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Three neighbors, plus
one
By Dr Bulent Aras
The Middle East is subject to direct
international interference through the
interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq and through
political attempts to transform the region
socially, politically and economically. Calls for
reform and renovation have reached a heightened
level, and Western states are pushing for the
development of good governance, democracy, and
human rights in Middle Eastern societies.
Turkey, Syria and Iran are influential
actors in Middle Eastern politics. The relations
and the cooperation among these states occur at a
time when Syria and Iran have been accused by the
US administration of President George W Bush of
being antagonists to a peaceful and democratic
international system. The ongoing relations among
these states, and how these states interact with
the international community, are revealing since
they are important components of the regional
power balance.
Regional
interactions
The US administration has
adopted a high-profile policy against Syria and
Iran and poses a threat to these countries.
Washington accuses the two states of supporting
terrorism in the region, pursuing clandestine
activities in Iraq, and building weapons of mass
destruction. Of these two countries, the Bush
administration primarily points out Iran for its
alleged nuclear-weapons program. The
administration argues that Iran is very close to
acquiring nuclear weapons considering the progress
of its nuclear-enrichment facilities. The
administration is pursuing a number of measures to
slow Iran's development of nuclear material, from
tightening the economic-sanctions policy on the
country to attacking its nuclear facilities.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has
pursued a more pragmatic line in relations with
the West, particularly after the attacks of
September 11, 2001. His pursuing a constructive
policy line helped his relations with the
international community but could not rid his
country of the suspicions directed at it. Syria is
accused of supporting international terrorism, in
addition to the old and continuous allegations of
Damascus' support for terrorist and militant
activities in Israel. In addition, there are new
accusations that terrorist networks - mainly
al-Qaeda - have connections in Syria and that
Syrian Ba'athists support old Ba'athist cadres in
Iraq, who are believed to constitute the backbone
of the resistance in the country. Although
evidence has not been provided for many of these
accusations, the Bush administration has used them
to heighten its pressure on Syria.
Turkey
has long borders with both Iran and Syria and is
in the same region. However, it displays a
different regional and international profile.
Turkey has undergone a reform process in the
legal, political and economic realms in an effort
to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria of the European
Union; it also worked with an International
Monetary Fund-led economic program. Turkey's
transformation put an end to the Cold War style of
a security state apparatus and changed the
framework of its domestic and foreign policy. The
practical result has been adopting an active
diplomacy to minimize problems with neighboring
countries.
The March 2003 parliamentary
motion that forbade US troops from using Turkish
territory in the war against Iraq was a historical
turning point for Turkey. The Turkish parliament
prevented the United States from opening a
northern front against Iraq on the given
justification that the international community
considered the war illegitimate. Turkey's decision
prolonged the process of the Iraqi invasion,
forced the US to search for greater legitimacy,
and drew more attention to the Palestinian
question as a reason for much of the region's
instability. While Turkey is accustomed to
balancing between the chaotic Middle Eastern
system and the peace and stability of Europe, it
now appears to be moving closer to the EU. In this
respect, Syria and Iran approve of Turkey's EU
membership process and consider a European Turkey
as a chance to develop their relations with the
EU.
Turkish-Syrian-Iranian
relations
For a long time, both Turkey and
Syria were locked in a relationship shaped by
historical enmity, the prevalence of hostile
establishment ideologies, and the attempts of
policymakers to "externalize" some major domestic
problems. After Syria's expulsion of the leader of
the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party in 1997,
the relations returned to a good track. Syria also
has been the first test case of Turkey's
good-neighbor policy. In late December, Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a two-day
visit to Syria, which brought optimistic prospects
for future bilateral relations.
More
specifically, close relations between Turkey and
Syria seem meaningful from the commercial and
security standpoints. During the Turkish
delegation's visit to Damascus, the two sides
signed a free-trade agreement with the idea of
expanding it to the regional level. Policymakers
in both countries share the view that they have
legitimate concerns about the future of Iraq and
should cooperate in every possible way, as they
already have started doing through the meeting of
the countries bordering Iraq, to enhance
stability.
