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Boiling Turkey awaits Rice in
Ankara
By K Gajendra Singh
In her scheduled whirlwind tour from February
3-10, former US national security adviser
and now Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will
land in Ankara halfway through her safari of eight
European nations: the United Kingdom, Germany,
Poland, Turkey, Italy, France, Belgium and
Luxembourg, as well as Israel and Palestine. She
is due in Ankara on Saturday after talks in Berlin
and Warsaw, and after meetings in Ankara she flies
to Tel Aviv.
Moscow said on Tuesday that
Rice would meet with Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov in Ankara. US officials did not confirm
the talks, but the Russian Foreign Ministry said
it would prepare for US President George W Bush's
talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin
in Bratislava on February 24.
Rice will advance Bush's common agenda, in
cooperation with European friends and allies, according
to US Department of State spokesman Richard
Boucher, who said on Monday that this included fighting
terrorism, building democracy, fighting diseases
such as AIDS, and cooperation around the world.
Apart from looking at new opportunities
(after the election in Palestine of Abu Mazen
following the death of Yasser Arafat) between the
Israelis and Palestinians, she will also discuss
and promote initiatives on modernization, reform
and democracy in the Middle East, as embodied in
the Forum for the Future, and other Group of Eight,
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and
European outreach programs.
The third
focus, Boucher said, was to support and work with
European institutions. The US had always been a
supporter of a united Europe, and for an active
European role with the US in world affairs, he
said. Rice's learning/speaking safari will,
presumably, also prepare the ground for Bush's
visit to Europe scheduled for February 22-25.
This could be a vital tour that will
affect US policies, with worldwide implications.
Since the neo-conservative-led Bush administration
started beating the war drums against Iraq more
than two years ago, major policy differences have
emerged between the US and Europe. Since then,
they have mostly talked at each other. This
is an opportunity for the US to listen.
Rice's understanding of history,
apart from that of a decaying and dead Soviet Union,
and diplomatic skills will be tested in the
European capitals, where she will have to assess the
mood in the wake of four more years of Bush in
the White House, and whether the so-called "successful
polls in Iraq" provide a rationale for policy
change, especially in France and Germany.
European officials might like to put the
tensions of the past four years behind them, but
there are potential areas of conflict, notably
over how to handle Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Europe still recalls Vice President Dick Cheney's
recent statement that Israel might feel compelled
to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. A number of
key European allies have begun withdrawing troops
from Iraq, though during Cheney's visit to Poland
last week the Poles agreed to withdraw only 700
troops and defer a decision on the remaining
1,700. While the US has chosen not to make an
issue of the departures, there is now strong
internal pressure on European allies for troop
withdrawal from the killing fields of Iraq now
that the first phase of the elections is over. US officials
are also fuming that the European Union could soon
lift its arms embargo imposed on China after the
1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, never mind the
code of conduct on exports.
"Ms Rice's
get-acquainted tour comes at a time when relations
with some of America's oldest and most reliable
allies - angered by the US invasion of Iraq - are
'scraping the bottom'," said Senator Joseph Biden.
But John Hulsman, an expert on Europe at the
conservative Heritage Foundation, said the trip
"is as close to stretching out a hand as the
Europeans can hope to get" from the Bush
administration.
To guard against any
euphoria being raided by the visit, Rice told the
media not to expect any major shift on Iraq from
the Europeans. But she said there is a "steady
evolution of help to the Iraqis", noting that the
Europeans have agreed to forgive much of Iraq's debt
and Germany has trained Iraqi policemen. But there
is a new tension in relations with Russia.
Rice warned Russia that it must accelerate
its democratic reforms to deepen its
relationship with the US truly. She said Washington
had to balance cooperation with Moscow on several
fronts with the Kremlin's "uneven" moves toward
democracy. The US is far from happy at the
reported sale of sophisticated Russian missiles to
Syria.
Not much Turkish delight
Ankara will be keen to learn how the US will
handle the Iraq mess in all its aspects, and its
allies in the region, and its policies regarding
Iran and Syria. Or will it be business as usual?
For Turkey, US policy on now Kurdish "captured"
Kirkuk and its own Kurdish rebels now nestled in
north Iraq is critical. For any action in the
region, Turkey's support is vital for US plans,
including an honorable exit from the Iraqi
quagmire.
