Editor's note:Peter Bergen is
a fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, DC;
an adjunct professor at the School of Advanced
International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; CNN's
terrorism analyst; and author of Holy War, Inc:
Inside the Secret World of Bin Laden (Free Press,
2001). Holy War, Inc, which the Washington Post
reviewed as "the only book you need to read about Osama
bin Laden", was a New York Times best-seller and has been
translated into 18 languages.
Dear Mr
Bergen,
We have never run into each other in any
of the innumerable seminars on jihadi terrorism in
general and al-Qaeda in particular that I keep
attending, but you are one of the few al-Qaeda watchers
whose comments I carefully look for and read with
attention and respect. Your comments are often tinged
with a healthy dose of skepticism that, I have always
felt, is an important component of good analysis.
Before going to bed on Thursday night, I learned
from TV channels about the latest audio-tape,
purportedly of Osama bin Laden, which was posted on the
Internet by his followers on December 16, in which he
has praised the terrorists responsible for the attack on
the US Consulate in Jeddah on December 6, and called for
the overthrow of the Saudi ruling family, the
intensification of the jihad in Iraq and the use of the
oil weapon against the West.
I woke up on Friday
morning to write my comments on bin Laden's speech.
Before starting to type, I browsed the Internet to see
what others had said on the subject. I was amazed to
find that you have already said what I intended to
write. Great minds think alike.
Instead of
typing my views, let me quote you for the benefit of the
readers, since I totally agree with what you have said.
The CNN has reported as follows on your views:
Terrorism expert Peter Bergen said the
10-day period between the Jeddah attack and the
release of the tape is the fastest turnaround that he
can recall between a news event and a communication
from bin Laden. "It indicates to me a certain degree
of security. After all, the chain of custody of these
tapes is the one way to find bin Laden. He obviously
feels secure enough that he can release a number of
these tapes. The last message from the al-Qaeda leader
came in a videotape appearing October 29 on the
Arab-language television network al-Jazeera. His top
deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, spoke in an audio-tape that
aired November 29 on al-Jazeera." Bergen said by his
count bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have released 29
messages since the September 11, 2001, attacks on the
United States. "It's extraordinary that the chain of
custody of these tapes has not been traced back,"
Bergen said. "After all, they're releasing these tapes
very frequently, on average once every six weeks, yet
it seems that American intelligence agencies or other
intelligence agencies are not capable of tracing back
the source of these tapes."
Your observations and analysis are impeccable. I may add
one observation of my own. Bin Laden, who generally has
his tapes - video or audio - released through
al-Jazeera, has chosen this time not to do so. At least,
not yet. Instead, it has been disseminated first through
the Internet. Why? Was the TV channel reluctant to carry
it this time due to US pressure? Or was it because he
thought the al-Jazeera office in Islamabad is under
effective surveillance and that it would be risky to
send it there?
As you have pointed out, bin
Laden and al-Zawahiri have disseminated 29 taped
messages since September 11. As I have been pointing out
repeatedly in my articles, almost all these messages
were reportedly handed over by unidentified persons to
the al-Jazeera correspondent in Islamabad or elsewhere
in Pakistan.
How come there has not been a
single instance of interception of any of these couriers
from al-Qaeda by the Pakistani security agencies, which
do not fail to spot and question a single Pakistani who
visits the Indian Embassy in Islamabad? They have a more
effective surveillance on the Indian Embassy and its
staff than on bin Laden and his operatives and on the
al-Jazeera office, wherever it is located.
Who
are the couriers used by al-Qaeda for carrying the tapes
of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri to al-Jazeera
correspondents without being intercepted by the police
or detected by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation,
which has its own surveillance on al-Jazeera ? What is
so special about them that they are able to evade
detection so successfully?
Yes, Mr Bergen. They
are not ordinary couriers. They are special. Very
special. They are the serving and retired officers of
the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI, who have been
helping bin Laden and al-Zawahiri to evade capture and
to remain in touch with their followers). Naturally,
nobody in Pakistan would dare to stop and search them.
You may want to ask: "How do you know this?" It
is like asking: "How do you know what I have under my
underwear?"
It is so obvious. It is such common
knowledge in the police circles of Pakistan. You talk to
the police officers of Sindh and Balochistan. They will
tell you how a group of serving and retired officers of
the ISI has been keeping bin Laden and al-Zawahiri alive
and kicking and helping them to remain in touch with
their followers.
During his recent visit to
the US, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf
was reported to have said in an interview that the trail
for bin Laden has grown cold. It has not. It is
there everywhere - from his hideout wherever it is to the
offices of the ISI, al-Jazeera and the army headquarters
in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and to the residences of
retired ISI officers.
A trail is useful only if
you notice it and act on it. If you consciously close
your eyes to it, even the best trail will be of no
avail. Keep asking the right questions. You will find
the truth, unless, in the meantime, another catastrophe
overtakes the US. God forbid.
B Raman
is additional secretary (retired), cabinet secretariat,
government of India, New Delhi, and, presently,
director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and
distinguished fellow and convener, Observer Research
Foundation, Chennai Chapter. Email:corde@vsnl.com
