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The Kirkuk
tinderbox
By K Gajendra Singh
There is much media focus on the
inauguration of US President George W Bush for his
second term, as well as the Iraqi elections
scheduled for January 30. But the ethnically
divided city of Kirkuk in north Iraq remains a
dangerous tinderbox. Even the losing US
presidential candidate, Senator John Kerry, who
voted against the nomination of Condoleezza Rice
as the next secretary of state in the Senate's
Foreign Affairs Committee, felt compelled to warn
of possible turmoil in Kirkuk, which has been a
bone of contention between Kurds, Arabs and
Turkmens - Turkey's ethnic cousins, with Ankara
taking up their cause regularly.
Kurdish influx into Kirkuk
Namik
Tan, the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman, told
a press conference on January 19 that the Iraqis,
the United Nations and the entire international
community should take measures against "fait
accomplis that will not contribute to lasting
peace in Iraq ... and have negative impacts on the
stability of the region". "No one in the 21st
century can subject others' land to illegal
fait-accomplis," Tan said, without
explicitly naming the Kurds. "It is unacceptable
for groups which object to the wrong policies and
practices of the past to commit the same mistakes
themselves now, under the cover of freedom,
justice and democracy," he added.
Tan said
that many people in Kirkuk were now concerned that
"some elements are drifting toward a mistake which
may have grave consequences. They say that
hundreds of thousands of settlers are being
shifted to Kirkuk, and the majority of them have
neither personal nor family bonds with Kirkuk. The
methods and mechanisms of return have been clearly
determined. They should be implemented in a
legitimate way," Tan concluded.
Last week,
the Kurds reached a deal with the Iraqi government
that will allow nearly 100,000 Kurds, said to have
been expelled from Kirkuk by Saddam Hussein's
regime, to vote in the January 30 elections. This
agreement would change the demographic balance and
risks the eruption of tensions in the ethnically
divided and volatile city between Kurds and Arabs,
and a large number of Turkmens. Ankara is strongly
opposed to Kurdish control of Kirkuk, which many
Kurds would like to make the capital of an
independent Kurdish state.
Located in
northern Mosul province about 250 kilometers north
of Baghdad near the foot of the Zagros mountains,
underneath Kirkuk lie more than 10 billion barrels
of proven oil reserves. It has key oil sites,
although pipelines connecting it to Ceyhan
terminal in Turkey have been repeatedly damaged.
Often compared to Jerusalem because of conflicting
claims, Kurds claim Kirkuk as a symbol of Kurdish
heritage. Many Kurdish leaders, such as Jalal
Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) among them, claim that Kirkuk is
historically Kurdish.
There have been
repeated clashes between Turkmens and Kurds over
the past 50 years. In 1959, there were bloody
riots between poorer and communist led Kurds and
the Turkmens. The latter belonged to the ruling
elite in the Ottoman era and are still prosperous.
In 1996, during a brief rapprochement with the
Baghdad regime, the Iraqi military executed 17
Turkmen activists and officials in the nearby city
of Irbil. Iraqi Turkmens blame this event on the
Kurds. There were ethnic flare-ups between 1998
and 2000 as well.
According to UN
officials and a Human Rights Watch report, it is
claimed that between 120,000 and 200,000 Kurds, as
well as Turkmens and Assyrians, were expelled from
the city after 1991, tens of thousands were
squeezed out earlier. Iraqi Kurds claim that
Kirkuk was overwhelmingly Kurdish in the 1950s
before the "Arabization" of the city.
In
April 2003 it was estimated that the Kirkuk
population was composed of 250,000 each of
Turkmens, Arabs and Kurds. Many of the Arabs
resettled there are Shi'ites from the south. The
Turkmens are also generally Shi'ites, like their
ethnic kin, the Alevis in Turkey, but many have
given up Turkmen traditions in favor of the urban,
clerical religion common among the Arabs of the
south. Kirkuk is therefore a stronghold of Muqtada
al-Sadr. The influential Shi'ite political party,
the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SCIRI), also has good support. Kurds are mostly
Sunnis, and were the dominant population in Kirkuk
up to the 1960s and 1970s, when many were forced
to move further north.
According to some
reports, over 70,000 Kurds have entered Kirkuk in
the past two years, and about 50,000 Arabs
returned to the south. It can be said that till
recently there were about 320,000 Kurds and
200,000 Arabs in the city. The number of Turkmen
has also been augmented. During the Ottoman rule,
the Turkmen dominated the city, and so it was
until the discovery of oil.
