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Michel Aoun comes home to
roost
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Michel Aoun's return to Lebanon
on May 7, after 15 years of exile, is yet to shake
the political landscape of Lebanon. To some, it is
a great victory, to others, a humiliation and a
bitter reminder of civil war memories that many
people have been working hard to forget.
Aoun returned to Lebanon on the offensive,
hateful of everyone and everything that kept him
in exile for so long, promising destruction of the
existing order and sweet revenge. The Beirut he
entered last week was very different from the war
torn one he left behind in 1990. That Beirut did
not have a Rafik Harrri hallmark on it. Yet, all
the actors of Beirut 1990 are still there.
Former president Amin
Gemayel, who appointed Aoun prime minister in 1988,
upsetting tradition in Lebanon because Aoun was a
Maronite, is still there. Patriarch Man Nasrallah
Boutros Sfeir, who worked for Aoun's downfall, is
also still in religious office. Ex-prime minister
Salim al-Hoss, who led a rivaling cabinet in
1989-1990, is there, and so is Samir Gagegea, who Aoun
had viciously fought in the eastern districts of
Beirut. The general who had been chief-of-staff
and who had orchestrated Aoun's exodus from Baabda
Palace, stands today in Baabda Palace, the
legitimate and internationally recognized
president of the Lebanese Republic.
At Beirut Airport, Aoun told the masses, most of
whom were too young to remember the civil war,
Lebanon will never be governed again by the
"political feudalism" and "religious system that
dates back to the 19th century". He called for an
end to "old fashioned prototypes which represent
the old bourgeoisie which persisted without
questioning". Aoun has effectively promised to
strike back at the entire political establishment
of Lebanon. Will he succeed?
Before returning to Lebanon,
Aoun promised a "tsunami" in Lebanese politics.
Aoun's first encounter with the press and
well-wishers at Beirut Airport was less than
diplomatic. Annoyed at all the commotion, the
ex-general barked at those welcoming him, claiming
they were noisy. Once a military man, always a
military man. Aoun was never a politician and
never had direct contact with the Lebanese public.
When people started seeing him as a national
leader in 1989-1990, he was too busy with his war
against Gagegea and Syria to engage in populist
politics. The security situation in Lebanon also
prevented him from doing that. He never staged
rallies during his career in Lebanon, but rather,
was always confined to the barracks, living the
life of a professional soldier.
The
average age of his supporters is 20, an age where
young men and women are full of life, and easily
enchanted by Aoun's fiery speeches, which he
gave from his exile in France. A generation
hungry for reform and hope, they supported Aoun as
an exiled leader. Now that he has returned to
Lebanon, and engaged himself once again in the
dirty game of Arab politics, he might lose the
aura he had created for himself as a
"struggler" from 1990-2005. He also faces the
difficulties of a wide generation gap between him
and his supporters. Aoun is 70, while his
supporters are in their early 20s. If he fails to
live up to their expectations, this impatient
generation could quickly abandon him and turn to
younger, more attractive politicians.
Aoun has said he
has his eyes set on the presidency, but by the
next time presidential elections take place in
Lebanon in 2007, Aoun will be 72. Also, Aoun needs
to understand that unlike in the 1980s, the
Maronites are no longer the de facto rulers of Lebanon -
not because of Syria, but because demographics
have changed in the Lebanese Republic. It is
the Muslims (or more specifically the Shi'ites)
who are the current majority in Lebanon, and any
future deal should be cut with the Muslims. Aoun
cannot spearhead opposition to traditional
Muslim leaders, nor can he completely cozy up to them,
in fear of losing support within his own
Maronite constituency. While he was in exile, the
Maronites created new leaders for themselves who even
today would defeat Aoun in the most democratic
of elections. The first name that comes to mind
is Nasib Lahhoud, a moderate, seasoned, and
highly respected Maronite politician. Also, so long
as Aoun remains on bad terms with Sfeir, whom
he promised to visit soon, he stands a slim chance
of becoming the leader he strives to be, since
Sfeir is still considered a principal figure
and ultimate authority in Christian politics in
Lebanon.
History of Michel
Aoun
Aoun was born in 1935 into a
poor family in Haret Hraik, a Shi'ite neighborhood
that currently serves as a stronghold for
Hezbollah, the Shi'ite resistance of Lebanon. It
acquired this status in the 15-years of Aoun's
absence in Paris, and upon his return to Beirut,
one of the first questions fired at him by a
journalist was whether he intended to visit his
native neighborhood, which is swarming with
Shi'ite warriors today, and meet with Hezbollah's
Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah. He replied
affirmatively.
The Haret Hraik that Aoun
was born into in 1935 was a mixed Muslim-Christian
suburb south of Beirut. Aoun attended Catholic
schools, lived with a religious family, but
declared years later that he "never differentiated
between Ali and Peter, or between Hasan and
Michel".
Aoun finished high school in 1955, during the heyday
of Christian power in Lebanon under the regime
of the Christian "king", president Kamil Sham'un.
