Conservatives out of the blocks
first By Bill Samii
Two
conservative figures have announced their intention to
be presidential candidates, although a date for the
Iranian election has yet to be announced. Continuing
controversy over who should or should not be a candidate
makes it clear that Iran's right wing is not as
monolithic as the conservatives' domination of the
February 2004 parliamentary election would lead one to
believe.
The first person to announce his
candidacy for the 2005 presidential election is former
foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, who is currently an
adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Radio
Farda reported. Velayati is considered a conservative,
and he met with leaders of the hardline Islamic
Coalition Party just a few days before announcing his
candidacy.
At that meeting, according to a
commentary in the Farhang-i Ashti, Velayati emphasized
the need for unity among the conservatives. He was
implying that the differences between young
right-wingers and middle-aged ones (fundamentalist vs
pro-values) are too great right now for them to agree on
a candidate. Velayati falls somewhere in the middle of
the rightist current, according to the commentary,
between Expediency Council chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Tehran mayor Mahmud Ahmadinejad.
Velayati represents the "middle-aged right", according
to the commentary.
Other prospective
conservative candidates include former state
broadcasting chief Ali Larijani and Tehran parliamentary
representative Ahmad Tavakoli. "I hope to be able to run
in the presidential election," Tavakoli said at a
December 6 rally at Tehran University, IRNA reported.
Two days earlier, Tavakoli said in Tehran, "I am serious
about participating in the presidential election," Mehr
News Agency reported. Tavakoli ran for president in 2001
and in 1993, according to the agency.
Prospective candidates do not actually register
until some five weeks before the election, and an actual
election date has not been determined yet due to a
dispute between the Interior Ministry and Guardians
Council. The conservatives can bide their time,
therefore, until they throw their weight behind a
candidate. This may explain Islamic Coalition Party
secretary general Mohammad Nabi Habibi's December 2
statement in Tabriz, when he said his organization will
not back a candidate other than the one backed by the
overall "fundamentalist trend", IRNA reported.
There is little question, however, that the
possible candidacy of Hashemi-Rafsanjani is foremost in
the minds of political observers. Some Iranians seem
enthusiastic about this prospect. "We support
Hashemi-Rafsanjani in the presidential elections," Saber
Mir-Atai, deputy secretary general of the Islamic
Homeland Party (Hizb-i Mihan-i Islami), said on December
6, according to ILNA. Mir-Atai said the party's support
depends on the candidate's continuation of Khatami's
reforms, the inclusion of reformists in the cabinet and
government and "moderation of economic programs".
Mir-Atai did not explain what this means.
Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, secretary general of the
politically pragmatic Moderation and Development Party
(Hizb-i Ettedal va Toseh), said on December 3 that his
party backs Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Mehr News Agency
reported.
"Opinion polls show that [Ayatollah
Ali-Akbar] Hashemi-Rafsanjani is ahead of Velayati,
Ahmadinejad and Larijani, and he can win the
presidential election if he decides to enter the
election race," Hojatoleslam Ali-Akbar
Fallahian-Khuzestani said during a question-and-answer
session at the al-Hadi seminary in Qom on December 2,
Fars News Agency reported. Fallahian said Tehran mayor
Ahmadinejad is a competent official who is viewed more
favorably than Velayati or Larijani, but the
conservatives have not decided whether to back or reject
his candidacy. If Hashemi-Rafsanjani decides against
being a candidate, Fallahian speculated, the
conservatives probably will back Velayati.
Other
Iranians are reluctant to see Hashemi-Rafsanjani as a
candidate. Conservative Mashhad representative Teimur
Ali Asgar said Hashemi-Rafsanjani could be a strategist,
but "the people have become modernist and would like Mr
Hashemi to leave the field to younger people," Aftab-i
Yazd reported on December 7. Asgari predicted that
Velayati would withdraw his candidacy to support
Hashemi-Rafsanjani's candidacy, Mehr News Agency
reported on December 6. Mustafa Kavakebian, secretary
general of the reformist Mardom Salari party, said on
December 4 that Hashemi-Rafsanjani is one of the
country's leading figures, ILNA reported, but it is
better for somebody who has completed two presidential
terms to let a new candidate fill the slot.
Kabutar-Ahang representative Reza Talai-Nik predicted
that Hashemi-Rafsanjani's candidacy would reduce the
overall number of candidates by 70-80%, Farhang-i Ashti
reported.
Robin Wright did a very useful
classification of the conservative groupings in the
November 29 Washington Post. The most puritanical group
is the "ideological conservatives" or Kayhanis, whose
views appear in the Kayhan newspaper. The most
influential group is the "new right" or
neo-conservatives, who dominated the February 2004
parliamentary polls and whose platform mixes theocracy
and modernism. The "pragmatic conservatives" are
connected with the Moderation and Development Party and
the Executives of Construction Party. "Traditional
conservatives," Wright noted, "tend to be less involved
in political affairs."
The controversy over
candidates goes beyond the 2005 presidential election
and it will have a direct impact on Iran's political
future. The country's reformists find themselves on
their back foot, trying to regain the momentum they lost
after the February 2004 parliamentary election. If the
conservatives seem unsure of their preferred candidates,
the reformists are in even worse shape. Nobody has come
forward yet as a serious candidate and the initial first
choice, former premier Mir Hoseyn Moussavi, said he was
not interested.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL
Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave
NW, Washington DC 20036
