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Israel in the Iran fray,
too
By Ehsan Ahrari
Reporter Seymour Hersh's allegations that
the United States may be penetrating Iranian
territory in search of credible evidence of its
nuclear activities, or even with a view to
bringing about regime change, have somewhat
overshadowed Israeli perspectives.
In
general, no discussion of Iran's alleged nuclear
weapons ambitions can be held without reference to
what the government of Israel thinks. An important
aspect of Tel Aviv's approach is to keep on
ringing alarm bells, so that the attention of the
international community remains focused on the
issue. At the same time, it has made a point of
remaining engaged with American officials. The
fact that nuclear non-proliferation is one of the
top national security issues of the Bush
administration makes Israel's job on the latter
point considerably easy.
Actually, Israel
has nothing to worry about the possibility of this
issue fading into oblivion, for two major reasons.
First, speculation in and around Washington has
never stopped circulating that the Bush
administration has some sort of a plan about
destabilizing, or even bringing about regime
change, in Iran. What hasn't been clear, however,
is whether it would follow the Afghan model of a
military campaign, or the Iraqi version of it.
Considering the fact that the US military is
innovative and prolific about coming up with
sui generis campaigns for different
military operations, chances are that if
Washington indeed has plans for regime change in
Iran, it might not follow either of the two
preceding operations. That is why the recently
published essay of Hersh about a potential US
military action against Iran is read with
considerable interest and attention worldwide.
The second reason why the world's
attention remains focused on the issue is the
possibility that Israel, at some point, will take
it on itself to carry out preemptive operations
against Iran, from air and sea. Hersh mentions
this possibility in his recent essay. He writes,
"Israel has acquired three submarines capable of
launching cruise missiles and has equipped some of
its aircraft with additional fuel tanks, putting
Israel's F-161 fighters within the range of most
Iranian [nuclear and missile] targets."
It
is interesting to examine Israel's own assessment
of the Iranian nuclear issue. In a recent paper
entitled "Europe and Iran's Nuclear Future",
issued by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies,
an institution generally regarded as reflecting
the official thinking of that country, it is clear
that Israel remains dissatisfied with the basic
approach of the EU-3 countries (Germany, France
and the United Kingdom) toward Iran on the nuclear
issue. It states:
Iran's nuclear ambitions are clearly
reflected in the extent of its program, its past
record of concealment, its ongoing effort to
hinder inspection, and its determination to
continue with uranium enrichment-related
activities. By contrast, the EU-3 have shown no
similar determination. The European stance has
been and remains to reach a "suspension" (which
is, by definition, a temporary measure) of
Iran's enrichment program, with some minor
additions. The Europeans have never unreservedly
condemned Iran's military nuclear ambitions,
probably out of political considerations, ie,
the desire to be seen by Iran as an "honest
broker", rather than from any real confidence in
Iran's innocence. But by failing to do so, they
expose themselves to suspicions of acting from
ulterior motives. It should not,
therefore, surprise anyone that the US also
remains unhappy with the EU-3 approach, which is
described in Washington as characterized by too
much carrot and not enough stick.
The most
important aspect of Israel's perspectives on
Iran's potential development of nuclear weapons is
what could be called its alleged "cascading
effect". The same paper states that if Iran
"continues with its weapons development program
and acquires or even comes close to acquiring a
military nuclear capability, Saudi Arabia will
probably feel compelled to seek a nuclear
'umbrella' from Pakistan, through an existing or
new cooperation agreement. Others in the region,
particularly Egypt and Turkey, will be similarly
driven to obtain such a capability." It goes on to
claim that even Iraq would be impelled "in the
more distant future, to develop a WMD [weapons of
mass destruction] capability."
Thus, the
essential aspect of Israel's position on the
subject is that no Middle Eastern country, save
itself, has the right to possess nuclear weapons.
Two realities should be kept in mind regarding
Israel's position. First, the US government has
absolutely no problem with Israel having a nuclear
monopoly in the Middle East. Second, the Israeli
position regarding nuclear non-proliferation is a
virtual carbon copy of the long-standing US
position on the subject. Washington originally did
not want the Soviet Union to develop nuclear
weapons. In fact, the capabilities of the former
communist superpower to do so radically changed
the rules of the game underlying the Cold War.
During that period, US foreign policy, along with
that of the Soviet Union, was constantly driven by
the notion of nuclear deterrence. It was only
after the implosion of the Soviet Union that US
foreign policy was liberated from any thought
regarding how Moscow would respond or react to its
own maneuvers worldwide.
In the same
manner, Israel is afraid that if a Middle Eastern
country becomes a nuclear power, it could forever
lose its freedom of action in the Middle East. The
specifics of such a scenario are not important
because Israel will do everything in its power,
including preemptive attacks, to make sure that no
Middle Eastern country ever develops nuclear
weapons. The US, regardless of who is sitting in
the White House, has no problem with such a frame
of mind. Such a reality makes it difficult for
Iran to realistically think about becoming a
nuclear power any time soon.
Ehsan
Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia,
US-based independent strategic analyst.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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