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The men who would be Iran's
president
By Bill Samii
Iran's next president will play a key
role in shaping the country's domestic political
climate as well as its relationship with the rest
of the world. Will incumbent Hojatoleslam Mohammad
Khatami's successor be a conservative
isolationist? A conservative who favors some
liberalization of foreign policy while loosening
the social reins? Or will the next president be a
reformer eager to ease social restrictions and
accelerate Iranian involvement with the rest of
the world?
Registration of
prospective candidates for Iran's presidential
election is scheduled to begin on Tuesday and
continue for five days. The Interior Ministry will
then forward this information to the Guardians
Council, which will screen the applications until
May 24. Individuals whose candidacies are accepted
can campaign from May 27 until 24 hours before
election day on June 17.
An applicant's biggest initial
hurdle is the Guardians Council. It accepted just
four of the more than 200 applicants in 1997, and
in 2001 it accepted only 10 of 814 registrants.
According to Article 115 of the Iranian
constitution, a presidential candidate must be of
Iranian origin and have Iranian nationality, must
be a resourceful administrator, have a good
record, be trustworthy and pious, and believe in
the Islamic Republic's system and its fundamental
principles. A more controversial aspect of the
article on presidential qualifications is its
assertion that the president must be a
religious-political individual (rejal-i
mazhabi-siasi). This vague clause leads to
questions of whether or not the president should
be a clergyman and also leaves it unclear as to
whether or not a woman may serve as president.
The most controversial
candidate is arguably Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who has yet to confirm his
intention to run. The 70-year-old Rafsanjani was
born to a pistachio-farming family in the village
of Bahraman, and while studying in Qom he
developed a close relationship with Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, the leading of the Islamic
revolution in 1979 .
Rafsanjani has served in most of
the Islamic Republic's top jobs - he was the
parliamentary speaker and then the president
(1989-97). He currently chairs the Expediency
Council, which has powerful oversight authority
over legislation, and is deputy head of the
Assembly of Experts. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei reportedly opposes a new
Hashemi-Rafsanjani bid for the presidency.
Rafsanjani hinted in a recent interview with USA
Today that he could restore Iran-US relations,
but in interviews with Iranian media he has been
highly critical of the United States. In the
1980s, he advocated Iran's use of weapons of mass
destruction, although he has since modified his
comments on the issue and now says Iran has a
right to use nuclear energy peacefully. He defends
Iran's support for the Lebanese Hezbollah and
similar organizations, is hostile to Israel and
backs "martyrdom operations" (suicide bombings)
against the Israeli occupation of Palestinian
territories.
According to a more recent
report quoting an anonymous source close to
Rafsanjani, he has a plan for restoring relations
with the United States. He also is said to have
plans to support the Arab-Israeli peace plan
proposed by Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdallah bin
Abdul Aziz. Rafsanjani reportedly intends to
pursue Khatami's reforms, which encountered
opposition from entrenched conservative elements,
and he reportedly wants to eliminate the system of
vilayat-i faqih
(rule of the supreme
jurisprudent).
Furthermore,
Rafsanjani purportedly wants to cooperate
with the heretofore-shunned nationalist-religious
forces in an effort to counter "an internal coup
by some [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps]
generals, radical commanders in the intelligence
apparatus, and the religious seminary in Qom".
Rafsanjani allegedly was prompted to act
when he learned of a plan to destroy the centrist
Executives of Construction Party - which has
voiced support for his presidential bid - as well
as reformist leaders, and his extended family.
The reformers
There are two prospective
candidates backed by the reformist mainstream:
Hojatoleslam Mehdi Mahdavi-Karrubi and Mustafa
Moin. Karrubi was born in 1937 in Aligudarz,
Luristan province. He is currently a member of the
Expediency Council and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei. Karrubi was parliamentary speaker from
1990-92 and again from 2000-04. He also has headed
the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the
Martyr's Foundation.
