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Iran's patience running
thin
By Peter
Hirschberg
JERUSALEM - Iran is unwilling to
maintain its freeze on uranium-enrichment
activities for much longer, according to Iranian
government spokesman Abdullah Ramazanzadeh. In his
weekly news conference, Ramazanzadeh urged the
European Union to speed up its talks with Iran
over Iran's nuclear program.
Britain,
Germany, and France - acting for the EU "Big 3" -
have been seeking to persuade Iran to permanently
drop sensitive nuclear processes such as uranium
enrichment in exchange for political and economic
incentives. Iran has agreed to suspend nuclear
enrichment "for a time" while the talks continue,
but says it will resume enrichment if the talks do
not succeed.
The United States charges
that Iran is developing nuclear-weapons
capability. Iran insists that its nuclear program
is for peaceful purposes only.
But it
could yet be a target. When Israel dispatched F-16
bombers almost 24 years ago to destroy Saddam
Hussein's nuclear reactor in Osirak, the pilots
knew they only had to hit a single target. Were
Israeli or US planes to be sent today to
neutralize Iran's nuclear program, the mission
would be far more complicated: with Iranian
facilities spread out, the pilots would have to
strike targets across the country, and none of
them a large, clearly identifiable reactor.
Speaking last week, though, United States
Vice President Dick Cheney was not ready to rule
out military action - by Israel. If Jerusalem
became convinced, he said, that "the Iranians had
significant nuclear capability, given the fact
that Iran has a stated policy that their objective
is the destruction of Israel, the Israelis might
well decide to act first, and let the rest of the
world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess
afterwards".
For its part, Iran's top
national security official Hassan Rowhani said the
armed forces were prepared for any military attack
by the US. "Our plans are ready, and although an
attack is very unlikely the plans have been
approved by the Supreme National Security Council
and given to the military forces," Rowhani,
secretary of Iran's top national security body,
was quoted as saying in the Iranian media. "We
will not react to an attack with diplomacy. We are
ready to cut off the aggressor's hand," added
Rowhani.
Israeli leaders, extremely
concerned by the prospect of a nuclear Iran, have
been less brazen than the US. If Israel acted
alone, "we will remain alone", Vice Prime Minister
Shimon Peres said. "Everyone knows our potential
but we also have to know our limits. As long as
there is a possibility that the world will
organize to fight against Iran's nuclear option,
let the world organize."
With the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
discussing Iran's nuclear activities, the rhetoric
has become increasingly shrill. Israeli leaders
have long warned of what they see as the danger of
Iran's nuclear program to the entire region, and
are hoping the Americans will ultimately prevent
Tehran from getting the bomb.
IAEA chief
Mohammed ElBaradei told the Washington Post Sunday
that he could not see "how a military solution can
resolve the Iran issue. In my view, with Iran
having almost self-sufficiency in the technology,
the Iranians will go underground ... you might
delay them, but they will rebuild it with the
objective of having a weapon."
Israeli
intelligence officials estimate that Iran could be
capable of producing enriched uranium within six
months and have nuclear weapons within two years.
Earlier this month, head of Israeli military
intelligence Major General Aharon Ze'evi said that
while Iran was not currently capable of enriching
uranium to build a nuclear bomb, "it is only half
a year away from achieving such independent
capability - if it is not stopped by the West."
Israeli officials have also accused Tehran
of trying to dupe the international community.
They believe Iran will try and stave off the
threat of sanctions while pushing ahead secretly
with its efforts to attain nuclear weapons
capability.
ElBaradei admitted Iran had
"cheated" in the past about its nuclear program,
but said it was now "cooperating". The IAEA
determined in November that Iran was complying
with an agreement to cease uranium enrichment. For
its part, Iran insists that its program has a
purely civilian goal - the production of
electricity.
The EU is urging Tehran to
completely ditch its nuclear fuel program to prove
it is not seeking to produce atomic weapons. It is
holding out a trade accord as an incentive. But
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who along
with Britain and France is trying to engage Iran
on the nuclear issue, said last week at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that
"diplomatic and political" means were required to
persuade Tehran, not force.
As with Iraq,
the US has taken a far more hardline stance.
Earlier this month, President George W Bush hinted
at possible military action against Iran. He said
he hoped the issue could be resolved
diplomatically, but that he would "never take any
option off the table".
In Jerusalem,
officials interpreted Cheney's warning about a
possible Israeli military strike as a message to
the Europeans to get tough on Iran. A senior
Israeli official was quoted as saying that
Cheney's remarks were "intended to tell the
Europeans: 'If you don't take a greater role in a
policy of implementing sanctions and moving
vigorously to stop Iran's nuclear program, then we
are not responsible for what Israel will do'."
Ze'evi said he has been trying to explain
the magnitude of the Iranian nuclear threat to
European countries. "The Iranians can reach
Portugal with nuclear weapons," he said. "This
doesn't worry the Europeans. They tell me that
during the Soviet regime as well they were under a
nuclear threat, and I try to explain to them that
Iran is a different story."
Some observers
in Israel argue that a nuclear Iran would be less
of a threat to Israel than to other countries in
the region. They point to reports that Israel
possesses a submarine-based second-strike
capability.
Arab countries blame Israel
for spurring nuclear aspirations in the Middle
East. The Jewish state is believed to be the only
Middle East country with nuclear arms, although it
neither denies nor confirms its possession of such
weapons - a policy that has been dubbed "nuclear
ambiguity". Israel has between 100 and 200 nuclear
warheads, according to foreign reports.
Israel's atomic secrets were exposed for
the first time almost 20 years ago by Mordechai
Vanunu, a technician at the nuclear plant in
Dimona in the south of the country. Vanunu, who
was released from jail last year after serving an
18-year term for treason, handed information in
1986 to the Sunday Times in London about Israel's
nuclear program. He was later kidnapped by Israeli
agents in Rome and smuggled to Israel to stand
trial.
Dr Shmuel Bar, a senior research
fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya
near Tel Aviv says the chances of Israeli military
action are low. "If we act unilaterally, we will
be blamed, the Iranians will react, and we will
not get public American backing," he told IPS.
Israel, he added, must not turn the Iranian
nuclear issue into an Israeli problem. "It is
first and foremost an American problem."
The US cannot accept a nuclear Iran which
would be able to "dictate its positions in the
Gulf and in Iraq", says Bar. He foresees
disagreement between Europe and the US, leading
ultimately to unilateral American action. "There
could be an oil embargo on Iran with the American
Sixth Fleet blocking passage [of Iranian vessels]
in the Gulf."
A growing number of experts
now argue that a military option no longer exists
because Iran has spread its nuclear facilities
across the country and has not concentrated them
in one place, as was the case in Iraq. There have
also been reports of Tehran setting up dummy
nuclear facilities.
A single air strike,
therefore, would be insufficient to knock out
Iran's program. What is more, Israel is aware that
Tehran would likely respond, possibly with
long-range missiles. This might explain why some
in the US today talk of regime change in Iran,
rather than of military action. It is also
questionable whether Bush, mired in Iraq, has the
appetite for another major military escapade.
But Shmuel Bar does not rule out the
possibility of US military action. "Bush is an
ideological president and he isn't going to be
running for a third term," he says.
(Inter
Press Service) |
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