Warning for Iraq's unneighborly
neighbors By Charles Recknagel
PRAGUE - US President George W Bush delivered
his warning to Damascus and Tehran in Washington this
week, but gave no specifics as to what motivated it or
what actions he might take if it is ignored.
He
said only that "we will make it clear to both Syria and
Iran that ... meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq
is not in their interests".
But Bush's remarks
seemed to build on a mounting wave of strong criticism
of Tehran and Damascus coming from Iraqi interim
government officials in recent days. Interim Defense
Minister Hazim al-Sha'lan al-Khuza'i said in Baghdad
Wednesday that Iran was actively supporting insurgent
groups inside Iraq. "We have discovered that the key to
terrorism is in Iran," he said. "This country, as I said
previously, is the No 1 enemy of Iraq."
The
defense minister specifically accused Iran and Syria of
backing insurgent groups led by loyalists of Saddam
Hussein and Jordanian-born extremist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi. "Iran is running a huge terrorism ring in
Iraq," he said. "The Iranian intelligence, the Syrian
intelligence, and the former Iraqi intelligence are
cooperating with the group of al-Zarqawi."
The
charges by Sha'lan come close on the heels of statements
by other top Iraqi officials last week, suggesting
Damascus is allowing former Iraqi Ba'thists to
coordinate insurgent activities in Iraq from Syria.
Iraqi interim President Ghazi al-Yawir accused Syria of
offering a "safe haven" to former top Ba'athist
officials who fled Iraq with state funds. Yawir's
national security adviser said that retaking Fallujah
had uncovered a money trail between the Ba'athist exiles
and insurgents. He said, "It is very difficult to
convince me that the Syrian government does not know
about these activities."
Both Iran and Syria
deny promoting instability in Iraq. They say they are
trying to block any infiltration into Iraq by insurgents
across their borders.
Analysts say US and Iraqi
officials appear determined to publicly charge Tehran
and Damascus with meddling in Iraq. But the often vague
nature of the charges leaves many observers questioning
how well the accusations are substantiated and wondering
why they are being aired now.
Turi Munthe of the
Royal United Services Institute in London told RFE/RL
that there is evidence that people and money are
entering Iraq from Syria and Iran. But he said that in
Syria's case, the activity does not appear to be
state-supported.
"A kind of infiltration from
Syria that we are getting is not at all state-run or
state-backed. Syria has got large borders with Iraq
which are quite difficult to patrol. And a lot of people
seem to have been slipping in, and many Syrians have
come through to fight against occupation forces in Iraq
and have been welcomed into their fellow Sunni Arab
insurgents' bosom. My sense is that, in fact, the
numbers we are looking at are quite small, but yet they
represent an event, and this is an event that Washington
is clearly worried about," Munthe said.
In the
case of Iran, however, Munthe said there does seem to be
state involvement. "Going over to Iran, a very different
thing is happening. There is a lot to suggest that there
is sort of major government-linked interference in
Iraq," he said. "Now, there has been a large number of
reports. We have had them not only from Washington,
we've had it from the president of Iraq, as well as King
Abdullah of Jordan and many, many other people, who have
said that enormous sums of money - as well as up to 1
million Iranians - have been sent over into the south to
galvanize people for the election, to pose as Iraqis, to
sign up so they can vote and get their people in."
Amid this week's flurry of charges from
Washington and Baghdad, some analysts say it is up to
Washington to present firm evidence to back its
accusations against Syria and Iran before they will be
widely accepted in the region.
Rime Allaf is a
regional expert with the Royal Institute for
International Affairs in London. She said that without
concrete evidence, the accusations will be seen as an
effort to deflect blame for Iraq's security problems
from US and Iraqi officials to outside forces.
She notes tensions over security problems are
particularly high in the run-up to the election of
Iraq's National Assembly on January 30. "There's been a
concerted effort to get the Syrians and the Iranians in
the same boat as trying to destabilize the country or to
get things their own way," Allaf said. "I think as time
progresses, as we get closer to January 30, this will
probably increase, even though the Iraqi government is
trying to get some of the attention away from the
[difficulties around the] elections by starting the
trials of some of Saddam's men next week."
The
government of Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi
has vowed to hold the elections on schedule, despite
uncertainties over how security will be assured in parts
of Sunni central Iraq.
While US and Iraqi
charges over Syria and Iran have flared over the past
year, Baghdad and its neighbors have made some efforts
to ease tensions.
Damascus agreed with Baghdad
in September to increase cooperation on patrolling the
border to prevent movement of money and fighters across
it. The agreement won praise from the Bush
administration, even as it considers how to apply
sanctions against Syria mandated by the US Congress over
charges that Damascus supports Mideast terrorist groups.
Iran and Iraq agreed at a meeting in Tehran
earlier this month that they need to "enhance regional
cooperation", but they did not specify steps to do so.
The meeting, which included officials from six other
regional states, saw several exchanges of blame between
Iran and the US-backed Iraqi interim government over who
is responsible for the current violence in Iraq.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave
NW, Washington DC 20036