Karrubi is a
founding member of the Militant Clerics Association and
is currently its secretary general. Discussing
the possibility of relations with the US,
he said: "We can enjoy relations with all
countries of the world, apart from Israel, of
course" (Aftab-i Yazd, April 21). He continued:
"With regards to America, I must say that the
American statesmen should stop their current ways
of interaction and approach vis-a-vis Iran. If
this happens, then I will not be opposed to
relations with America."
Moin was born in 1951 in
Najafabad, Isfahan province, and holds a doctorate
in medicine. He served as chancellor of Shiraz
University from 1981-82 and has served on the
Supreme Cultural Revolution Council since 1983.
Moin has served a number of terms in the
parliament (1982-84, 1988-89, and 1997-2001). He
was the culture and higher education minister from
1989-93 and served as higher education minister
from 1997-2003.
His candidacy is backed
by the Islamic Iran Participation Front
and the mujahideen of the Islamic
Revolution Organization. Asked about his stance on
relations with Washington, Moin said he advocates
dialogue with the world, and the US is a member
of that community (Sharq, March 10). "We consider
our national interests as the main basis, and we
can have interactions with America as equals,
and without any imposed preconditions, and
while safeguarding our national rights and power,"
Moin said. He added that the US must
apologize to Iran and then offer compensation for
"the moral, spiritual, and material damage they
have inflicted on us".
Other prospective
reformist candidates are Ebrahim Asqarzadeh,
Mustafa Kavakebian and Mohsen Mehralizadeh.
Asqarzadeh was one of the students who stormed the
US Embassy in 1979. Currently the head of the
Solidarity Party, Asqarzadeh announced on April 22
that he intends to be a candidate and expressed
concern about public apathy and silence, as well
as the appearance of "widespread militaristic
ideas", the Iranian Labor News Agency reported. "I
wouldn't have entered a situation that I clearly
know its outcome were I not alarmed by the
participation of military men and those in
jackboots [in the presidential race]," said
Asqarzadeh. "My motive for speaking to you and
announcing my candidacy does not stem from my
desire for power, but it is due to my concern for
the current dangerous situation." Asqarzadeh also
said boycotting elections is pointless.
Asqarzadeh's recent efforts to secure
elected office have been largely unsuccessful. The
Guardians Council rejected him as a candidate for
the 1998 Assembly of Experts election, the 2001
presidential election, and the 2004 parliamentary
elections. He was elected to the Tehran municipal
council in 1999, but the Guardians Council does
not vet candidates in council elections.
Democracy Party Secretary General Mostafa
Kavakebian has suggested that nepotism is rife in
the country's leadership and that senior posts
should be opened to outsiders such as himself. "I,
as a little man among the nation's children,
intend to propound the new discourse, meaning that
the elite have been kept outside the bounds of
power for 26 years and feel compassion for the
system [and] should find their place within the
ranks of those in power," Kavakebian said recently
(Mardom Salari, March 12). Kavakebian said the
country's senior leaders come from a group of just
2,700 people, and he noted that some officials
have seven or eight different positions.
Kavakebian said the government is inefficient
because many of those in positions of power get
there through "nepotism, cliques and
windfall-seeking". He said Iran has not fully
realized "all aspects of religious government and
Islamic values".
Prospective candidate
Mehralizadeh was born in Maragheh, East Azerbaijan
province, in 1956 and holds a doctorate in
economics. He was a founder of the Construction
Jihad and in 1979-81 served as a regional
commander in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.
Mehralizadeh served within the Ministry of Heavy
Industries from 1985-90, was managing director of
the Kish Island Development Organization from
1990-92, deputy for power plants at the Atomic
Energy Organization of Iran from 1993-95, and
served as managing director of the Shahed
Investment Company from 1995-97. Mehralizadeh was
governor general of Khorasan province from
1997-2001, and he has served as vice president and
head of the national Physical Education
Organization since 2001.
Mehralizadeh's
spokesman said on April 26 that the former has
decided to be a candidate and will begin
campaigning soon (Islamic Republic News Agency,
IRNA, April 26). He had said months earlier that
he would withdraw from the race only if the
reformists settle on a joint candidate (Farhang-i
Ashti, January 10).
