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Why Syria will not go
quietly
By Brian Maher
Last month's assassination of former
Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut and
its political fallout have proved portentous
developments for Syria, to say the least. Even if
Damascus is innocent of any involvement or if
rogue elements in one of its 14 intelligence
agencies carried out the murder, the effect
remains unchanged. It has set in motion widespread
civil opposition to the Syrian presence in Lebanon
and renewed calls from the international community
for a complete Syrian withdrawal from its
neighbor.
Not only the United States but
also the likes of France, Russia, Egypt and Saudi
Arabia have publicly called on Syria to quit
Lebanon. With so many forces falling into
alignment against Damascus, the increasingly
isolated regime of President Bashar Assad
confronts a shrinking universe of options with
which to maintain its strategic leverage in the
region. In the space of a few weeks, Assad has
stepped back from an intransigent refusal to
consider withdrawing from Lebanon to a
conciliatory position promising the removal of
Syrian troops and intelligence forces within "a
few months". Unfolding events in Lebanon affect
not only Syria, but have the potential to alter
the balance of power in the region.
Implications of a Syrian
withdrawal
A full withdrawal from Lebanon
in the face of Western pressure would represent a
serious humiliation for the ossified Ba'athist
regime, which may not be able to survive such a
display of perceived weakness. Surrounded by
hostile and semi-hostile states, Lebanon stands
alone as part of a Syrian sphere of influence. In
important respects, Lebanon is the mortar holding
together the bricks of a weak regime. Over the
course of three decades, Syria has transformed
Lebanon into a vassal state that lacks any true
independence - Syria doesn't even recognize
Lebanese passports or maintain an embassy in
Beirut. The Syrian Ba'athists have long considered
Lebanon an integral part of their concept of Bilad
al-Sham, or "Greater Syria", a territorial
abstraction that also lays claim to Israel, Jordan
and parts of Turkey. It is a construct that
carries substantial ideological currency and
losing its position in Lebanon would only serve to
bring Damascus' regional ambitions to an
ignominious end. This explains its flurry of
diplomatic activity to help place a pan-Arab
patina on any withdrawal agreement.
In addition, Syria may face harsh economic
realities if forced to quit Lebanon. Perhaps 20% or more
of the Syrian economy is based on Lebanese sources
of revenue. Up to a million Syrians work in Lebanon,
where they earn respectable wages, much of which
is remitted to Syria. Commissions on business
deals and extensive corruption also benefit the
well-heeled in Syria. Syrian interests control
much of the country's resources and Syrian
domination of the robust Bekaa Valley drug trade
also provides significant streams of revenue.
Losing its economic suzerainty over Lebanon could
cripple an already teetering Syrian economy.
Most important, however, a pliant
Lebanon provides Syria strategic depth along its
western frontier, a crucial buffer Damascus has
relied on to check its Israeli adversary. Quite
simply, Lebanon is Damascus' strongest negotiating
card with Israel. Losing Lebanon, in the full
sense of the word, would represent a significant
attenuation of Syria's deterrent posture with
Israel - and, if that is lost, a diminution of
leverage over the Palestinian issue may not be far
behind.
Damascus will not relinquish that
easily, and removing 14,000 troops from Lebanon is
not especially important from a strategic
standpoint. Damascus is not without arrows in its
quiver. It has extended its tentacles deeply into
Lebanese society, effectively controlling its
political, economic and military/intelligence
apparatus. Its intelligence services, which are
deeply entrenched within Lebanon, are of far
greater importance. Their cheek-by-jowl
relationship with Lebanese intelligence and
thousands of local informants ensure that a pro
forma closing of their main office will not
end Syrian influence. They still wield the ability
to shape political developments and destabilize
Lebanon by unleashing massive civil strife.
The role of Hezbollah
In addition, Damascus still maintains great
influence over Hezbollah, which one former senior US
Federal Bureau of Investigation official described as
"the best light infantry in the world".
Syrian patronage of Hezbollah is well known and its
logic rather simple. Its 25,000-man force, armed
with 10,000 rockets and missiles, is a strategic
asset that Syria has used as leverage in its
conflict with Israel, especially with respect to
the Golan Heights. Damascus has jealously guarded
Hezbollah's position in Lebanon and disarmed all
of its rivals. In the face of a Syrian withdrawal,
Hezbollah and other Lebanese concerns that have
benefited from Syrian patronage may very well
resort to violence to protect their interests.
Hezbollah may choose to foment strife, conveying
the all too clear message that there will be no
stability in Lebanon without Syria's steadying
hand. Recent bombings in Christian suburbs of
Beirut may provide a foretaste of what lies ahead.
This could potentially lead to widespread
unrest, even civil war, which would have major
ramifications in Israel, Syria and beyond. Some
Israeli officials believe that Hezbollah has
recently reinvigorated attempts to subcontract
attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant groups.
