|
|
|
|
Israel not entirely convinced
By Peter Hirschberg
JERUSALEM - The initial reactions bordered
on the euphoric. Lebanese citizens were pouring
into the streets of Beirut in open defiance of
Damascus, and Israelis were cheering. Talk in
Israel of a democratic, Syria-free neighbor to its
north abounded. Some even speculated Lebanon might
be the next Arab country - after Egypt and Jordan
- to forge a peace treaty with Israel.
One
of those was Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who
spoke of the possibility of making peace with
Lebanon once it was free of Syrian military
occupation. In fact, a Syrian withdrawal and the
weakening of Hezbollah, combined with progress on
the Israel-Palestinian track, he said, could be
the key to better relations between Israel and
other Muslim countries.
Such developments,
he said, would contribute "to the stability of the
Mideast, and the possibility of us conducting a
dialogue with many more Arab and Islamic
countries".
Vice Premier Shimon Peres went
even further, actually calling for peace talks
between Israel and Lebanon following a Syrian
withdrawal. "If Syria pulls out of Lebanon
completely," he said, "it will be possible to
embark on diplomatic steps toward an agreement."
But the optimism has cooled a little, and
has been replaced in part by Israeli concerns over
how developments in Lebanon might affect its
northern border. Some security officials have
expressed fears that Syria might allow Hezbollah,
which operates with the backing of Damascus, to
heat up the border with Israel as it withdraws, in
order to illustrate how Syria's presence in
Lebanon is required to ensure stability.
Shalom also told United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan in New York last week that
Israel had information Syria was beefing up its
intelligence forces in Lebanon, even as President
Bashar Assad spoke of withdrawing his forces.
Labor Party lawmaker and former deputy
defense minister Ephraim Sneh is one of the more
circumspect voices in Israel: "Syria won't give up
easily in Lebanon," he told IPS. Sneh, who was
commander of Israel's security zone in south
Lebanon in 1981-82, says Damascus will try to
build a coalition to counter the
Sunni-Maronite-Druze coalition that wants it out.
Hezbollah, he adds, will be a "pillar" of this
coalition, and if internal hostilities erupt, it
could "spill over in our direction".
He
also warns of another scenario, where south
Lebanon is "consolidated as Hezbollah-land, as a
pro-Syrian stronghold. That won't be good for
Israel. Hezbollah has 13,000 [Syrian-supplied]
rockets and missiles and they can be aimed at
Israel. That is remarkable fire power."
Since Israel withdrew from south Lebanon
in mid-2000 after occupying a buffer zone there
for almost 20 years, the border between the two
countries has been largely quiet, with occasional
flare-ups between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli
troops.
The most serious incident was the
kidnapping in October 2000 of three Israeli
soldiers by Hezbollah during a routine border
patrol. Their bodies - they were apparently killed
during the initial clash or died of their wounds
shortly after - were returned to Israel in January
2004, as part of a prisoner exchange deal in which
Israel freed more than two dozen Lebanese and
other Arab prisoners.
After Israel invaded
Lebanon in 1982, it withdrew its forces from
Beirut to a buffer zone in the south of the
country which was meant to prevent the firing of
Katyusha rockets into Israel as well as attempts
to infiltrate into the north of the country.
But as time went on, Hezbollah began to
wage an effective guerilla war against Israeli
forces. With the troop death toll mounting
steadily, extra-parliamentary groups in Israel
launched a campaign calling on the government to
"bring the boys back home". Former Labor Party
leader Ehud Barak adopted this as a campaign
pledge, and after winning the election he did just
that, unilaterally withdrawing all Israeli forces
in May 2000 to the internationally-recognized
border.
While the pullout has brought long
stretches of quiet to the border region, some in
Israel still fear that with Hezbollah effectively
controlling south Lebanon, the potential for a
major flareup remains. The organization, which
operates also with backing from Tehran, has made
it clear that it is opposed to a Syrian withdrawal
from Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hasan
Nasrullah recently accused the anti-Syrian
opposition in Lebanon of "collaborating with
Israel".
Until not long ago, many in the
Israeli security establishment viewed Syria as a
stabilizing force in Lebanon: Damascus was willing
to allow Hezbollah to operate - against Israel as
well - but only up to a point that usually did not
precipitate a major conflagration. But the US
invasion of Iraq, the subsequent growing American
pressure on Syria, and Hezbollah's backing of some
Palestinian armed groups in a bid to undermine the
latest calm in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have
all changed that view.
Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon, along with Shalom, have said in
recent days that Syria must completely withdraw
from Lebanon, and that a partial pullout is not
acceptable. Israeli leaders also warned that Syria
might withdraw its troops but retain control by
leaving its intelligence units in Lebanon. There
have also been reports of contacts between senior
Israeli government officials and Lebanese
opposition figures.
These public comments
and the leaks about channels of communication
between Israel and Lebanon have raised
Washington's ire. US officials are said to have
told their Israeli counterparts to tone down their
statements, for fear they will undermine the
anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon and serve the
interests of the pro-Syrian forces like Hezbollah.
American officials are also worried that reports
about Israeli calls for the US not to relent in
its pressure on Syria will depict them as doing
Israel's bidding - an image that will not serve
their interests in the region.
For now,
Ephraim Sneh suggests Israel's leaders adopt a
cautious, sober approach. "It is pleasant to see
young demonstrators on the streets," he says. "But
any joy is premature."
(Inter Press
Service) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
Asian Sex Gazette Middle East Sex News
|
|
|