According to
the US-crafted interim constitution of Iraq,
Kirkuk's final status will be settled only after
Iraq's final constitution is ratified at the end
of 2005, followed by a census.
Turkey's
Kurdish problem
Turkey has serious problems
with its own Kurds, who form 20% of the
population. A rebellion since 1984 against the
Turkish state led by Abdullah Ocalan of the
Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has cost
over 35,000 lives, including those of 5,000
soldiers. To control and neutralize the rebellion,
thousands of Kurdish villages have been bombed,
destroyed, abandoned or relocated; millions of
Kurds have been moved to shanty towns in the south
and east or migrated westwards. The economy of the
region was shattered. With a third of the Turkish
army tied up in the southeast, the cost of
countering the insurgency at its height amounted
to between US$6 billion to $8 billion a year.
The rebellion died down after the arrest
and trial of Ocalan in 1999, but it has not been
fully eradicated. After a court in Turkey in 2002
commuted to life imprisonment the death sentence
passed on Ocalan, and parliament granted rights
for the use of the Kurdish language and the
release from jail of pro-PKK Kurdish members of
parliament, some of the root causes of the Kurdish
rebellion were removed. The European Union
(EU)-Turkey accord of December 17 last year
guarantees political and cultural freedoms for
Kurds .
But the PKK - now also called
Konga-Gel - shifted almost 4,000 of its cadres to
northern Iraq and refused to lay down arms. In
1999, the PKK declared a unilateral ceasefire, but
it was not renewed in June last year. There have
been increasing skirmishes and battles between
Kurdish insurgents and Turkish security forces
inside Turkey. Turkey remains frustrated over US
reluctance to employ military means against the
PKK fighters - in spite of promises to do so. The
US's priority to disarm PKK cadres was never very
high. In fact, the US wants to reward Iraqi Kurds,
who have remained peaceful and loyal, unlike the
rest of the country.
Iraqi Kurds have been
ambivalent toward the PKK, helping them at times,
more so now. Ankara has entered north Iraq from
time to time - despite protests - to attack PKK
bases and its cadres. Ankara has also said that it
would regard an independent Kurdish entity as a
causes belli. It determinedly opposes the
Kurds seizing the oil centers around Kirkuk, which
would give them financial autonomy, which would
also constitute a reason for entry into north
Iraq. The Turks vehemently oppose any change in
the ethnic composition of the city of Kirkuk .
The Turks manifest a pervasive distrust of
autonomy or models of a federal state for Iraqi
Kurds: it would encourage the aspirations of their
own Kurds. It also revives memories of Western
conspiracies against Turkey and the unratified
1920 Treaty of Sevres forced on the Ottoman Sultan
by the World War I victors which had promised
independence to the Armenians and autonomy to
Turkey's Kurds. So Mustafa Kemal Ataturk opted for
the unitary state of Turkey and Kurdish rebellions
in Turkey were ruthlessly suppressed.
The
1980s war between Iraq and resurgent Shi'ites in
Iran helped the PKK to establish itself in the
lawless north Kurdish Iraq territory. The PKK also
helped itself with arms freely available in the
region during the eight-year war. The 1990-91 Gulf
crisis and war also proved to be a watershed in
the violent explosion of the Kurdish rebellion in
Turkey. A nebulous and ambiguous situation emerged
in north Iraq when, at the end of the war, US
president Bush Sr encouraged the Kurds (and the
hapless Shi'ites in the south) to revolt against
Saddam's Sunni Arab regime. Turkey was dead
against it, as a Kurdish state in the north would
give ideas to its own Kurds. But Iraqi Kurds have
enjoyed autonomy under US protection since 1991.
Warning by Turkish armed forces
The Turkish armed forces have repeatedly
warned Iraqi Kurds against attempts to change
Kirkuk's demography. "Some ethnic groups are
pursuing efforts to change the demographic
structure of Kirkuk while steps are being taken to
bring stability to Iraq," the deputy head of the
General Staff, General Ilker Basbug, told a
monthly media briefing in Ankara in July , 2004
"We expect the interim government of Iraq
to prevent that," he added. The general warned
that failure to find a "just and lasting solution"
to the status of the disputed city would threaten
Iraq's territorial and political integrity. "Such
a development would be seen as a serious security
concern for Turkey," Basbug said.
Basbug
continued, "It is true that this issue is an
internal affair of Iraq, but this region carries
the greatest risk regarding the future of Iraq. We
are concerned that wrong steps may plunge Iraq
into internal strife ... and therefore it is out
of the question for us to stay outside this issue.
