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COMMENTARY
The twists and turns
of 'Syria first'
By Rabbi Moshe
Reiss
According to the official sources,
all of Arabs' problems are due to colonialism or
imperialism and Zionism. One could claim that the
glue that holds the diverse Arab countries
together is the claim that all their problems
arose as a result of US (combined with earlier
British and French) imperialism and Israeli
Zionism.
Let us take one geographic area
of the Arab world and try to understand how these
well-defined causes have created a particular
outcome; while we will concentrate on Syria and
Lebanon, the two neighboring countries of Iraq and
Iran (which is not Arab, but is an Islamic state)
have an impact.
Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad
and Tehran can be considered a large neighborhood
(in the Texas sense). Beirut is close enough to
Damascus to be considered a suburb (perhaps 75
kilometers) if the residents of the two capitals
did not speak different dialects of Arabic.
Damascus is 600 kilometers directly west from
Baghdad, and the Arabic in these two cities is
similar. From Baghdad to Tehran is another 500
kilometers.
Lebanon is a truly
"confessional state" where Shi'ites, Druze, Sunnis
and Christians (both Catholic and Greek Orthodox)
live in a state constitutionally guaranteeing
freedom of religion and an agreement that all of
these religious groups share in political power.
But underlying these constitutional guarantees is
intense religious animosity. It is certain that
the Muslims have not forgotten that some of the
Christian groups joined with the Israelis to fight
the Palestinian interlopers. None of the above
groups favors the refugee Palestinians (about
400,000).
Syria has a secular government,
in fact the only remaining Ba'athist state, and is
partnered with Iran, the only real Islamic state
in the world. Despite this seeming religious
antipathy, the two countries have very cordial
relations. They both use Hezbollah in an attempt
to control Lebanon and fight the "little Satan" -
Israel. Hezbollah is Shi'ite, like Iran, but not
like Syria, which is Sunni.
Prior to the
US invasion of Iraq the latter was an enemy of
Iran - they fought an almost decade-long war in
the 1980s, with more than a million dead. Iraq was
the only other secular Ba'athist state in the
world besides Syria. All three of these countries
considered the United States the "Big" Satan and
Israel the "Little" Satan.
Iraq may be
(with God's help) on the way to becoming an
independent democracy run by its Shi'ite majority.
There is an insurgency supported by, among others,
Syria. The insurgency is primarily Sunni. Iran,
with its Shi'ite clerical control, may not be
supporting the insurgency, but it does make an
effort to oppose it. Iran may in fact have
protected Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian
"representing" al-Qaeda in Iraq.
After the
assassination of former prime minister Rafik
Hariri on Valentine's Day, the Lebanese people,
with the help of an international coalition of the
"willing", including Arabs and even Russia, backed
by a unanimous United Nations Security Council
resolution (1559), have asked Syria to leave and
return liberty to this very fractured country.
Hezbollah, headed by cleric Sheikh Hasan
Nasrullah, led the largest demonstration in
Lebanon's history into the center of Beirut
(perhaps half a million Shi'ites) supporting the
secular government of Syria and against Lebanese
liberty. And it was peaceful - no guns were shown.
The Shi'ites entering and taking control of the
"center" of Beirut is significant - they own
southern Beirut. A similar peaceful demonstration
of hundreds of thousands of pro-Syrian opposition
was held one week later - larger than the
Hezbollah demonstration. It is estimated that
Shi'ites are 40-50% of the Lebanese population.
Does this suggest that Nasrullah will seek
control of Lebanon electorally? The sheikh in his
speech noted repeatedly how the US and Israel had
caused the current problems between Lebanon and
Syria. In fact the sheikh claimed that the Israeli
Mossad assassinated Hariri, and then (on al-Manar
TV) that "Lebanon is not like Somalia, Lebanon is
not Ukraine. Lebanon is not Georgia. [Your] naval
fleets have come in the past, and were defeated,
and if they come again, they will be defeated
again ... 'To Syria we say: Long live Assad's
Syria [repeated five times]! The den of the lion
[Bashar Assad] in Damascus will remain a den'."
