"We are united here to above all thank Syria, the Syrian people and the Syrian army, which has stayed by our side for many long years and is still with us," said Hezbollah's popular secretary general, Hasan Nasrullah, to a sea of about 500,000 demonstrators, far more than have attended opposition rallies.

The demonstration was organized by the Shi'ite militia-cum-political party that represents Lebanon's largest denominational community. Held in Riad al-Solh square, it may not have projected quite the elan of the so-called "Cedar Revolution", but the sheer numbers suggest the international community has misjudged the balance of opinion, and power, in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is a crucial link in the ongoing confrontation between the US and Syria that has come to a head since Hariri's dramatic assassination. By entering the fray so forcefully, Hezbollah has simply acknowledged its own central role in the drama that was spinning out of control around it.

Though the focus of international attention has been on demands for Syria to withdraw its long-standing troop presence from Lebanon, an ancillary demand, pushed by the United States and Israel, has been for the disbandment of Hezbollah's military wing - the Islamic Resistance. That demand is implicit in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, which Hezbollah has rejected as "foreign interference" in Lebanon's affairs, in favor of the Taif Accord of 1989 that ended Lebanon's civil war.

America's and Israel's insistence on Hezbollah's disbandment - Europe has been more cautious - would appear to be out of step with the domestic opinion in Lebanon that the administration of US President George W Bush claims to support. While the US State Department has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization (and is pressuring the European Union to do likewise), the group's role in successfully driving Israel out of South Lebanon in 2000 has given it enormous prestige in Lebanon and the Arab world. Few Lebanese, even in the opposition, seem eager to see it disarm, especially with Israel still considered a threat.

Why Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is a target for a number of reasons. Its symbolism as an anti-Western and militarily successful resistance organization means it has a negative impact on public opinion in the Middle East vis-a-vis the US, and an inspirational effect on other militant organizations.

And as a prestigious ally and proxy to Syria and Iran, Hezbollah complicates America's regional goals. President Bush may have had this nexus in mind when he said on Monday, "The time has come for Syria and Iran to stop

QUOTES AND NOTES "Today, I have a message for the people of Lebanon: All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. The American people are at your side." - US President George W Bush, during a speech on terrorism at National Defense University, Tuesday, March 8. Seventy thousand people turned out on Monday to demand that Syrian forces leave Lebanon. On Tuesday, March 8, 500,000 pro-Syrian demonstrators, organized by Hezbollah, took to the streets, presumably without Bush at their side.

using murder as a tool of policy, and to end all support for terrorism." As a symbol of defiance, Hezbollah also has the potential to disrupt Washington's plans for the region's political evolution, as well as the Arab-Israeli "peace process", and even US stewardship of Iraq, given Hezbollah's kinship with Iraq's new Shi'ite power brokers.

Hariri's assassination and the quick response from the Lebanese opposition and Washington created the initial impression of a spontaneous crisis between Washington and Syria and, by extension, Hezbollah. But the current confrontation began in the 1980s and has boiled over at various times since the Bush administration came to office.

Likewise, many of the media have portrayed the visit of Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari to Tehran shortly after the assassination as the blossoming of a new, anti-American alliance. In fact, the Syrian-Iranian alliance goes back to the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, and ever since Syria and Iran have nurtured Hezbollah, with Syria offering protection, and Iran arms and training.

So the board was already set when Hariri was assassinated; it's only the pace of the game that has quickened. And though it only has a minor role in this wider regional confrontation, Hezbollah's spectacular cameos have drawn ire in the West and infamy in the East.

The Hezbollah 'bogeyman'
The ubiquitous description in US press reports about the militant group is that "it has killed more Americans than any other group other than al-Qaeda". Hezbollah became synonymous with terrorism in the US lexicon in October 1983, when a suicide bomber (from a group that the US claims later morphed into Hezbollah) crashed into the US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut, killing 241 US servicemen. Other attacks in Lebanon were also pinned on Hezbollah, and many American analysts would later credit the United States' withdrawal from Lebanon with emboldening al-Qaeda. The US grievance against Hezbollah is, in some ways, an old-fashioned blood feud.

Israel's vendetta against Hezbollah relates to the fact that the group, as it often states, delivered "the first Arab victory in the history of Arab-Israeli conflict". In addition to the toll in blood - Israel lost 900 soldiers in Lebanon - many Israeli generals blame Hezbollah, and Israeli premier Ehud Barak's decision to withdraw, for inspiring the al-Aqsa intifada. Hezbollah's steadfast anti-Zionism is also cloying to the Israeli government, though Hezbollah emphasizes that it will not interfere in the Palestinians' decision to reach a settlement - something Nasrullah calls a "Palestinian matter". The conflict with Israel endures primarily because Hezbollah and Syria claim the Shebaa farms region in South Lebanon as Lebanese territory (the UN does not).

Hezbollah, of course, has a longer list of grievances, and a deeper body count, than its adversaries. The group was founded, with help from revolutionary Iran, as a result of the 1982 Israeli invasion that killed up to 19,000 Lebanese, largely Shi'ites in the south. There are also personal grievances - the US Central Intelligence Agency allegedly attempted to assassinate one of Hezbollah's spiritual inspirations, Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, in 1985, missing him but killing 80 others. Nasrullah's 18-year-old son Hadi was also killed fighting the Israeli occupation.

The Bush administration, for its part, has made no secret of its desire to settle accounts. When he was deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage famously said, "Hezbollah may be the 'A' team of terrorists and maybe al-Qaeda is actually the 'B' team. And they're on the list and their time will come." With Hariri's assassination, the administration evidently believes that the time has indeed come.

