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    Middle East
     Mar 3, 2005
Dangerous vacuum in Lebanon
By Peyman Pejman

BEIRUT - Less than 24 hours after the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami, the dominant question here is, what next? Presidential spokesman Rafik Shalala said President Emil Lahoud was due to start consultations with parliament speaker Nabih Berri Wednesday on choosing a caretaker prime minister until elections due late April.

Shalala did not mention in his statement whether the president was willing to directly deal with maverick politician and opposition leader Walid Jumblatt, although indirect talks are believed to have already begun. Jumblatt said Tuesday the opposition would meet Wednesday to decide what steps to take. There has been bad blood between the opposition and the president, who, like Karami, is perceived as a Syrian ally.

Jumblatt has tried to make clear that he is not against Syria, and that he is only asking for the departure of the Syrian military and intelligence apparatus from Lebanon. "We are ready to negotiate any time with Syria, but the negotiation will be about the implementation of the Taif agreement," Jumblatt said after Karami's resignation. That agreement signed in 1989 requires Syrian forces to withdraw from Lebanon.

"Lebanon cannot but have good and friendly relations with Syria," he said. "The only thing we have been complaining about is the wrong policies and domination of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon."

Karami resigned Monday at the beginning of the afternoon session of the parliament meeting to discuss the killing of former premier Rafik Hariri.

In his speech in the morning session, Karami had given no sign of intending to resign, but he did just that a little later - to the surprise of many, including speaker and Karami's ally, Nabih Berri.

The speech by Hariri's sister Bahiya Hariri during Monday's parliament session is said to have upset Karami and provoked him to resign. Bahiya called for the cabinet's resignation and full investigation into the killing of the former prime minister.

Karami apparently took repeated and pointed attacks against himself and his government over the Hariri killing personally and, in the words of one politician, "felt injured".

Many observers here say they do not believe Syria asked for Karami's resignation. Widespread reports Tuesday morning, not denied by the presidency, say Lahoud asked Karami to delay his resignation by a day or two but Karami refused.

Karami's sudden resignation has created a political vacuum that can prove dangerous, says former prime minister Selim Hoss. "Yes, it is dangerous," Hoss told IPS. "This void can be filled only if the opposition is ready to engage in a process of consultations that is according to our constitution. I am one of those who is fearful now that this might not come about soon enough. The opposition is still reluctant to open up to the president."

Karami will stay in office until the parliament has approved the president's new nominee for the post, but Hoss says it is unlikely the current government will continue to perform its duties. That, he says, will bring uncertainty and potentially, violence.

"In practice, under the circumstances, I cannot imagine any of the ministers going to his office to conduct the daily affairs of his portfolio," Hoss said. "So I am afraid, very much afraid, that there would not be a minimum of government in the country and this would open up the situation to any possibility."

The office of a pro-Karami deputy was ransacked Monday night after the resignation, and there were reports that anti-government groups attacked a Karami statue in Tripoli, the prime minister's home town.

Hoss has announced he is forming a "third front" of intellectuals, technocrats and some politicians. The new movement, he said, could be common ground between supporters of Karami and Lahoud on one hand, and Jumblatt and the opposition on the other.

Hoss says if his movement can play a role, he would ask Syrian troops to withdraw to the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border, and negotiate a treaty with Damascus for the "eventual" withdrawal of all 15,000 Syrian military and intelligence organizations from Lebanon.

(Inter Press Service)



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