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All power to the
Shi'ites
By Valentinas Mite
PRAGUE - Shi'ite parties are expected to
dominate the January 30 general elections, while
former emigres will continue to play a leading
role in the country's political scene after the
vote. Sunnis, meanwhile, are keeping their
distance.
Many experts predict that the
candidate list of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA),
backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, will
garner the most votes. The UIA includes candidates
from the two largest Shi'ite political parties in
Iraq - the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Da'wah Party.
The UIA is headed by former exile and SCIRI leader
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.
The Iraqi List, led
by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, is also
expected to do quite well and has recently been
gathering steam.
On Thursday, in the holy
Shi'ite city of Najaf, Adnan Ajeel, a candidate on
the UIA list, said he believed the elections would
help Iraqis improve the political and security
situation in the country. "We are optimistic
because the Iraqi people - especially those in
Najaf - are united in one stand. We all think that
the elections are the only way to end the crisis
of the Iraqi people. I think that most Iraqis will
follow the religious authorities. There are no
security worries. Security is stable, and we are
prepared for the elections," Ajeel says.
Yahia Said is a researcher specializing in
Iraq and other transition nations at the London
School of Economics. He believes the vote will not
produce an outright victor. "I think there will be
no clear winner. The United Iraqi Alliance will
most likely be the largest group in parliament,
though by no means will it have the majority of
the seats," Said says.
Said says the UIA
will have to look for allies in the assembly. He
says Allawi is likely to be one such partner.
Allawi, a former exile and secular Shi'ite, heads
the Iraqi National Accord party. Said believes
Allawi's party will be supported not only by
Shi'ite but also by secular Sunnis. "I think
Allawi will perform very well. He has some
prominent Sunnis on his list. He will perform well
because of the protest vote against terrorism, and
he will be getting the mantle of the strong man
who will stop the terrorists." Said adds that
Shi'ites are split and that many secular Shi'ites
will not vote for religious parties.
Most
Iraqi Sunni parties have said they will boycott
the elections, but Julian Lindley-French, a
Geneva-based security analyst, says Sunnis will be
represented in the new government. However, he
says it will take a long process of bargaining to
get them in. He believes Sunni politicians will
probably demand a high price for their presence in
the new government since it is radical members of
their community who are leading the anti-American
resistance in the country.
Meanwhile,
French says, the most important developments in
the country are likely to happen in Kurdistan
after the elections, no matter which political
party wins a majority of seats in the National
Assembly. "It would be interesting to see what the
Kurds do, whether after these elections are over -
which will be boycotted to a significant degree by
the Sunni community - whether the Kurds are
prepared to work with the new regime," French
says.
The Kurdish-administered area of
northern Iraq has been self-governing since it
fell out of Saddam Hussein's control after the
1991 Gulf War. The area is now under a joint
administration created by the two largest Kurdish
factions - the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. There is no doubt
these parties will get the majority of votes in
the region and will press hard for defining Iraq's
federal system when a new constitution is written
later this year.
The writing of the
constitution is to be overseen by the new National
Assembly, which will also choose Iraq's next
interim government.
French believes the
stability of the entire country depends on what
the Kurdish politicians choose to do - whether
they decide to join the Shi'ites, or if they feel
their autonomy is endangered, choose to join with
Sunnis on the National Assembly. French says that
although the Shi'ites were repressed for many
years, they want to extend their control over the
entire country and seek a centralized state.
Reluctant Sunnis
At least a
dozen Sunni-led lists are registered on the
ballot, representing more mainstream - or more
appropriately, more secular - Sunni groups. One of
the best known is the Independent Democrats
Movement, led by veteran diplomat Adnan Pachachi.
Although Pachachi lobbied for an election
postponement and expressed reservations about the
vote given the security conditions in the country,
he was adamant that his party's list should
participate in the elections. Other
Sunni-dominated lists have expressed their
reservations in holding the elections in January,
including Justice Minister Malik Duhan al-Hasan's
National Democratic Coalition, and President Ghazi
Ajil al-Yawir's "Iraqis" list.
Regarding
his party's stance, Pachachi told al-Arabiyah
television in a January 24 interview: "We have
decided to participate in the elections despite
our reservations and our call for their
postponement. We believe it is in everyone's
interest to ensure the largest possible
participation in elections, so they will have the
needed legitimacy, particularly since the National
Assembly will formulate the permanent
constitution. We believe it is very important to
have a presence in the National Assembly that
represents views that could be different from
those of other members." Speaking about the
boycott of elections by some Sunni groups,
Pachachi added: "I hope that some sides and
parties that decided to boycott elections would
revise their position, if not by running in these
elections, then at least by urging their
supporters to vote."
In a January 22
interview published in Jeddah's Ukaz,
Constitutional Monarchy Movement head Sharif Ali
bin al-Husayn said: "The Sunni boycott of the
election is not voluntary. The Sunni voter wants
to participate in the election but this
participation will be weak because the government
did not provide him with security. Indeed, it sent
a message to him saying that the western regions
are not safe, when it announced that the four
governorates in the west and the north will not
participate in the election because security is
not maintained there. This reflected on the Sunni
voter, who felt that he is not safe and that, even
if he participates, his vote will not have any
weight."
Many Sunni leaders are pushing
for greater participation - from both party lists
and voters. Al-Husayn said that his party has
tried to convince the Muslim Scholars Association
to take part in the elections. "We told them: if
you boycott you will have no role to play in the
next government, and it is better for you to be
represented in the next government to be able to
convey your viewpoints," al-Husayn said. Asked why
his party did not boycott the election, al-Husayn
said: "We told the boycotters that their position
would entrench the occupation. It is regrettable
that the Iraqi resistance has no real strategy. It
should have participated in the election and
obtained a seat in the government ... But now they
have no political influence, and the influence of
the booby-trapped car is not enough."
The
Sunni-led Mosul Tribal Council headed by Sheikh
Anwar al-Luhaybi has also called on all Iraqis to
participate in the elections. In a statement on
Mosul's governorate elections, the council said
that the greatest danger facing the city is the
non-participation of some groups, al-Sharqiyah
television reported on January 25. The statement
was signed by 32 tribal sheikhs who are candidates
on the council's list.
Sunni leader
Mish'an al-Juburi from the Reconciliation and
Liberation Bloc told The Washington Post this week
that part of the problem in campaigning is that
Sunni groups are being threatened by militants.
"The people who are against the election have
warned me to withdraw. They have focused on me
because I am a Sunni with a strong voice," he told
the daily.
Al-Juburi's comments reflect
the main challenge facing Sunni leaders in this
election: eliciting support from a segment of
society feeling fearful, disconnected, and
disenfranchised, while avoiding the wrath of those
Sunni militants that will stop at nothing in their
efforts to obstruct the political process.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036 |
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