The
conservatives
There are several prospective
conservative candidates, a development that
reflects age-based and ideological divisions among
this group.
The Coordination Council of
Islamic Revolution Forces named Ali Larijani as
its candidate in April, and parliamentarian
Mohammad Reza Bahonar said the coordination
council hopes to discourage Hashemi-Rafsanjani
from seeking the presidency (Sharq, April 28).
Larijani headed Islamic Republic of Iran
Broadcasting from 1994-2004 and also has served as
minister of Islamic culture and guidance and as an
official in the Islamic Revolution Guards
Ministry. He currently serves as the supreme
leader's representative to the Supreme National
Security Council. His father was a prominent
apolitical cleric, and his brothers are
politically active.
Larijani said on
March 31 that he believes the US wants to
reopen its embassy in Tehran and that Iran should
be careful, Fars News Agency reported. "America's
threats are serious, though its war-mongering
language is not real," he said in an earlier
speech (Iranian Student's News Agency, ISNA, March
26). "They want to weaken the Iranian government
and wish to influence the will of the nation and
our officials, so that we ourselves would satisfy
their needs." In a March 9 speech in Kashan,
Larijani argued that "making any concession on
nuclear technology is tantamount to the biggest
treason," Fars News Agency reported. He previously
dismissed an Iran-EU agreement on the suspension
of uranium enrichment as amounting to the exchange
of a "pearl" for a "bonbon".
Many
of the more traditional conservatives back Ali
Akbar Velayati, who was born in Tehran in 1945.
Velayati is a physician who was foreign minister
from 1981-97 and currently serves as an adviser to
the Supreme Leader. He also is a member of the
Expediency Council. Velayati has pledged to
withdraw from the race if Rafsanjani enters the
field.
In 1997, a
German court found Velayati, Khamenei,
Rafsanjani and Intelligence and Security
Minister Ali-Akbar Fallahian guilty for their
roles in the 1992 assassinations of Iranian
dissidents in Germany. Referring to that case - as
well as to the 1991 assassination of former prime
minister Shahpour Bakhtiar - in a 2005 interview,
Velayati blamed unnamed parties who were trying to
damage Iran-Europe relations (Etemad, May 1). With
respect to current Tehran-London relations, he
said, "Britain's role in the European Union is
mainly as America's agent."
Younger
conservatives are divided among their preferred
potential candidates: Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad,
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Mohsen Rezai.
Ahmadi-Nejad became mayor of Tehran in
April 2003. He is widely regarded as "unassuming
and simple", as well as straight-talking -
perceptions that have made him popular (Sharq,
June 8, 2004). Ahmadi-Nejad's political activism
commenced shortly after Iran's 1979 revolution,
with the Office for Strengthening Unity. He served
as governor general of Ardabil province during the
1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. Ahmadi-Nejad is now a
member of the conservative Association of
Engineers and a member of the central council of
the Society of the Devotees of the Islamic
Revolution. He said on April 28 that he will his
announce his decision on his candidacy on
registration day, IRNA reported.
The
43-year-old Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf headed the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air force
until June 2000, when he was selected to be chief
of the national police force. Qalibaf is one of
the 24 IRGC commanders who, in July 1999, sent a
letter to President Mohammad Khatami warning that
if he did not act to quell student unrest, they
would not stand by idly and would take matters
into their own hands. Under his command, the
previously unpopular police force improved its
reputation by implementing the 110 rapid-reaction
system, which made the force operate more
efficiently; he also has made progress in
eliminating the influence of political factions in
the police. Qalibaf resigned from the police
leadership in April.