We want the preservation of Iraq's territorial
integrity and political unity and we want
[stability] established in Iraq as soon as
possible," he added.
Basbug warned that
confrontation between different ethnic groups
would be inevitable if "it [oil] is owned entirely
by a certain group ... this will plunge into
confrontation groups in the region whose
expectations are not met," he said. He claimed
that Turkey's concerns were shared "at the highest
level by the United States".
Military
contingency plans for north Iraq
In
October/November, 2004 it was widely reported that
the Turkish military had begun drafting
contingency plans for a possible invasion of
northern Iraq in early 2005, with at least 20,000
troops. Officials said that the Turkish General
Staff had urged approval from the government of
Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and to sound out the
US. "The current phase is to show the United
States that we're serious," a Turkish government
source said. "After the Iraqi elections in
January, the Turkish military will be ready to
move." It would be a major offensive in northern
Iraq to prevent Kurdish militias from controlling
the area. The Turks were very concerned by the
reported Kurdish effort to squeeze out ethnic
Turks from Kirkuk.
In mid-October, Erdogan
and his cabinet reviewed first the plan with Chief
of Staff General Hilmi Ozkok and Defense Minister
Vecdi Gonul, with a planned rapid deployment of up
to 40,000 troops in northern Iraq, operational
within 18 hours of approval. A scaled-down version
of the military plan was then discussed in the
National Security Council on October 27. The first
goal of the ground operation, supported by
fighter-jets and attack helicopters, would be to
destroy PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in
northern Iraq.
The General Staff warned
the government that it could no longer ignore the
Kurdish threat, more so as Kurds from Iran and
Syria had reportedly supported the PKK, and some
even participated in PKK attacks in southeastern
Turkey. Turkish officials said that the Peshmerga
(paramilitary) had dug tunnels and established
outposts outside Dahouk, near the Turkish border.
In spite of Turkish complaints and US assurances
to begin with, the US has refused to eliminate PKK
strongholds. Washington also did not give any
implicit approval of Turkish contingency plans.
Recent US-Turkish meetings
There have been some recent meetings to
discuss the Iraq situation. Before the meetings,
when asked about US military action against the
PKK in north Iraq as part of their agenda, the US
ambassador to Ankara, Eric Edelman, told Turkey's
Zaman.com (January 7), "I don't think that is
likely to come up because our immediate
preoccupation in terms of the use of our military
assets is to provide security for the elections on
January 30. And that's the immediate goal."
Further asked about the US's position if
Kurds applied to the United Nations for
independence, he said, "We fight for Kirkuk. Our
position is clear. We believe in an Iraq that is
unified and whose territorial integrity is
complete and whole. Mr [Masoud] Barzani [leader of
the Kurdistan Democratic Party] is free to say
whatever he wants. I can't tell him what to say,
nor can anybody else. And I'm not sure telling him
would keep him from saying it anyway."
During his talks last week, US commander
in the Middle East, General John Abizaid,
reiterated to the Turkish government that he could
not spare any troops for an assault on PKK
guerrillas. While the US has declared the Marxist
PKK a terrorist organization, he added, "We also
understand - all of us understand - that our
troops have a lot of work to do there along with
the Iraqi security forces, and we agree that, over
time, we must deal with the PKK." The general's
statement, little different from the assurances
given by other US officials over the past year,
was unlikely to ease either the Turkish
government's distrust or public hostility toward
US policy in Iraq.
A State Department
delegation led by Laura Kennedy, deputy under
secretary of state, discussed PKK incursions and
activities with Turkish and Iraqi officials in
Ankara last week. A statement after the meeting
underlined that the US preferred the Iraqis and
Turks to sort out the problem bilaterally.
Turkey complains that the US has done
little in Iraq to discourage the PKK from evicting
the Turkmen population from Kirkuk, or to prevent
frequent kidnappings and killings of Turkish
workers and truck drivers in Iraq. Turkey fears
that that an overwhelming victory by Iraqi
Shi'ites in the January elections could encourage
Iraqi Kurds to solidify their semi-autonomous
status in north Iraq.
Fissures between
allies
The current differences over the
US-led war on Iraq between the Cold War allies
since the collapse of the Soviet Union are only
symptoms of the changing strategic equation in the
region and elsewhere. It was brought into sharp
focus when the Turkish parliament refused in early
March, 2003 a US request to allow its forces to
open a second front into north Iraq. Tensions
between them have erupted into warnings and
embarrassing incidents from time to time - like
the acrimonious exchange of words in July, 2003
following the arrest and imprisonment of 11
Turkish commandos in north Kurdish Iraq, for which
Washington expressed "regret".
