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Now comes Arab
pressure
By Ehsan Ahrari
Now Saudi Arabia and Egypt have initiated
the important phase of Arab pressure on Syria to
pull out of Lebanon. If Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad had any doubts about the meaning of the
growing Western chorus for Syria to withdraw its
15,000 troops from Lebanon, he should have no
doubts about it now. Still he is stalling,
reportedly releasing trial balloons about what his
optimal choice should be: perhaps pull out most of
his troops, but still maintain a foothold in
Lebanon.
The post-September 11, 2001, era
seems to have considerably weakened the
impasse-oriented aspect of Arab politics. One
example of this new development is emerging in
Lebanon: it is likely to win independence from a
long-standing Syrian occupation, and soon.
To everyone's surprise, a major change is in
the making after the assassination of former Lebanese
premier Rafik Hariri two weeks ago. Persuading
Syria to get out of Lebanon would not have
been easy before that development; however, the
Middle Eastern version of the "Velvet Revolution"
- or the "Cedar Revolution" to be precise
- is about to materialize, with the United States'
help, and now, with visible help from some Arab
states. America's military power is lurking in the
background, at least tacitly, signaling Damascus
that any attempt to crush that Cedar Revolution
will be met with equally brutal force.
The
Lebanese government of pro-Syrian Prime Minister
Omar Karameh resigned on February 28. There was
enormous jubilation in the streets of Beirut.
People smelled the crumbling of Syrian hegemony in
their country. Emile Lahoud, the Syrian-backed
president of Lebanon - whose tenure was illegally
extended by three years at Syria's behest - may be
contemplating his next move: buying a luxurious
bungalow on the outskirts of Paris or elsewhere in
southern France.
The international
community spoke at the United Nations on September
2, 2004, when it passed Security Council
Resolution 1559, calling for the withdrawal of all
foreign forces from Lebanon and restoring its
sovereignty. The fact that the US and France
cooperated for the passage of that resolution
spoke volumes about how much resentment was
building up in the West about the Syrian resolve
to maintain its occupation of Lebanon forever, if
possible. The sad part was that there was no
resentment of any sort in other Arab capitals
regarding Syrian occupation of a sister Arab
state.
Now Arab leaders seem to understand
the power of the information age that is posing an
increasing threat to their old thinking about
forces of change. Their old attitude was if you
ignore those forces, or suppress them long enough,
they will go away. Now they know it is an entirely
different era, and a very different ball game in
Lebanon. The assassination of Hariri created a
firestorm of protest inside Lebanon, a reality
that is being closely watched by the world at
large. In addition, given that US forces were in
Iraq, Syria could not have cavalierly suppressed
this near-popular uprising against its occupation
of Lebanon.
To be sure, there is no
credible evidence that Syria killed Hariri, who
opposed the presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon.
However, it remains a major suspect, its vehement
denials to the contrary notwithstanding. At this
point, even the absence of credible evidence
implicating Syria is not helping that country.
What is important is that if Hariri's death could
become a reason for building the momentum for the
liberation of Lebanon from Syrian occupation, the
Lebanese popular movement is determined to exploit
it to the fullest extent. The US is wholly
supporting Lebanese public opinion in this regard.
President George W Bush kept the demand of
Syrian withdrawal very much in the international
limelight during his recent European tour. In this
information age, the Lebanese masses are fully
aware that international pressure is working in
their favor. They had witnessed what the Velvet
Revolution achieved in Ukraine only a few weeks
ago. Thus they are also determined to use Hariri's
assassination as one more reason to tell the world
that they want Syria to get out of Lebanon. The
battle cry of the Lebanese masses is simply
"Enough". By that they mean enough of Lebanese
humiliation under Syrian occupation. Who knows,
this struggle to end Syrian occupation might turn
into a real force for democracy in that country.
The gathering momentum of the Cedar
Revolution or people's power in Lebanon has
sweeping potential implications for the Middle
East at large. Where will it stop? Its immediate
purpose is to expel Syria from Lebanon. Then what?
If Lebanon were to hold free elections in the
coming months, the Hezbollah Party is likely to
emerge as a major political force. The Bush
administration must know that. What are the
implications of that development to relations
between Lebanon and Israel? One possibility - a
remote one, but a feasible possibility
nevertheless - is that there might be some sort of
Lebanese-Israeli rapprochement. Syria might be
thinking about just such a development in the
mid-range future.
Assad may not want to see
that development materialize, because Syria had
high hopes of using the "Hezbollah card" to push
Israel into withdrawing from the Golan Heights
some day. Once Syrian forces get out of Lebanon,
there is no likelihood that Assad will be able to
use the Hezbollah card for the resolution of the
Syrian-Israeli conflict. It will be a new ball
game for Syria, and right now it does not like the
odds that are piling up against it.
Now
Syria wishes to maintain at least 3,000 troops and
early warning devices in Lebanon. It already has
radar stations in the Dah el-Baider mountains, on
the Syrian-Israeli borders. However, Saudi Crown
Prince Abdullah is insisting on complete Syrian
withdrawal. Perhaps the Saudi intelligence is also
deeply suspicious of Syrian complicity in the
assassination of Hariri, who held Saudi
citizenship and was close to the Saudi royal
family.
Assad still seems to be living, at
least in his own mind, in the Cold War years. As
an apparent stalling move, he sent his foreign
minister to Moscow for consultation, as if Russia
still holds any cards in the world balance of
power, as did the old Soviet Union. Prince
Abdullah and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt know
better. They are hoping their description of what
is at stake for Syria made ample sense to Assad.
There is no doubt that Syria will come out
the big loser from this episode. The definite
winner is Lebanon, when (not if) Syria pulls out
its forces. The second winner will be the US. The
Bush administration is already claiming
responsibility of its own role for putting
pressure on Syria. No one can deny the US a major
credit in that regard.
The presence of
US forces in Iraq is making Damascus very
nervous. In fact, an argument can be made that as
Washington turns up the heat on Assad to pull out
of Lebanon, he is likely to suffer from the same
nervous syndrome that forced Muammar Gaddafi of
Libya to completely abandon his nuclear and
chemical programs. The Libyan dictator was
reported to be having visions of himself in a
small cell somewhere, awaiting a trial, as Saddam
Hussein is today. In all likelihood, Assad might
be envisioning a similar future for himself, if he
forces America's hand on Lebanon.
That
might be one reason why Assad told the Italian
newspaper La Repubblica that Syria would require
"serious guarantees". Undoubtedly, such guarantees
should come from the US. In the absence of the
specifics of such guarantees, it is safe to assume
that Assad, like Gaddafi, is seeking guarantees
against regime change. It is also possible that he
wants Washington to become visibly active in
starting negotiations on the future of the Golan
Heights. What Assad may also know is that now his
negotiating position has become too weak and
flimsy. Right now he should only concentrate on
avoiding the potential of regime change by getting
out of Lebanon, and soon.
Ehsan
Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia,
US-based independent strategic analyst. Please
click here to visit
his website.
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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