter simultaneously showed up
online on an Islamist Internet forum regularly connected
to al-Tawhid wal-Jihad and a newsgroup close to
al-Qaeda. And it makes sense in terms of the history of
Islam: in times of jihad, regional commanders end up
pledging allegiance to a supreme commander.
But
the letter doesn't make sense when one considers the
bitter strategic split between Jordanian Zarqawi and bin
Laden. This is the first time ever that al-Tawhid
wal-Jihad has even considered abdicating its ruthless
sovereignty. The al-Qaeda nucleus is a mix of hardcore
Saudi Wahhabis and the Egyptians of Ayman al-Zawahiri's
Islamic Jihad. Zarqawi's group contains basically
Jordanians, Palestinians and Syrians. They are Salafis,
Islamic purists. The incompatibilities are not only
ideological, but also methodological: al-Qaeda never
attempted kidnappings or beheadings of Muslims. On the
other hand, the black and orange brigades in Iraq are
growing - these are disgruntled Sunni Iraqis
increasingly attracted by the hardcore methods of
al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, whose symbol is black and orange.
European Union experts from a counter-terrorism
special cell in Brussels tell Asia Times Online, "We are
working on the possibility that the letter may be an
attempt to justify the current offensive by Iyad
Allawi's government against the Sunni insurgency."
That's also the predominant popular view in the Middle
East. But counter-terrorism experts also worry about the
likelihood of a code message for al-Qaeda fighters -
assuming the letter is authentic. The Brussels experts
are particularly intrigued by the mention of Ramadan as
the "month of gifts and triumphs". Fundamentalisms are
mutually attractive. The key consequence of Bush, a
born-again Christian, invading secular Iraq has been the
convergence of all sorts of Islamic fanatics in
Mesopotamia. As much as apocalyptic Christians view the
"war on terror" as a mission from God, apocalyptic
Islamists would view "Zarqawi's" allegiance to al-Qaeda
as transcending a mere war and placing the whole thing
as a do-or-die clash of civilizations.
In the
end, this could be merely another US intelligence "black
operation". Allawi wants Fallujah to hand him Zarqawi.
Fallujah tribal leaders say Zarqawi is not in the city.
Now, with alleged "proof" in writing of a Zarqawi-bin
Laden link, there are no holds barred to leveling
Fallujah. This October surprise from "the land of two
rivers" is far from being the last.
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