He enrolled at the Military Academy and graduated
in 1958, while a Muslim uprising was raging
in Lebanon against Sham'un. Aoun watched
attentively as the Lebanese army, which he was
entering, remained loyal to its president. When Aoun was
40, his country went to civil war, as the Palestinian
Liberation Organization (PLO) of Yasser Arafat
fought with the Muslims of Lebanon against the
Maronite forces of Pierre Gemayel, who were backed
by Syria. By the late 1970s, the Lebanese army had
fractured along sectarian lines, yet Aoun, having
learned from the 1958 experience, remained loyal
to the central government. In the early 1980s, he
became head of the "defense brigade" of the
Lebanese army, a unit separating East and West
Beirut. In 1982, he was involved in fighting
against the Israeli army that occupied Beirut.
That
same year, Aoun created the 8th brigade, which
fought the Syrian army in the Souk al-Gharb pass
overlooking Beirut. In June 1984, a reconciliation
conference was held for all warring parties in
Switzerland (brokered by former prime minister
Rafiq al-Harriri). Army commander Ibrahim Tannous
was fired and replaced by General Aoun. Aoun
complied, but took no part in politics, giving no
press interviews in 1984-1988. In September 1988,
15 minutes before the end of his term, president
Amin Gemayel appointed Aoun prime minister,
thereby breaching the National Pact of 1943, which
said that a prime minister had to be a Muslim
Sunni, whereas the president's office would be
occupied exclusively by a Maronite Christian.
Lebanon's Muslim prime minister, Salim al-Hoss,
who had taken over after the assassination of
prime minister Rashid Karameh, refused to step
down, resulting in two Lebanese governments.
Aoun's team reigned from Baabda Palace.
When he came to power,
Aoun only controlled limited areas of East Beirut.
To establish himself as a cross-confessional
leader, Aoun began his war on the Lebanese Forces
(LF), a Maronite militia headed by Gagegea. He
ordered 15,000 of his troops into action and
wrestled the port of Beirut from the LF. He
shelled entire neighborhoods of East Beirut and
infuriated the Christians of Lebanon, who to date,
had kept East Beirut quiet and safe. Ghassan
Tweini, publisher of the Beirut daily al-Nahhar,
said in an interview years later that the
Christians will not forgive Aoun for dropping
bombs on their heads during what was labeled "the
war of cancellation" within the Maronite
community. On March 14, 1989, Aoun declared a "war
of liberation" against Syria. This war was one of
his bloodiest. He ignored the advice of the Arab
League, destroyed what remained of West Beirut,
and contributed to the exodus of over 1 million
people from Beirut. He opened channels with
Syria's archenemies, Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein and PLO chairman Arafat, both of whom
supported him with no hesitation.
Aoun
finally agreed to a cease-fire by the Arab League
in September 1989, but refused to endorse the Taif
Accord of Saudi Arabia (October 1989), claiming
that it did not call for the withdrawal of the
Syrian army from Lebanon. He was also opposed to
the constitutional changes that emerged at Taif,
which stated that the Muslim prime minister would
be voted on by parliament and not appointed by
the Maronite president. Support for Taif came from
both Gagegea and Sfeir, who declared that Aoun's
stance was illegal and unconstitutional. Around
100 of Aoun's supporters even invaded the
Patriarchal See in Bkirki, physically assaulting
Sfeir for his support of Taif. Sfeir complained
that Aoun's army, stationed at the gates of
Bkirki, had failed to protect him. Aoun's
"rebellion" ended rapidly when in August 1990, his
friend Saddam invaded Kuwait. The United States,
eager to defeat the Iraqi dictator, wanted Arab
support in Operation Desert Storm. It found no
better way to achieve that than through an
alliance with Syria for the liberation of Kuwait.
Syria's late president Hafez al-Asad sent his army
to the Arabian Desert, and in reward, the US gave
him a green light to bring the saga of Michel Aoun
to an end.
On the morning of October 13,
1990, the Syrian army launched a massive operation
on Baabda Palace and areas of East Beirut
controlled by General Aoun. The defeated general
fled to the French Embassy in Beirut then moved to
Paris when president Francois Mitterrand gave him
political asylum. Syria established itself in
Lebanon with firm power through Lebanon's new
president Elias Hrawi, his prime minister Rafiq
al-Harriri, and speaker Nabih Berri, all of whom
came to power with the direct backing of Damascus.
Meanwhile, a pro-Aoun movement emerged in Beirut,
among high school and university students, called
the Free Patriotic Movement, which he supported
from his Paris-exile. In 2003, Aoun played a
leading role in getting the US to pass the Syrian
Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Act, which
brought criminal charges against him in Beirut,
where many described his alliance with Washington
against Damascus as treason. During the early
1990s, it became common in certain Christian
neighborhoods to read the phrase: "Aoun will
return!"