A Lebanese civil war may in fact redound to
Hezbollah's favor, as a Syrian withdrawal would
leave Hezbollah the most powerful force in Lebanon
- more powerful than the Lebanese army. A
Hezbollah victory in such a conflict would fulfill
Shi'ite aspirations of controlling the country and
create nightmares in neighboring countries with
potentially restive Shi'ite populations, Saudi
Arabia not least among them. Such a development
would create a Shi'ite axis stretching from Iran,
through Iraq to Lebanon, delighting Tehran.
For these reasons, Israel, especially, may
have reservations about a full Syrian withdrawal
from Lebanon and would want the Lebanese army to
assume quick control of the southern parts of the
country. Jerusalem is divided between those who
prefer the overall stability that Hezbollah's
Syrian overlords can provide and those who believe
a Syrian withdrawal will undermine Hezbollah's
power fundamentally. The known devil may be
preferable to the unknown one, as far as some in
Jerusalem are concerned. Syrian patronage of
Hezbollah has allowed Damascus to call the
proverbial shots - Syria unleashed Hezbollah when
it suited its interests, like in Shebaa Farms, and
reined it in when it feared provoking Israel. This
was especially the case with the elder Assad, who
exercised far greater control over Hezbollah. As
such, Damascus provided Israel a calling card if
Hezbollah attacked Israeli interests and Damascus
realized that it would be held to account for the
group's activities. "We have an address," many
Israeli policymakers would warn. With that
moderating influence removed, will Hezbollah pull
off its proverbial gloves and try to draw Israel
into a conflict?
Hezbollah's relative
popularity in Lebanon stems from its defiant
opposition to the Israeli occupation. By provoking
Israel into a conflict, it may hope to play its
strongest card and rally popular support at the
expense of its political opposition. Without a
common Israeli enemy, Hezbollah's appeal as a
purely political entity diminishes. Jerusalem has
remained decidedly hushed so far, partly at
Washington's behest, so as not to provide
rhetorical ammunition to Damascus or Hezbollah.
However, even if Syria withdraws fully from
Lebanon and its influence wanes, the country still
may not be freed from foreign influence.
Iran attempts to fill the
vacuum
Power, like nature, abhors a vacuum.
With its Syrian ally in disarray, Tehran will
attempt to fill the void left behind by Syria's
putative departure from Lebanon. According to some
sources, Iran has been fortifying Hezbollah bases
in the face of a Syrian troop withdrawal in an
attempt to enhance its strategic position. Iran
has been using Revolutionary Guard units to
fortify important positions Syria has promised to
vacate, such as early warning stations. Iran
maintains about 1,000 Revolutionary Guards in
Lebanon, serving as ideological and military
advisors to Hezbollah. Tehran is also reportedly
increasing arms shipments to Hezbollah, as well as
unmanned aerial vehicles, one of which unnerved
the Israeli air force by recently penetrating
Israeli airspace undetected. It is also using the
organization to create a larger pro-Iranian
Shi'ite force in Lebanon. Tehran thus wields the
ability to ignite a larger Middle Eastern
conflict.
According to a spokesman for the
Druze opposition, "Iran sees the mounting pressure
on its partner Syria to withdraw and is using it
as an opportunity to become the next power broker
in Lebanon." By fortifying its Hezbollah proxy in
Lebanon, Tehran sends a resounding signal that
Israel cannot disregard Iranian interests without
suffering harsh consequences. More pointedly, it
serves as a visible and powerful deterrent against
any attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Syrian
President Assad recently appointed Assaf Chawkat,
a family member, to the state's head intelligence
post. Chawkat, who has close ties to Hezbollah,
has long overseen relations between the
organization and its Iranian sponsor. Chawkat has
most likely assured Tehran that Hezbollah will not
be weakened by a Syrian withdrawal and that
Damascus will not restrain it if Israel or the US
attacks Tehran's nuclear facilities. Hezbollah
will remain a potent force that Tehran will
control for the foreseeable future.
Conclusion
Damascus is
notoriously adept at finding windows of
opportunity to outmaneuver opponents. It will
temporize and make tactical concessions in the
short run in the hope that it will reassert its
influence when the glare of scrutiny is removed.
It will hope to outlast Washington and its allies,
attempting to exploit fissures in their positions.
It will not surrender control of Lebanon quietly.
In the meantime, Washington and Jerusalem hope
that the forces being unleashed in Lebanon will
lead to a peaceful, democratic society that won't
spawn another generation of militants.
Washington's shifting stance on Hezbollah's future
in that country provides some insight into the
complexities of the situation. Tehran is also
keeping a close eye on developments in Lebanon,
ever wary of the threats to its own power in the
region. The world is currently riding a wild tiger
in the Middle East, marking a great watershed in
the history of the region - which way it turns
next is the big question.
Published
with permission of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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