Turkish-Iranian relations were
shaped under the effect of the nature of the
changing regime in Iran, conflicting interests in
Central Asia and the Caucasus, relations with the
United States and Israel, and the anxiety about
the future of Iraq in general and northern Iraq in
particular. Investments of Turkish companies in
Iran and agreements concerning the purchase of
natural gas have added a new dimension to the
relations in recent years. Domestic politics in
both countries has come to play an important role
in the relations with each other. Turkey follows a
similarly accommodating policy line as the EU when
it comes to Iran.
Ankara is anxious about
the context of international relations emerging in
the triangle of the US, Israel and nuclear
weapons. Turkey has had a sense of security based
on its superiority of conventional weapons and
promotes the idea of an active international
diplomacy to bring Iran to internationally
acceptable terms in this regard. Ankara's one
major concern is that both countries strive for
the territorial integrity of Iraq and for the
establishment of a stable neighbor state.
Syrian-Iranian relations follow a
different path. Damascus has kept troops in
Lebanon and supports, along with Iran, militant
groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. After the US
administration's recall of its ambassador in
Damascus and the heightening of tension between
Washington and Tehran, Syria and Iran declared
that they will act together and form a common
front against perceived external threats.
Is an enduring cooperation
possible?
Although most of the structural
and historical problems for improving relations
among these three countries have been part of
history, there are a number of impediments that
are likely to prevent this relationship from
emerging as long-term cooperation. The major
impediment is Washington's hardline policy against
Syria and Iran. It has been a catchword in the
influential circles of the Bush administration
that these two countries are serious problems for
US interests in the greater Middle East.
Although the US administration is mostly
alone in its allegations of organized Syrian
meddling in Iraq, it has the EU on board,
especially France, in its opposition to Syrian
interference in Lebanon. The US-Iran tensions are
more serious and likely to yield more destructive
results in a shorter period of time. The US
attitude differs from the general approach of the
international community, but if Iranian
uranium-enrichment activities continue, this
situation may change against Iran.
The
recent period also witnessed oscillating relations
between Turkey and the US due to the conflict in
Iraq. Turkey's parliamentary motion that
disallowed US soldiers to enter Iraq through
Turkish territory was a surprising development for
US policymakers. Although relations have improved
in due course, there is an implicit mistrust on
both sides.
Ankara is not satisfied with
the US administration's declaration that it is in
favor of Iraq's territorial integrity and does not
support the idea of a Kurdish state in northern
Iraq. The US administration is not happy with the
rising anti-Americanism in Turkish society and
anti-American discourse in the media and academic
circles. There have been problematic periods
between Turkey and the US in the past, but the
Turkish administration did not permit the
escalation of the tension to a level that would
undermine relations. Considering the current state
of relations, Turkey has gained more room to
maneuver vis-a-vis US policies in the Middle East.
However, Turkey's domestic political balances,
regional preferences and international
orientations set a limit for its alienation from
the US. Turkey's main strength in the region
derives from its close relations with both the US
and the EU.
Turkey's new policy line aims
to promote a regional peacemaker role and gives
priority to democratic legitimacy in international
relations. If Syria and Iran do not act according
to the demands of the international community,
then it may be difficult for Turkey to pursue
relations at the current level. Turkey's new
neighborhood policy has a vision of minimizing the
problems in its neighboring regions, but wants to
avoid being pulled into international
confrontations. Otherwise, Turkey will contradict
with its projected aims and targets in the region.
Conclusion
The escalation of
tension between the US and Syria and Iran will
dominate the fate of the region in the near
future. The regional countries face the reality
that regional politics is no longer independent
from the realities of world politics of the era
following September 11, 2001. The relations among
Turkey, Syria and Iran are exemplary in this
sense. An enduring cooperation among countries
needs to be built on a delicate balance between
shared interests of the parties and the
perceptions of international society, especially
those in the top echelons of the power hierarchy
in international relations.
The second
half of this decade will be difficult for both the
allies and the enemies of the US in the Middle
East. On the enemy side, the current US
administration poses serious threats to Iran and
Syria. On the allies' side, as Turkey recognized
in the recent period, they may come face to face
with making a choice between their regional
interests and US regional designs. US pressure on
its allies and enemies is likely to yield changes
on the domestic and foreign policies of these
countries and to change the patterns of
cooperation and conflict in the region.
Published with permission of the Power
and Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com. |
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