Aoun has returned
Aoun has returned and finds a
political arena fertile for activism. The first issue
to erupt in everyone's face is the 2000
election law, which will govern parliamentary
elections scheduled to take place for Lebanon's 128-seat
chamber on four consecutive Sundays, starting on May
29. This law, drafted by General Ghazi Kenaan,
who was Syria's intelligence supreme in Lebanon
until 2002, places Christian districts within
larger Muslim ones. Bsherri, for example, the
birthplace of Gagegea and a strong base for his disbanded LF,
is in the same district as Dinniyeh, which
has a Muslim majority. With a Muslim
majority, the Christians will have to rely on them for the
victory of their candidates. Chairman of
the Lebanese Socialist Progressive party and
opposition leader Walid Jumblatt has allied himself with Sfeir, much
to the displeasure of Aoun, and Saad
al-Harriri, the political heir and son of Lebanon's
slain former prime minister Rafiq al-Harriri. A meeting
on Tuesday between Harriri Jr and Aoun raises fears of a
Aoun-Harriri alliance in the upcoming elections,
much to the displeasure of Jumblatt, who refuses
to meet or work with Aoun. Christian opposition
members are pressing for a new law with smaller
constituencies but many are opposed to any change,
fearing that a change would delay the elections,
which Prime Minister Najib Mikati has promised to
hold on time.
For
his part, Aoun is delicately striking his election
alliances with former archenemies and foes. Aoun
received Strida Gagegea, the wife of arrested
warlord Samir Gagegea, and promised to "turn a
page on the past". Samir Gagegea, arrested in
1994, will be released from jail soon, but not
before the elections take place, since it is in
nobody's interest in Lebanon for him to enter the
election race, after 11 years of arrest, and turn
the tables on Aoun, Lahhoud, Jumblatt and
practically everyone else.
More surprisingly, Aoun received
Hezbollah representative Ali Ammar, who said that
a high-profile meeting was soon to be held
between Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah,
since both men share a parallel vision on
political reform. Both imposed themselves on
Lebanese politics forcefully, and neither are members of
the feudal notability of Lebanese politics that
has been in power with no interruptions since the
turn of the 20th century. Many fear an electoral
alliance between Nasrallah and Aoun, which Ammar
hinted at after his meeting with the ex-general.
Aoun has also received another traditional foe,
the Amal Movement, which is headed by the
pro-Syrian Speaker of Parliament Berri.
Aoun
has also allied himself with the pro-Syrian
ex-minister of interior Sulayman Franjiyyieh,
who visited him upon his return to Beirut
and said that Aoun's team were "true Christians",
claiming that rivalries in the past do
not mean an alliance cannot be formed between them
today. Aoun also allied himself with Emile Lahhoud
Jr, the son of the president who is a deputy
in parliament for the Maronite stronghold of
al-Metn. An alliance with Lahhoud Jr would also mean
an alliance with Lahhoud Jr's brother-in-law Elias
al-Murr, another pro-Syrian former minister of
interior. Traditionally, the Lahhouds and their
in-laws, the Murrs, were the ones to gain the
most from the 2000 election law, because due to
their alliance with pro-Syrian Muslims, they
also secured a majority in parliamentary
elections. Today, both the Lahhouds and Murrs fear
that Aoun's popularity in al-Metn would ruin
their standing among Christian voters in the
Maronite district. That is why the president said on Tuesday that
the 2000 election law, which he had once relentlessly
defended, "does not achieve equality among
the Lebanese". If Aoun allies himself with other
politicians in al-Metn, like ex-president Gemayel
or Nasib Lahhoud, he can easily defeat the Lahhouds
and the Murrs. This is why Lahhoud Jr, probably
under the guidance of his father, hurried to
work with Aoun, although Aoun has been the loudest
critic of the Lahhoud regime since its creation in
1998, describing it as a Syrian-creation.
A defeat for Lahhoud in the upcoming
elections would be a disaster for the Lebanese
president, for he would run a high risk of being
voted out of office if an anti-Syrian, or
anti-Lahhoud parliament is elected. That is why
the Lahhouds, who have been pro-Syria more than
Syria itself, need Aoun today (more so than Syria)
to survive in Lebanon. Another early-caller on
Aoun was Druze leader Talal Arslan, who combats
Jumblatt over leadership of the Druze community in
Lebanon. He too offered to work with Aoun, to
defeat Jumblatt in the Druze-Maronite district of
Aley.
Jumblatt would also fear an alliance
between Aoun and Hezbollah in Baabda. Jumblatt,
fearing Aoun's influence in the elections, was
highly critical of Aoun and called on Lahhoud to
resign, wanting to get rid of both men. Aoun stood
up for the Lebanese president, who he has
repeatedly criticized, signaling that he might
ally himself with Lahhoud, Syria, and Hezbollah,
to defeat Jumblatt and the current leaders of the
Lebanese opposition. Once rid of Jumblatt, and in
the power struggle of Lebanon, he would turn his
attention against Lahhoud, Syria, and Hezbollah.
This is a complex and complicated game, even by
the standards of Lebanon.
Sami
Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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