Does Hezbollah fear the "Cedar
Revolution"? Does liberty antagonize the cleric,
another sheikh? Or will Nasrullah, whose party has
the most seats in the Lebanese parliament, put
himself forward in the mid-May elections and
become Speaker of the House?
The Assad
dynasty may have stumbled into a fatal diplomatic
vortex leading to the implosion of the last
Ba'athist regime in the world.
Aside from
the nationalist problem, Lebanon employs hundred
of thousands of Syrians for menial jobs that
Lebanese do not want to do. Will Bashar lose his
father Hafez Assad's dynasty? The Assads are part
of the Alawite tribe, which may choose to
sacrifice Bashar of the sake of the tribe. What
Tom Friedman once called the "Hama rules" may
apply to Bashar. Attempting the Hama rules in
Lebanon (aside from the question of Bashar's
staying power) would likely open Syria up for an
immediate US intervention - being in the
neighborhood is an advantage.
Syria
certainly has not forgotten America's previous
interventions: president Dwight David Eisenhower
prevented Syria from absorbing Lebanon in the
1950s. President Ronald Reagan intervened during
the Lebanese civil war and, like the wolf in the
Irish tale, left his tail behind. But this time
Lebanon will not be the target, Syria will.
(Nasrullah has recently stated that he hoped the
US would invade Lebanon - he would teach the wolf
another lesson.)
The term "Hama rules"
comes from the city where Assad pere killed
thousand of his own citizens to preserve his
dynasty. Some in Syria consider giving up Lebanon
as the equivalent of the original loss in the
Treaty of Versailles. An earlier example of Hama
rules was during the Lebanese civil war: Kamal
Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze in 1977, was
murdered, then Maronite leader Bashir Gemayel in
1982, and in 1990 another Christian leader, Danny
Chamoun, son of Lebanese president Camille
Chamoun, was murdered along with his wife and
children; and then the Shi'ite leader, Imam Musa
al-Sadr, disappeared in 1978 while on a visit to
Muammar Gaddafi in Libya - on whose orders is
still a matter of dispute. (Ayatollah Musa al-Sadr
is apparently unrelated to the young Iraqi Shi'ite
leader Muqtada al-Sadr.) Thus the leadership of
all three of the indigenous Lebanese populations
were beheaded. This was the beginning of Hezbollah
and its Islamic terrorism, a perhaps unintended
result.
Iran has been the main supporter
of the Shi'ite Hezbollah in collaboration with
Syria. Both have also supported the insurgents in
Iraq. Despite the Iranians' support of Bashar,
they will almost certainly withdraw from this
fray, leaving him hanging in the wind. What impact
will that have on the Zarqawi insurgency? (The
Zarqawi insurgency is only one aspect of a
four-faceted insurgency - to be discussed at
another time.)
On July 30, 1980, a
Lebanese military officer made a prayer as
follows: "We ask Almighty God to divide Syria into
hundreds of pieces so that the world at large may
rest in peace." Twenty-five years later, it
appears that officer's prayer may yet become true.
In the year 2000 a newspaper opposed to
prime minister Hariri wrote a column suggesting
that Syria ought to leave Lebanon. Another
newspaper, al-Mustaqbal, owned by Hariri, wrote as
follows: "Raising the issue of Syria's stay in
Lebanon serves no purpose to Lebanese national
interests or to Arab interests. Because at this
time everyone should be standing at Syria's side
as it approaches the negotiations, not only Syria
but also for all Arab interests."
This was
three months before the death of Assad
pere. For this column Hariri was a hero in
Syria. Four years later, while Hariri was still
prime minister (he resigned in October 2004), he
was reputed to have a political conflict with
General Rustum Ghazeleh, Syrian chief of
intelligence. He told associates that his "life
may be almost over". His reputation in Syria had
changed.
Hariri was known as a patriot who
resigned in October as a result of Syria using its
power to change the constitution of Lebanon. The
change allowed Emile Lahoud to be reappointed
president of Lebanon after his term was over and
he was constitutionally banned from reappointment
(note his French name). Lahoud was a supporter of
Syrian intervention in Lebanon. (This was the
second time Syria required a change in the
Lebanese constitution for Lahoud. Lahoud was an
admiral and then general when Syria decided to
appoint him president. However, there was a
two-year waiting period to enter "civilian" public
life. So the constitution was changed and Lahoud
was appointed president. The opposition to the
Syrians are reportedly planning to re-change the
constitution to shorten Lahoud's term.) That was
the basis of Hariri's resignation.