Turkey's cup of anger at
US policies in the region has been boiling for
some time. A blunt man, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan criticized US policy for not
stopping Kurdish attempts to dominate the
ethnically divided strategic city of Kirkuk. Erdogan
said Bush had assured him that he would look into
the issue of massive Kurdish migration to Kirkuk,
but to date that had not been done.
The
Turkish Daily News in Ankara wrote, "Tension over
elections in the disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk
appears to be presenting a new test for the
strained ties with the United States." To soothe
Turkish anger, Douglas J Feith, the
neo-conservative US under secretary of defense for
policy, said in Ankara that Iraq's territorial
integrity was still a priority for the US. "It is
crucial that Iraq's territorial integrity is
preserved," he said after talks with Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul.
In a statement
after the Iraqi poll, the Turkish Foreign Ministry
announced that the results, especially those
pertaining to Kirkuk, would be assessed when
announced officially. Turkey had warned the United
Nations and the US of the destabilizing effects of
the tensions in Kirkuk, which could spark a civil
war in Iraq should Kurds demand autonomy.
While speaking in parliament, Erdogan
indirectly accused the US a few days ago of
ignoring "certain developments [in Iraq] which our
nation has deeply regretted". "Forces who say they
came to the region to bring democracy have
preferred to remain indifferent to anti-democratic
ambitions," he said. His remarks are part of a
rising crescendo of warnings and complaints by
Ankara at what it sees as attempts by Iraqi Kurds
to take control of the ethnically volatile city of
Kirkuk at the expense of local Arabs and Turkey's
ethnic cousins, the Turkmens.
"Let
me say once
again clearly that any step taken without consideration
for Turkey's rights will yield no result
other than fanning the fire in the region," Erdogan
concluded. Gul warned on Monday that Turkey
could take action if ethnic unrest erupted in
Kirkuk.
In response, Feith said that Iraq's
unity remained a "top priority" because "preserving
Iraq's territorial integrity is a key to
the stability and peace of the region. We've had
some differences over Iraq and many differences
have caused problems ... but problems are
not that unusual in an alliance of free countries.
We have a useful, strong, deeply rooted
alliance with Turkey and it will continue. We've
got enough momentum, we've got enough good will,
we've got enough common interest to be able to
keep the alliance healthy despite the problems.
But it does require people having understanding of
the whole picture and not losing perspective."
Feith confirmed that the US was seeking
continued use of the Incirlik military base in the
southern Turkish province of Adana as a logistical
cargo hub for US forces operating in the region.
"We are interested in talking with Turkey about
that and see if there is a sensible arrangement
that we can both agree to," he said. The base was
used by US and British warplanes to patrol a
no-fly zone over northern Iraq prior to the
invasion.
The Kirkuk dispute and other
problems of Turkey's concern should be "resolved
in a way that strengthens the integrity of Iraq",
Feith told a news conference on Tuesday at the end
of a two-day visit. The Kirkuk dispute is also
expected to be at the top of the agenda during
talks with Rice.
Feith's conciliatory tone
was quite a change from that of another
neo-conservative, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul
Wolfowitz, who lectured and castigated the Turks
soon after the "quick victory" of the US war
machine over Iraq in 2003. But he was given back
as good by angry Turks.
Decline in
US-Turkish relations
Differences in
strategic interests and perceptions between NATO
allies the US and Turkey emerged soon after the
Soviet Union unraveled in the early 1990s.
Turkey's historical enemy was confined within the
new borders of the Russian federation, with not
even a direct land border between them. The US
also did not need that desperately an aircraft
carrier (Turkey) south of the former USSR. In
fact, Turkey used its friend Israel to act as a
broker with the US.
But September 11
changed everything, with the chasm between the US
and the Islamic world widening, beginning with the
attack on Afghanistan in late 2001. An upsurge of
religion all over the world helped a marginal
religious party in Turkey to rise. Its younger
leadership under Erdogan moderated its policies to
emerge as the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
It stunned everyone by gaining two-thirds of the
seats in the Turkish parliament in November 2002
elections.
The differences between
Ankara and Washington became acute when the US
finally invaded Iraq, despite international opposition,
in March 2003. These differences were first
brought into sharp focus when earlier the
Turkish parliament refused a US request to allow
its forces to open a second front into north Iraq
from Turkish territory. Tensions between them
have since led to warnings and embarrassing
incidents, such as the acrimonious exchange of words in July
2003 after the arrest and imprisonment of 11
Turkish commandos in north Kurdish Iraq, for which
Washington expressed "regret".
