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THE
ROVING EYE
IRA and Sinn Fein in
Iraq
By Pepe Escobar
Is this the MPLA?
Is this the
UDA?
Is this the IRA?
I thought it was the
UK
Or just another country
- The
Sex Pistols, Anarchy in the UK, 1977
Sunni guerrilla attacks in Iraq remain
as devastating as ever, while 40-odd days after
the elections the country remains adrift, in
chaos, without a government, with more than 60% of
the workforce "liberated" from any hope of finding
any jobs.
The election-winning,
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani-blessed United Iraqi Alliance
(UIA) seems to be paralyzed on two separate fronts
by the Kurds and the Sunnis. It still has not
decided which Sunnis it wants to participate in
governing the new Iraq. The bulk of the Iraqi
resistance is secular, not Islamist; it is powered
by Iraqi national fervor and will do anything to
expel the occupying power. The military kernel of
the resistance is composed of disgruntled former
Ba'athists and/or Republican Guard officials. And
then there are a few hundred Salafist jihadis from
neighboring Arab countries - powered by Arab
nationalism. The interests of these three strands
overlap - not least the fact that Sunnis overall
view with extreme suspicion what could be the dawn
of Shi'ite Iraq.
The Shi'ite reaching-out
operation is in shambles. The UIA at least has
made it clear it won't negotiate anything with the
Salafists - but they are an absolute (although
deadly) minority anyway. A simplistic caricature
of the guerrillas portrays them as nihilists with
no viable political agenda. That's not the case.
Sources in Baghdad confirm that influential echelons of
the resistance are actively engaged in the
political unification of an array of disparate
groups and in concentrating their message to
solidify their support from the bulk of the Sunni
population. These are not the car-bombing,
civilian-slaughtering gangs talking: this is more
like the Iraqi version of the Irish Republican
Army (IRA) polishing up a Mesopotamian Sinn Fein.
Even though the Sunni guerrillas
are substantially united against a new
Iraqi government monopolized by exiles who lived
in luxury in Iran or the West during the
Saddam Hussein era - which is the exact profile of
the UIA leaders, this Sinn Fein strand of
the resistance would be willing to negotiate with
the new Shi'ite government. As a common objective
is crystal clear - the complete withdrawal of
the Americans, with a clear timetable - there
should be no beef, at least in theory, with the
Shi'ite leadership. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq, told Le Monde this week that no one in
Iraq wanted permanent US military bases in the
country: "It will be up to the elected Iraqi
government, when the time comes, to give those
forces a specific departure date. As soon as
possible."
Prime minister-in-waiting
Ibrahim Jaafari, for the moment, remains a
prisoner of his own rhetoric. In his view, the
guerrillas are composed of a "minority of Sunnis"
(this may be true as far as the military-trained
core is concerned; but they may number as many as
40,000). Around them, he sees a larger group of
"mostly young people" who support the resistance
but "are good people" (they may be hundreds of
thousands). Jaafari all but admits the new
government won't convince the hard, militarized
resistance core, but it can seduce the "good
people" around it by offering "good
representation" of Sunnis. It won't be enough - as
it did not work even with Sunni tribal chief Ghazi
al-Yawer installed as interim president.
The only way out for the UIA is to reach
out and offer the Sunnis something really
substantial. But it can't - for the moment -
because it's paralyzed by the Kurds.
Several key Sunni tribal leaders have been
involved in meetings leading them to be engaged in
the political process. Many are connected to the
powerful Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars
(AMS), which still has not been approached by the
UIA, although the AMS is more the willing to talk.
On the other had, the AMS remains in close contact
with the Sadrist movement of Shi'ite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr. They are united on the basics:
Americans out, with a fixed timetable. Muqtada is
exceptionally well positioned: he is just waiting
to publicly call the bluff of the Najaf religious
Valhalla - which has propelled the UIA and Jaafari
to the limelight - if there is no pressure from
the new government for a US withdrawal.
Sources in Baghdad insist on rising, very
dangerous popular frustration with the political
stalemate. A crucial development is that most
Shi'ites - and not a few Sunnis - are blaming the
Kurds for it. The Kurds want Kirkuk - their
Jerusalem - at all costs. They are bent on
stalling the formation of a new Iraqi government
until kingdom come - and the Shi'ites deliver them
the promised land. It cannot happen. If the
Shi'ites agree to give Kirkuk to the Kurds, that's
the end of any possibility of entente cordiale
with Sunni Arabs. It would be a certified road to
civil war.
The UIA simply cannot promise
anything involving Kirkuk without Sunni approval.
The only feasible solution to the current impasse
would be a real reaching out move by the UIA,
encouraging something like a grand reunion of
Kirkuk Arab powerbrokers, plus the AMS, reaching a
consensus, and then offering the Kurds the outline
of a deal involving Kirkuk. The Shi'ites need the
Sunnis more than ever to solve the first immediate
crisis of Shi'ite Iraq. A breakthrough will ensure
that the Sunni resistance will continue to develop
its Sinn Fein alongside the IRA.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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