In
addition, Hariri, a billionaire from business
dealings in Saudi Arabia, used some of his money
to reconstruct Lebanon from the destruction of its
long civil war. He was attempting to rebuild what
was once known as the Paris of the Middle East.
(Hariri made money on the reconstruction.) Hariri
and Walid Jumblatt, who lives in the mountain
stronghold of Chouf, is a Druze, a secretive
religion related to Islam. He and Hariri in
combination with other anti-Syrian political
groups including the Maronite Christians were
planning to form a new, more potent parliamentary
opposition to the Syrian puppet regime. (The
French connection stems from the early 20th
century when France owned this neighborhood and
separated Lebanon from Greater Syria to create a
Christian enclave.)
The Syrian-installed
puppet government headed by Omar Karami submitted
its resignation on February 28 to the
extra-constitutional President Emile Lahoud, whose
term has constitutionally expired. Karami stated
that "the government does not become an obstacle
to the good of the country". This may be the first
time in recent Arab history that a government was
overthrown peacefully by popular demand. Tens of
thousands of Lebanese celebrated in the streets at
Karami's resignation.
The assassination of
Hariri along with 16 of his bodyguards and
innocent civilians in February has created a
problem for Assad fils. We, of course, do
not know if he was involved in the murder. While
one of my governments claims to have "solid"
evidence of his involvement and the other confirms
it, both have been known to shade the truth. That
does not mean Bashar is innocent. Bashar in his
defining speech compared the murder of Hariri to
the "murder" of Yasser Arafat, blaming both on the
Mossad.
Either he knew and approved of his
people assassinating Hariri or they operated
without his knowledge. In the first case, if there
were an honest government he would be tried for
conspiracy to murder; in the latter case he needs
to resign. His position may be compared to that of
Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier of the Haitian
French-speaking dynasty.
Assad fils
has three problems: a Lebanese problem, an Iraqi
problem with his support of the insurgents, and an
Israeli problem with his support of Hezbollah,
Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Bashar's speech was very
popular with the Damascus street. But one suspects
the street's strategic solution to all three
problems is "Syria First". Will Bashar accept that
or play King Canute, trying to stop the waves from
the US, France, Israel and the international
community?
The Lebanese
problem
If the "Cedar Revolution" succeeds,
what will happen to Lebanon? Despite the Hezbollah
support, Syria is likely to withdraw. Bashar's
speech to the Syrian parliament (an unusual event
in itself) stated that the Syrians would withdraw
to "the borders of Lebanon and Syria". Arab and
English speakers (using translations) spent more
that a day trying to determine what "borders"
meant. Would Assad withdraw from the
internationally recognized border or create a new
border in the Bekaa Valley? In that speech Bashar
referred to 1982, when Israeli troops invaded
Lebanon, entered the Bekaa Valley and threatened
Damascus. Israel demanded and got an international
radar system in Sinai and demanded one if it ever
withdraws from the Syrian Golan Heights; will
Syria demand one in the Bekaa Valley?
Civil war in Lebanon is a real
possibility. The rules in that fractured country
are that the president is a Maronite Christian,
the prime minister a Sunni, the Speaker of the
parliament is a Shi'ite and the Deputy Speaker a
Druze. The president chooses the prime minister,
who must be approved by the parliament. Given
Hariri's death and Karami's resignation, according
to Joseph Samaha, editor in chief of al-Safir
newspaper, "there are few people left" who
qualify. Does that explain why Karami has been
reappointed acting prime minister by Lahoud? Can
he create a government with the approval of
parliament? US President George W Bush has
established a date for Syria's withdrawal, the
date of the election - this May . Who elected
George as the new Caesar?