In a March 12 speech,
Qalibaf identified three areas on which he would
focus: the economy, foreign affairs and "social
capital". Referring to the economy, he said, "The
people's buying power has not seen suitable
growth; we have even seen stagnation in certain
areas." Turning to foreign affairs, he said,
"Given Iran's outstanding geopolitical weight and
the role which the country can play at the
regional and global level, we have not properly
tapped these capacities." And regarding the issue
of "social capital", Qalibaf said, "In the area of
protecting our social capital, we face challenges
which make us lose our productive role in the
fields of science, politics, economy, and wealth
as well as our social identity."
Born in
1954 in Masjid-i Suleiman, Mohsen Rezai headed the
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps from 1981-97, and
now serves as secretary of the Expediency Council.
He has promoted himself as an independent
conservative candidate. "I consider myself a new
rightist and even more rightist than many
colleagues," he said (IRNA, March 26). He has
dismissed concern about his military background,
suggesting that his critics are prejudiced or
ignorant (ISNA, April 13). "My political ideas are
rooted in my deep belief in democracy, and I left
the military when I decided to take part in
political activities," he said.
During the
campaign, Rezai has been subdued on foreign-policy
issues, but he has expressed concern about US
regional ambitions since September 11, 2001. He
also supports Iranian diplomatic efforts on the
nuclear issue but has expressed concern that Iran
is conceding too much to Europe. Rezai said
Iranian diplomacy during President Khatami's
second term (which started in 2001) has been
marked by submissive diplomacy, missed
opportunities, and unilateral concessions in
exchange for minimal financial returns (Entekhab,
April 27, 2003). However, Rezai has represented
Iran in track-two diplomatic meetings in Cyprus.
Seyyed Reza Zavarei announced on December
12 that he would stand as an independent in the
2005 race, ISNA reported. A conservative, the
67-year-old Zavarei ran for president in 1997. He
has served as a lawyer on the Guardians Council,
served in the Interior Ministry, served two terms
in the legislature, and headed the deeds
registration organization. Zavarei gave as reasons
for his decision to run "God's will", the
"country's conditions", and the need to resolve
society's problems. If elected, according to
Zavarei, his cabinet will not be chosen on
factional grounds. Honesty and competence will be
the determining factors, he has vowed. Zavarei
said Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did not rule out
relations with the United States and that Iran is
not hostile to the American people but added, "We
cannot have relations with America because their
leaders have made the world hate America" (Mardom
Salari, January 25). He continued, "The problem is
that they want to rule the world. Under such
conditions we will not be blackmailed."
Two women have expressed interest in bids
for the presidency. Zanjan parliamentary
representative Rafat Bayat declared in March that
she wants to be an independent presidential
candidate. Bayat expressed confidence that the
Guardians Council will approve a female candidate
once a woman with the necessary managerial and
executive qualities comes forward. Bayat decried
the impact of factionalism on the political
process and said student groups and independent
figures urged her to run. Islamic Revolution's
Women Society Secretary General Azam Taleqani
announced on April 30 that she is considering
entering the presidential race, IRNA reported. Her
previous attempt to run for president was cut
short when the Guardians Council rejected her
candidacy.
Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani, a
former vice president and five-term legislator who
was born in Semnan in 1948, is secretary of the
Supreme National Security Council and also serves
on the Expediency Council. His position on the
security council has given him a prominent role in
Iran's nuclear negotiations with other countries.
A conservative figure and member of the Tehran
Militant Clergy Association, he is identified with
Hashemi-Rafsanjani and does not appear to have an
independent political base. Some observers see
Rohani, who has been labeled a pragmatic
conservative, as the choice of the moderate right.
He has indicated little interest in running for
the presidency, however.
The Guardians
Council's strategy on approving candidates remains
a mystery. In some cases, it has chosen to limit
public choice: In February 2004, it disqualified
some 44% of prospective parliamentary candidates;
in the 2001 presidential election, however, it
allowed many candidates in an effort to encourage
voter participation. (This also served to dilute
the reformist vote and reduce the eventual
victor's mandate.)
There is also a
possibility that if Rafsanjani does enter
the race, no candidate will secure the required
majority of the vote. This would require a second
round of voting.
Copyright (c) 2005,
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036 |
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