In
September 2004, differences erupted publicly again
over US attacks on the Turkmens in northern Iraq.
Gul warned that if the US did not cease its
attacks on Tal Afar, a Turkmen city at the
junction of Turkey, Iraq and Syria, Ankara might
withdraw its support to the US in Iraq.
However unsatisfactory its accord with the
EU, Turkey is drifting away from the US. Soon
US-EU relations will affect US-Turkish relations
too. Turkey opens talks in October on EU
membership. "Turkish-EU relations are at an
all-time best," said Omer Taspinar, director of
the Turkey Program at the Brookings Institute,
"while trans-Atlantic relations are going through
one of their worst patches." Mark Parris, a former
US ambassador to Turkey, said that as EU accession
talks progress, a shift away from the US might
widen. "Turkey's imagination, its talent, is
inevitably going to be drawn toward Europe,"
Parris lamented.
After the Iraq war, 83%
of Turks viewed the US unfavorably, up from 55% in
2002. A June 2003 survey by the Pew Research
Center found that 71% of Turks worried that the US
was a potential military threat.
"Turkey
is at the receiving end of America's grand designs
in the Middle East," said Soli Ozel, a professor
of international relations at Bilgi University in
Istanbul. As a neighbor of Iran, Iraq and Syria,
the Turks would like a voice in US policy in the
region. The invasion of Iraq "simply has broken
the back of US-Turkish relations", added Taspinar.
The US-Turkish relationship will depend on how the
situation in Iraq, particularly northern Iraq,
evolves. It might not lead to a clash of arms, but
it forms the background for a thriller.
Despite promises and assurances, the
US has done nothing to weed out cadres of
the outlawed Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK) taking refuge in north Iraq. "The PKK is the
thorn in Turkey's foot, and it needs to be taken
out," said an expert, adding, "There's no other way
to move forward on US-Turkish relations."
Preston Hughes, a retired US Army colonel and
Turkey expert, said the US approach on the PKK "has
caused bitter frustration and even anger at the
highest levels" in Turkey.
Turkey is
rightly worried that Iraqi Kurds, emboldened by
their recent election performance and with a
decade long experience of near-autonomy, could
declare, if not independence, full autonomy,
especially if there is continued confusion and
chaos in Baghdad.
Many Turks believe that
some in the Bush administration may not try to
block an independent Kurdistan, especially if the
whole Iraq misadventure unravels. Israelis have
already conveyed this assessment to the Americans,
according to investigative journalist Seymour
Hersh. While a "solution" of Iraq breaking into
three parts (Kurdish, Sunni and Shi'ite) has been
openly discussed as a possibility in US media and
think-tanks, it has been whispered that Israel
might not be averse to an independent Kurdistan,
with US acquiescence, if not support. Turkey has
asked Israel to keep its hands off Kurdish northern
Iraq, where it was training peshmargas
(paramilitaries) for operations against
neighboring countries, especially Iran and Syria.
If Kurds take over Kirkuk, which
sits atop billions of barrels of oil, then
some experts believe that Turkey might make a go at it
alone in northern Iraq, or if there is a civil
war centered on Kirkuk between the Kurds, the Arabs and
the Turkmens. Turks are also worried about
neighboring Iran. Every other day someone or another in the
US talks about a US or Israeli attack on suspected
Iranian nuclear facilities. What a mess it would
then to add to Turkey's doorstep in the east.
Clearly, there is a lot of interest in
Rice revealing what is cooking in Bush's mind,
which she reportedly knows best and understands.
And Rice might wonder in turn what both historical
enemies have been cooking during the frequent
meetings between Erdogan and Putin. Or for that
matter the new overtures to the mullahs of Tehran,
another historical enemy. Turkey has also not
protested at the reported sale of Russian missiles
to Damascus, another enemy which Ankara threatened
to invade as recently as 1999.
K
Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired),
served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to
April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as
ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is
currently chairman of the Foundation for
Indo-Turkic Studies and editorial adviser with
global geopolitics website Eurasia Research
Center, USA. E-mail: Gajendrak@hotmail.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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