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A rough week for
Iraq
By Michael A Weinstein
Events in Iraq over the weekend and into
the new week reveal a heightened uncertainty about
the future of that country. The nearly complete
formation of the interim government, the
re-emergence of young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr into
public opposition to the provisional government,
the pronounced spike in the violence of the
insurgency, and the capture of an aide to
insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi point in
different directions - some to improved prospects
for the stabilization of the provisional
government, but most to the possibility that it
will fail.
Iraq gets a
government
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim
Jaafari's cabinet met for the first time on May 5,
with seven vacancies remaining to be filled,
including the Oil and Defense ministries. The
Defense Ministry was to go to a Sunni in order to
win support away from the insurgency, but the
Shi'ite-led United Iraqi Alliance had rejected
candidates associated with the former Ba'athist
regime. On Sunday, the deadlock over the Defense
Ministry was broken with the nomination of a Sunni
ex-general - Saadoun al-Dulaimi - who had defected
from the Ba'athist regime.
The new
government comes into power riven by factions and
- despite the concession of the Defense Ministry -
without significant support among the Sunni
minority, which lacks parliamentary
representation. Saleh Mutlak, an official of the
National Dialogue Council, which negotiated for
the Sunni community with Jaafari, concluded that
the provisional government will not satisfy Sunni
interests and opinion.
An indication of
the distance between the Sunni and Shi'ite
communities is provided by the refusal of Sunni
politician Hashim Shibli to accept the post of
Human Rights minister on the grounds that his
National Democratic Party is non-sectarian and
that he was not prepared to represent the Sunni
community.
Washington will be pleased that
a provisional government is in place - and that
achievement will provide some momentum to the
constitutional process - but the legitimacy of
that government, particularly for the Sunni
community, is questionable.
Muqtada
re-emerges
A continuation and possible
intensification of the interim government's crisis
of legitimacy was signaled when 3,000 backers of
dissident Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr clashed
with government security forces after they had
heard a message from their leader threatening to
restart armed resistance if the provisional
government did not produce "tangible results",
warning: "We have laid down our weapons but we
still exist, and our fingers are still on the
trigger."
Since he backed down from armed
rebellion in 2004, Muqtada has stayed on the
sidelines, refusing to be directly represented in
the provisional government, but allowing some of
his supporters to play a role in it, while he has
maintained his movement. Muqtada's challenge to
the provisional government adds another strain on
it and opens the possibility - now still remote -
of an insurgency within the Shi'ite community.
The insurgency gets uglier
As
the interim government moved haltingly toward its
completion, the Sunni-dominated insurgency in
central and western Iraq intensified, reaching
levels of violence that had not been recorded
since January 30 elections for the provisional
parliament. In the 10 days before May 9, 300
people, including eight US troops, were killed by
suicide bombers, car bombs and improvised roadside
explosives.
The spike in insurgent
activity, which was mainly directed at recruiting
centers for Iraqi security forces and at US
convoys, put to rout hopes that the insurgency had
been contained. Coincident with the rise in
opposition violence, the US military launched a
mission to root out the insurgents, deploying
1,000 troops, supported by aircraft, into Anbar
province. They were reportedly acting on
information from captured al-Zarqawi aide Amar
al-Zubaydi.
In an escalation of the
conflict, US forces engaged in a pitched battle
with insurgents in the town of Ubaydi, in which US
helicopter gunships reportedly fired rockets and
machine guns into buildings in the town. US
military sources reported support for the
insurgents among the civilian population, which
warned them of the US presence.
The spike
in the insurgency and the US operation in Anbar
province show the failure of US forces and the
Iraqi provisional authorities to provide security
in the country with Iraqi forces. Significant
portions of the Sunni community remain
disaffected.
Capture of
al-Zubaydi
The capture and detention of
al-Zubaydi on May 5 was hailed by Washington as a
victory for the US-led coalition. A reputed top
leader of al-Zarqawi's Islamic revolutionary group
al-Qaeda in Iraq, al-Zubaydi was thought to have
prepared car bombs for the group, planned the
bombings and, most importantly, facilitated the
entry of foreign fighters into Iraq from Syria and
Jordan.
Al-Zubaydi's removal from the
scene is a plus for the coalition and Iraq's
interim government - especially if he provides
information on the operations of al-Qaeda in Iraq
- yet it also revealed more starkly the lack of
border security, highlighting the ease with which
foreign fighters come and go almost at will, and
the networks in Sunni-dominated areas that have
allowed al-Zarqawi to evade capture.
Bottom line
The mixed signals
coming from recent events in Iraq point to greater
momentum for the insurgents and less for the
provisional government and its Washington backers,
increasing the probability of deepening
instability and a continuation of the legitimation
crisis.
Published with permission of
the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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