How will the
Lebanese "confessional" political system react to
Syria's withdrawal? If a civil war breaks out, the
winners are likely to be the Shi'ites and
Hezbollah. Will an independent Lebanon with its
own army replace Hezbollah guarding the border
between Israel and Lebanon? What effect would that
have on its major backer, Iran, and on the
Shi'ite-majority government in Iraq? How will the
Sunni minority in Lebanon and its allies Sunni
Saudi Arabia and Jordan react? King Abdullah II of
Jordan has already expressed his concern that the
appearance of the Shi'ite crescent stretching from
Iran to Lebanon will tilt the balance of power in
the region and is likely to threaten the Gulf
countries which have a Shi'ite population,
including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is clear
that Nasrullah's ultimate objective is a Lebanon
modeled after the Iranian theocracy. Attempting
that would create a civil war, but Nasrullah is a
very clever man and there are many ways to skin
the cat.
How will the US react? When the
United Nations Security Council passed Resolution
1559 it ordered its special envoy, Terje Roed
Larson, to press not only for Syrian withdrawal,
but also Hezbollah's disarmament. Is it likely
that Nasrullah will follow the UN? Larson met with
the Syrians on March 12 in Aleppo. In ancient
times, Aleppo was a Jewish city where St Paul
conflicted with them. It is also where the oldest
Torah scroll (12th century) was held, and
partially burned when the Jews escaped in 1948;
the remainder is in the Hebrew University Library
in Jerusalem.
The Iraqi
problem
Syria, given the pressures by the
US and now the rest of the international
community, may shore up its porous border and
disallow the Iraqi insurgents to leak through.
This has already begun; in January Syria welcomed
Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi for an official
visit, arrested 15 clerics advocating jihad
against the US troops in Iraq, and then allowed
Iraqi citizens to vote in Syria during the January
30 election. Iraq is not obsessed with Israel and
may even elect the first non-Arab head of state in
the Arab world, Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani. (In
the Bekaa Valley Iran trains its elite
Revolutionary Guards. It has placed thousands of
missiles trained to Israel. Will Iran withdraw?)
The Israeli problem
Israel has
made peaceful arrangements with Egypt, Jordan and
Palestine; the only party left from the 1967 war
that remains technically at war is Syria. In
addition, Israel has had long-term problems with
Syria regarding its support of Hamas and Islamic
Jihad as well as Hezbollah, although the latter
has with few exceptions refrained from direct
involvement with Israel since Israel withdrew from
the southern Lebanon in May 2000. Hezbollah's
justification for its armed status is Israel.
Given Mahmoud Abbas' beginning to control the
Palestinian armed forces with the Hudna, will
Hezbollah join? What if Hezbollah takes control of
Lebanon? It is the largest political organization
in Lebanon and it is armed. It has already accused
the anti-Syrian opposition of collaborating with
the Israelis. If the anti-Syrian opposition
control a new government, can they negotiate with
Israel? Not likely. Israel signed a peace treaty
with Lebanon in 1983 during the civil war and
Israeli occupation; Syria canceled it.
After a suicide bombing in August 2003,
Israel blamed Syria and bombed an evacuated
training center in the latter country. That was
clearly a warning. More recently, both the
Israelis and the Palestinian leadership condemned
the suicide bombing by a West Bank youth in late
February and blamed the Syrian branch of Islamic
Jihad. That group stated its responsibility, while
the Palestinian branch denied any involvement.
Israel as a result of its ongoing developing
relationship with Abbas chose not to react against
the Palestinians.
The question is, why did
Israel not bomb Syria? The Israeli political
leadership (with possible assistance of the US)
realized that bombing Syria during Assad
fils's conflict with the international
community would relieve him of his problems and
place the blame on Israel. But however the
Lebanese-Syrian problem is resolved at some point,
if incidents like these occur again, Israel will
react. Will the "Syria first" policy allow Assad
fils to reject the Hamas and Islamic Jihad
offices in Damascus? If that were to occur, would
that create an atmosphere for Israel and Syria to
begin, again, a Syrian track in the peace process?
There seems more involved than US
imperialism and Israeli Zionism.
Rabbi Moshe Reiss is a graduate
of Oxford University and was assistant rabbi at
Yale University. He was the first rabbi invited to
teach in the Department of Theology at the
Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium (founded
1425), and has lectured in various countries. He
has posted three books on his website MosheReiss.org on
Judaism, Christianity and Islam. His book on
Judaism is being published by sections in the
Jewish Bible Quarterly. He now lives in
Israel.
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