In
September, 2004 differences erupted publicly again
over US attacks on the Turkmens in northern Iraq.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul warned that if the
US did not cease its attacks on Tal Afar, a
Turkmen city at the junction of Turkey, Iraq and
Syria, Ankara might withdraw its support to the US
in Iraq. "I told [US Secretary of State Colin
Powell] that what is being done there is harming
the civilian population, that it is wrong, and
that if it continues, Turkey's cooperation on
issues regarding Iraq will come to a total stop."
He added, "We will continue to say these things.
Of course we will not stop only at words. If
necessary, we will not hesitate to do what has to
be done."
Apart from the US's umbilically
attached strategic ally Israel, Turkey is still a
key ally in a largely hostile region. US forces
use its Incirlik military base near north Iraq.
Turkish firms are also involved heavily in the
construction and transport business in Iraq. It
provides an alternative route through friendly
northern Kurdish territory from those from Jordan
and Kuwait.
Another cause for a spat was
the US invasion of Fallujah to "pacify the city".
Turks in general and many members of parliament
denounced it. Mehmet Elkatmis, chairman of
parliament's Human Rights Investigation
Commission, in an extraordinary session, condemned
the US for committing "genocide", in Iraq, which
angered Washington. "Iraq's occupation has turned
into the genocide of Iraqi people," the Anatolia
quoted Elkatmis as saying. "There is no example of
such violence and genocide in history ... [It is]
worse than the times of Hitler and Mussolini."
Elkatmis also claimed that the US used chemical
and nuclear weapons in Iraq. A US diplomat in
Ankara, speaking on condition of anonymity,
described Elkatmis' comments as ridiculous, and
said the claim that the US had used either
chemical, nuclear or cluster bombs were false.
In a public statement, the Religious
Affairs Directorate, attached to the Prime
Minister's Office, lamented that there was an
"unstoppable humanitarian tragedy" and that the
war in Iraq had "turned into savageness". The
government, on the other hand, tried to alleviate
the resentment. A team of Foreign Ministry
bureaucrats gave a briefing to members of the
Human Rights Investigation Commission, but Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul, when asked to comment on
Elkatmis' remarks, declined to take a position. He
said that everyone was free to express their
opinion in open societies, but added that Turkey
was already doing its best in frankly explaining
to its North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally
whenever it did something wrong. "In view of the
importance we attach to Turkish-US friendship, we
are explaining to American officials everything
that we deem to be wrong in the region." He said
that "excessive use of force in Iraq" was of great
concern. The Foreign Ministry said Turkey sent
humanitarian aid, including tents, food and
medicine to Fallujah. Erdogan also conveyed to US
Vice President Dick Cheney Turkey's concerns about
Fallujah.
Conclusions
Until the
third week of December, the Turkish leadership was
totally focused on getting a date to start
negotiations for Turkey's entry into the EU. While
the deal was far from satisfactory, it was a
positive development for the ruling party, having
anchored the country to Europe. It can expect help
and support from Europe. In any case, Turkey's
policies on Iraq, Iran and the region are now
closer to the EU positions than the US's.
Erdogan recently completed a visit to
Moscow, soon after Russian President Vladimir
Putin's postponed visit to Ankara last month, the
first since 1973. While relations between Turkey
and US have cooled down primarily over Iraq,
Turkey has come closer to its historic enemy
Russia. After the exchange of visits by Erdogan
and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to Ankara,
relations between them, historically soured by
Shi'ite and Sunni rivalry and enmity, are
improving in the background of the turmoil in Iraq
and increasing chaos in the region. It is going to
get worse.
In 1999, Ankara threatened to
invade Syria if it did not expel Abdullah Ocalan
(which it did and he was captured and imprisoned
in Turkey ), but since then relations between
Syria and Turkey have warmed up, with an exchange
of visits by Syrian President Bassar Assad and
Erdogan. There is talk of Russia supplying
state-of-the-art missiles to Syria. In the past
Turkey would have denounced such a deal. At the
same time relations between Turkey and Israel,
which were very close during the Cold War and
reached an almost "allies" level after the fall of
the Berlin Wall, have deteriorated sharply, with
Erdogan accusing Israel of state terrorism and
asking it to leave Kurdish north Iraq alone.
Israel has been training Kurdish Peshmergas to
operate in the neighborhood, specially in Iran and
Syria.
K Gajendra Singh, Indian
ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to
Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to
that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan,
Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of
the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. Email Gajendrak@hotmail.com
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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