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US security threats, new and
old
By Ehsan Ahrari
Since the terrorist attacks on the United
States on September 11, 2001, the Central
Intelligence Agency's warnings about the
modalities of threats to US security have only
grown darker. The czars of America's intelligence
community seem to be operating on the basis of a
modus operandi that states it is better to be safe
than sorry. Thus one is left with a lot of room to
guess as to how much of the CIA's warnings are
real and what portion of them may be depicted as
calculated exaggeration. Be that as it may, one
cannot dismiss at least some major warnings issued
by the new director of central intelligence,
Porter Goss, on Wednesday during congressional
testimony.
A somewhat surprising aspect of
Goss's public testimony was China's military
modernization, which, according to him, is tilting
the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and is
threatening US forces in the region. The timing of
this statement is rather bizarre, since it comes
when China is busy finding a way to influence
North Korea to reinitiate the stalled six-nation
talks (involving the US, North Korea, China, South
Korea, Japan and Russia) on its reported
possession of nuclear weapons. As much as the
administration of US President George W Bush is
attempting to pursue a diplomatic resolution of
that issue, it is clear that it will not be able
to push North Korea in that direction without
China's active involvement.
Why antagonize
China at this juncture, then? One possibility is
that there might have been a mix-up among the CIA,
the State Department and the National Security
Council on the timing of public disclosure of this
matter. After all, China's military modernization
has been taking place ceaselessly for decades. In
fact, it can be argued that China's military
strategy in terms of a potential military solution
of the Taiwan conflict is somewhat dated. Beijing
has yet to take into consideration the US military
campaign strategies during Operation Enduring
Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom to tweak - or
radically alter - its own campaign plans against
Taiwan. Thus any depiction of China's activities
as "threatening" to the US forces in the region is
definitely an overstatement.
Goss was more
poignant in describing the potential threats to
the US from Islamist forces. He pointed out that
Iraq has become a training ground for global
jihadis, who are likely to use techniques and
weapons developed in that theater to carry out
future attacks on the US and elsewhere. Al-Qaeda
and other militant groups have not decelerated
their endeavors to acquire highly enriched uranium
to make "dirty bombs". He said it was only a
matter of time before such militant groups
attempted to use weapons of mass destruction.
As the new-generation leader of al-Qaeda,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has thus far proved himself
to be an effective recruiter of anti-American
elements and potential suicide bombers inside
Iraq. The question for the US intelligence
community is how far Zarqawi might be reaching
beyond Iraq in his campaign against the US.
Unfortunately, the way terrorist operations work,
more often than not it is only after another
tragedy that the international community becomes
aware of the specifics of the terrorists'
recruitment-related endeavors.
The Bush
administration's renewed focus on Iran and Syria
is also reflected in Goss's congressional
testimony. Even though the conflict between the US
and Iran involving the latter's alleged nuclear
ambitions is not yet resolved, Iran's alleged
activities in Iraq with a view to influencing the
shape of the future government have become a major
headache for Washington. As the United Iraqi
Alliance (UIA)has emerged as the leading political
entity, Iran's opportunities to influence the
Iraqi political milieu are almost infinite. It
does not have to push for an Islamic government,
even through the use of back channels for now.
That reality is likely to be materialized,
especially if the Sunni groups become as pragmatic
on the issue as the Shi'ites of the UIA currently
are. It has become apparent that even if Ibrahim
Jaafary emerges as the next prime minister of
Iraq, there is not likely to be any inertia on the
issue of the primacy of Islam for long.
One also has to pay special attention to
the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's entire
approach toward the separation of religion and
politics. Western observers mistakenly identified
that position as the Shi'ite version of
secularism. There is no doubt that Sistani never
wanted to be the head of Iraqi government;
however, he has had every intentions of remaining
its chief mentor. In that capacity, it will not be
too long before the primacy of Islam is likely to
become a reality, especially if the Kurds were to
waste a whole lot of their political capital over
the issue gaining independence, and if the Sunni
Arabs were to reach some sort of a rapprochement
with the Shi'ites over the primacy of the Shi'ite
and Sunni Sharia (Islamic law). So Iran can wait
patiently in the wings and watch the events unfold
in its favor. As the Bush administration watches
these developments, there is nothing it can do to
influence them directly without creating another
world-scale controversy.
In the meantime,
the murder of Lebanon's former prime minister
Rafik Hariri has given the US an opportunity to
influence events inside that country through the
use of diplomacy. Even Iran might have been
somewhat taken aback, if not by Hariri's murder,
but certainly at the US's quick decision to put
pressure on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. Goss'
remarks might also have been timed to put further
pressure on Iran and Syria, since it accuses Iran
of supporting terrorism, aiding Iraqi insurgents,
and seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. Through
the remarks, it is possible that the Bush
administration has decided to add a few new
wrinkles to its already established strategy of
transforming the Middle East. The new wrinkles
appear to be the decision to zoom in on both Iran
and Syria.
Syria's role, like that of
Iran's, in the Iraqi insurgency has also been a
source of considerable irritation to the US now it
has become clear to American diplomats that Syria
would not go out of its way to control the flow of
insurgents through its territory into Iraq. Thus a
decision was made to increase pressure on Syria to
get out of Lebanon, a move that might turn out to
be too much of a high price for Syria's old-line
autocrats who are really running the government in
the name of Bashar Assad, its current president.
Those autocrats are Ba'athists belonging to Hafez
Assad's generation who have no intention of
changing their way of governance of Syria and
Lebanon. The speed with which events seem to be
developing in Lebanon, it appears that the US
might be able to see the withdrawal of Syria from
that country before too long. Right now, Assad's
emissaries are looking for some sort of a
coalition-building in Iran, as if that coalition
would withstand the mighty force of international
pressure that is building up against Syria's
continued occupation. The US seems to be very much
in the forefront of such a move for a change.
At least regarding Iran and Syria, Goss'
ominous prognostications are not only well timed,
but are likely to increase pressure on both of
them. Iran is not likely to buckle under pressure
about its nuclear aspirations for the time being.
However, the chances are high that Syria's time to
pull out of Lebanon has finally arrived. It is too
bad that Rafik Hariri had to die to bring that
about. On its part, the US certainly appears not
to be letting up its pressure on Syria.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an
Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent
strategic analyst.
(Copyright 2005
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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