Few argue, however, that Hezbollah currently targets Americans. In the 1990s, US intelligence and Israel blamed Hezbollah for attacking Jewish and Israeli targets in South America. Some have also accused it of bombing the Khobar Towers military base in Saudi Arabia in 1996. But Hezbollah was quick to condemn the attacks of September 11, 2001, and Israeli attempts to link it to al-Qaeda have failed.

The focus is instead on capacity. Critics argue that as a conduit for Syria and Iran, and as an anti-American group with "global reach", it has the potential to be supplied with weapons of mass destruction, which it could disseminate or use against US interests. A 2004 study by the influential Rand Corp used precisely that logic to name Hezbollah as one of the three most serious threats faced by the US. Hezbollah thus falls within the Bush administration's "preemptive" threat doctrine, and it will be a test of the relevance of that doctrine as to whether it is applied to Hezbollah.

A coordinated campaign
It is hardly a secret that the US and Israel have coordinated their campaign against Syria and Hezbollah. Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told the Knesset (parliament) on February 23, "Giving back Lebanon's sovereignty to the Lebanese depends on the dismantling of Hezbollah. Israel is acting towards the realization of this vital objective in a worldwide political campaign." Shalom added, "In coordination with the US we are especially pressuring the EU countries into placing Hezbollah on to the list of terrorists."

Israel's endeavors in this regard have focused on blaming Hezbollah for terrorist acts carried out against Israel by Palestinian groups, such as the February 25 suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. In fact, Sharon has claimed, Hezbollah is responsible for "80% of attacks on Israel". The Bush administration has taken up the charge that Hezbollah is trying to undermine the Palestinian Authority's new president, Mahmoud Abbas. After looking over Israeli-supplied intelligence, acting assistant secretary of state David Satterfield railed against "Hezbollah's active engagement in acts of violence and terror directed against Israelis", and said, "They need to stop and to stop immediately."

The US campaign against Hezbollah has been primarily focused on the group's fundraising and media efforts. The US Justice Department has spent considerable time and resources pursuing Hezbollah "cells" in the US. None have been actively involved in military affairs, but a great deal of attention was given to a group in North Carolina in 2003 convicted of operating a cigarette-smuggling cartel that funneled funds to Hezbollah. A new book on the subject,  Lightning out of Lebanon: Terrorist Cells on American Soil, was serendipitously published this month by Barbara Newman of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD).

The FDD is one of a string of right-wing, pro-Israel policy groups that form the backbone of the campaign against Hezbollah. As Adam Shatz wrote in the New York Review of Books, "Dick Cheney's new adviser on Syrian policy, David Wurmser, a pro-Likud ideologue, is an open advocate of preemptive war against Syria and Hezbollah, a position favored by neo-conservatives in and close to the Bush administration, such as Douglas Feith, John Bolton and Richard Perle."

The White House's broader strategy has been to try to get the international community to replicate the legal measures the US has taken against Hezbollah. On his first post-election trip to Europe in mid-February, Bush put intense pressure on the EU to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. A congressional resolution (H RES 101), introduced on February 15, also urges the EU to ban Hezbollah. Such a move would isolate Hezbollah politically, and prevent it from raising funds in Europe through charities. So far the US hasn't succeeded, largely because of French resistance - for which France earned the fearful moniker of "pro-Arab" from the displeased Israeli premier, Ariel Sharon.

Efforts to shut down Hezbollah's highly successful TV station, al-Manar (The Beacon), which claims 10 million to 15 million viewers, have had more success. That campaign has been led in the US by right-wing groups such as the Coalition Against Terrorist Media. The US State Department put al-Manar on the Terrorism Exclusion List on December 17, in effect preventing it from broadcasting in the US, and it was recently banned in France, largely because of the screening of an undeniably anti-Semitic Egyptian miniseries.

Enter Nasrullah
The problem faced by the US and Israel at the moment is one of overreach. With its demonstration on Tuesday, Hezbollah has put paid to the idea that the Lebanese are united in their opposition to Syria or in favor of disarming the Shi'ite militia. And as an integral part of the Lebanese political process, Hezbollah will have considerable pull in the formation of any future government.

Had the US focused exclusively on a Syrian withdrawal, it might be in a more tenable position. Nasrullah has emphasized that Hezbollah supports a Syrian pullout, but only under the Taif Accord - an Arab agreement - rather than Resolution 1559. It is precisely the anti-Hezbollah provisions of 1559 that alienate many Lebanese, who see those provisions as intended to benefit Israel.

While Hezbollah has a surprisingly moderate domestic political platform - one observer called it "almost social democratic" - the rub so far as Washington is concerned lies in its external policy, particularly on the "peace process". Rumors in the press that the Lebanese opposition has been in talks with the Israeli government have been seized on by Nasrullah, who has said that the group would not agree to negotiations, even if the Lebanese government did. Its Syrian patron's long-standing policy is that Lebanon and Syria must negotiate an agreement with Israel together because of Israel's strategic superiority.

It will not be easy for the US to sideline Hezbollah. Regionally, the group has close religious ties to Iraq's new Shi'ite-dominated government, which makes threatening it risky - Nasrullah studied in Najaf with many of the Da'wa Party's clerics, whose candidate (Ibrahim Jaafari ) may become Iraq's next prime minister. In addition, popular Arab support makes tackling Hezbollah difficult. And though Syria appears weak at the moment, its support, and the support of Iran, still makes Hezbollah a potent military force.

With deep popular support, and having driven out the US and the Israelis in turn from Lebanon, Hezbollah is understandably defiant. On Tuesday, addressing the possibility of a US intervention, Nasrullah told the half-million supporters gathered in central Beirut, "We have defeated them in the past, and if they come again we will defeat them again."

Ashraf Fahim is a freelance writer on Middle Eastern affairs based in New York and London. His writing can be found at www.storminateacup.org.uk.

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