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'Sausage-making' in
Iraq
By Ehsan Ahrari
The continued political impasse in Iraq is
increasingly being viewed by the four senior-most
Shi'ite clerics of Iraq - the Marjaiya - as a
symbolic defeat of their aspirations of seeing a
Shi'ite-dominated government take control in Iraq.
The Marjaiya has not run out of options yet. The
question now is how long is it going to wait
before attempting to break the impasse.
Right now, the buzz in Iraq is, who is
really responsible for the continued impasse?
Little progress has been made in forming a
government since elections on January 30, although
on Sunday delegates to the National Assembly chose
Hajim al-Hasani, a US-educated Sunni economist who
currently holds office as minister of industry, as
Speaker of parliament. The president and premier
still have to be chosen.
Of
course, partial blame for the delay is being placed on
the United States. The focus of that blame is
the Transitory Administrative Law (TAL), which the
US co-wrote with the Iraqis. The TAL sets the
rules for governing the elections and for installing
the new government. The Iraqi politicians
are especially critical of the measure that requires
a two-thirds vote by the National Assembly
to appoint a president. They point out that the
law fails to set a deadline for the appointment.
The US side, in its defense, points out that the
two-thirds requirement was meant to prevent any
single group from dominating the new government.
Regarding the avoidance of using the tool of
deadlines, the Americans point out that it was
largely a measure to avoid "micromanaging" the
process.
At the heart of the now
defunct US-instigated Coalition Provisional
Authority, which played a crucial role in writing the TAL,
is the notion of making a political compromise
for which US politics itself is often
criticized. The standard pejorative phrase to
describe the tedious and cumbersome process of
compromise is often referred to as the "making of
sausage" - dirty, nasty and unwieldy. For the
Iraqis - who do not have much background, appetite
or the required patience for compromise - the
impasse appears frustrating. For the Marjaiya,
that process is now beginning to appear as
threatening the very emergence of a
Shi'ite-dominated government.
The
fact that the Iraqis have not shown much of an
appetite for compromise is also surprising to
the Americans. One US diplomat expressed
surprise that there is not much "commingling"
between the various groups of Iraqis, as is done
among Western parliamentarians.
The
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which has a slight
majority, is grumbling that the two-thirds requirement
is keeping it from taking control of the
government. As one of its members observed, the UIA does
not need any coalitions, because "legally speaking,
we have enough votes, more than 50% of the
assembly seats". The UIA has 146 of the 275 seats
available in the National Assembly. The next-biggest bloc,
the Kurdistan Alliance, has 77 seats.
There is also a fear that, in the wake of
a continued impasse, there might ensue the
blame-game, the signs of which are already
emerging. The Sunni groups have not participated
in the elections, but are being wooed by the
Shi'ites. Ghazi al-Yawer, a Sunni and president
under the interim government, refused the
speakership, implying that he was too important to
be speaker of the new parliament. He is reported
to be seeking a vice presidency.
In
the continuing tug-and-pull, the fact that
the "Islamist factor" is on the rise is something
the US side should not be missing. For instance,
Hasani, even though he is regarded as an
"outsider" by most Sunni Arabs, is also an
Islamist, albeit a moderate one. Thus, the secular
Shi'ites view him with suspicion. Besides, no one
knows how well he will get along with the Shi'ite
Islamists, especially the hardliners. In addition,
hardline Sunni Arabs remain equally suspicious of
his credentials.
The continued impasse in
the making of a Shi'ite-dominated government is
also likely to negatively affect the prestige of
the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. There are
reports that the Muqtada al-Sadr faction of the
Shi'ite leadership is beginning to taunt the
ayatollah's now famous penchant for the "rule of
the majority", while the UIA continues to wait to
take charge of the new government. The Muqtada
faction is critical of Sistani's insistence for
including Sunnis in the government. As
sophisticated as that approach might have been for
gaining legitimacy for the Shi'ite-dominated
government, there is the threat that, in the wake
of the continued impasse, that very sense of
legitimacy, even among the followers of Sistani,
might be eroded. It should be added, however, that
at least for now, there is no urgent threat to
that legitimacy. However, the Marjaiya is
appearing frustrated and wary.
The Iraqi
insurgents remain oblivious to these developments.
They know that the emergence of a
Shi'ite-dominated government will be just another
step - indeed, a significant one - toward their
defeat. Thus, they continue their series of
attacks on the Iraqis and Americans. They also
know that, since the elections, the tide of chaos
that they were hoping to create has not
materialized.
As long as the Americans are
still in charge in Iraq, one is reminded of what
that great American "philosopher", Yogi Berra, once
observed, "It ain't over till it's over." The
making of sausage continues. If the UIA is not
able to succeed in creating a government within a
matter of two to three weeks, then all bets are
off about the very emergence of democracy in Iraq
any time soon. The Sunnis of Iraq will not be
terribly unhappy, since they will hope to extract
an even better bargain. They may not really care
whether such an expectation is realistic. Shi'ites
will be the biggest losers in the wake of a
continued impasse, leading to more violence.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an
Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent
strategic analyst. Please click here to visit
his website.
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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