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Move over
Zarqawi
By B Raman
There has been speculation galore
regarding Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of
al-Qaeda in Iraq, ever since the US Marines
conducted a flushing-out operation to smoke out
foreign terrorists allegedly operating from the
Sunni stronghold of Qaim, which is located in a
desert area where the Euphrates river crosses from
Syria into Iraq.
The operation, which was
code-named Operation Matador, was carried out
between May 8 and 15. It had two main objectives.
First, to flush out the terrorists and resistance
fighters operating in the rest of Iraq from
sanctuaries in Iraqi territory in the Qaim area.
Second, to convey a message to Damascus about the
possibility of a more vigorous US operational
policy in the areas near the Syrian border if it
provided sanctuaries and other assistance to the
resistance. The message was particularly meant to
stress the dangers of hot pursuit by US troops
into Syrian territory.
The operation was
essentially provoked by the escalation in the
violent activities of the resistance ever since
the formation of the new government headed by
Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, a Shi'ite reported
to be close to Teheran, on April 28. However, it
was also triggered by US suspicion that Zarqawi's
headquarters were located in this area. US
officials projected the operation as a major
success, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of
foreign terrorists, though Zarqawi himself could
not be found. But other independent sources played
down the American claims and asserted that while
hundreds were killed, they were not all from the
resistance. According to them, many were civilians
who fell victim to excessive use of force by the
Marines.
Moreover, violence has continued
unabated in different parts of central and
northern Iraq, particularly in Baghdad and other
areas of the Sunni Triangle, even after Operation
Matador. Not only hundreds of Iraqis have died,
many of them Shi'ite and Kurd members of the
security forces and governmental agencies
associated with the post-election government, but
even Americans continue to die, though in smaller
numbers. According to the latest estimates, 60
American soldiers have died so far since May 1.
This shows that Operation Matador has not had any
major impact - at least until now - on the morale,
motivation and determination of the resistance.
Interestingly, the operation has given
rise to a plethora of speculation regarding
Zarqawi. Most of the speculation has been the
outcome of five reports originating from different
sources. The first report was given currency by
llen Knickmeyer of the Washington Post. Reporting
from the al-Asad American air base in Iraq on May
5, this journalist said:
The US military is examining reports
that insurgent leader Abu Musab Zarqawi was
present last week at a hospital in Anbar
province and the possibility that he may be ill
or wounded, officials said Wednesday. US
officials gave no details as to why they believe
Zarqawi may be sick or injured. But US military
authorities were quoted this month as saying
that Zarqawi had left medical information about
himself on a laptop computer that was seized
February 20 in his closest known call with
American pursuers. When his car was pulled over
at a checkpoint outside Ramadi, Zarqawi fled on
foot, leaving behind the laptop, photos of
himself and contacts, officials said. It was not
clear whether suspicions about his health were
linked to the seizure of the computer or grew
directly out of Zarqawi's reported presence last
week at a hospital in Ramadi, the capital of
restive Anbar province. Zarqawi's group asserted
in a written statement posted at two mosques,
one of them in Ramadi, that the Jordanian-born
militant was at the hospital last Thursday
during a raid by US forces, but that the
Americans missed him. An inexplicable
part of the report was why should the Zarqawi
group reveal that he was present in the hospital
and that a raiding American party missed him? Was
it true or was it trying to mislead the Americans
about the exact whereabouts of Zarqawi by giving
the impression that he was in Ramadi whereas he
was elsewhere.
The second report, which
was dated May 11, emanated from Elaph, a popular
Arab website. It quoted one Colonel Fouad Hani
Hassan, described as the commander of the fifth
division of the newly raised Iraqi army, as saying
that Zarqawi "is seriously injured, possibly
dead". This report, which did not indicate how
this Iraqi officer came to this conclusion, lacked
credibility.
Mohamad Bazzi, a Beirut-based
journalist, whose reports are carried by some
online news websites, was the author of the third
report. He reported on May 20, "Zarqawi was
injured and almost captured during a recent US
offensive near the Iraqi-Syrian border, according
to Iraqi security officials. Zarqawi was not badly
wounded, and he managed to escape during the
weeklong US siege of the town of Qaim, said two
senior security officials who spoke by phone from
Iraq and asked not to be named. The officials said
their information is based on interrogations of
insurgents captured in the area."
According to one official, Zarqawi was
hiding out in Qaim or in the surrounding regions.
"He was apparently surprised by the American
operation."
US intelligence officials say
they have heard reports about Zarqawi being
injured, but they have been unable to confirm
them. "We don't rule it out," said a US official
familiar with the Central Intelligence Agency's
reporting on the issue. "The guy is racing around
and is in harm's way, so you can't rule out the
possibility ... It's hard to corroborate when the
guy is a ghost running around out there somewhere.
We try to track him as best we can."
The
fourth report came on Wednesday from John F Burns
and Terence Neilan of The New York Times. They
said:
An Internet site used by al-Qaeda in
Iraq said Tuesday that its leader, Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, had been wounded, and it asked for
Muslims to pray for his recovery. "Let everybody
know that the injury of our leader is an honor,
and causes us to surround our enemy tighter,"
the statement said, in a translation by the
Search for International Terrorist Entities
Institute (SITEI) in Washington. The institute
monitors Islamic websites.The wording of the
six-paragraph statement, issued by the
"information section" of the group, al-Qaeda
Organization in the Land of Two Rivers, sounded
as if Zarqawi has been badly hurt, and that his
supporters were probably being prepared for his
death. There was no way to assess the veracity
of the statement or to determine whether it
might even be a ploy to dilute the pursuit of
Zarqawi, the American military's "most wanted
man" in Iraq with a $25 million bounty on his
head. Other newspapers and agencies
also disseminated the translation by the SITEI.
Reuters quoted Lieutenant Colonel Steve Boylan, a
US spokesman in Baghdad, as saying that he could
not assess the report's credibility. "We have no
information on whether he's wounded or what the
state of his health is," he said. "He's still our
No 1 target to be captured or killed and until
that happens, the hunt is still on."
The
same day, the Northeast Intelligence Network, an
online terrorism analysis group in the US, put out
a different interpretation of the statement, which
was in Arabic, purported to have been issued by
the information section of the Zarqawi group.
Its interpretation, which was titled
"Zarqawi Injured, Status Questionable At Best:
Single Statement, One Analysis Does Not Make It
Fact", said:
A message from the terrorist
organization al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two
Rivers via spokesman/poster Abu Maysara al
Iraqi, was posted yesterday [Tuesday] about the
alleged wounding of the most hideous of Islamic
terrorists, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. "The wording
of the six-paragraph statement, issued by the
information section of the group al-Qaeda
Organization in the Land of Two Rivers, sounded
as if Zarqawi has been badly hurt, and that his
supporters were probably being prepared for his
death." This analysis is attributed to the SITE
Institute and was quickly parroted by major
media - which begs the question - has anyone
bothered to actually read and analyze the
statement? Does anyone consider the references
to Islamic history within these statements? This
statement follows last week's extensive message
from Zarqawi himself, which not only calls for
an increase in attacks in Iraq, but legitimizes
the killing of Muslim women and children in the
advancement of jihad. He cites Koranic
references to drive home the point that anyone
not supportive of jihad are themselves "cannon
fodder". The latest statement, however, drawing
sympathy from Muslim supporters worldwide, could
be a ruse designed, in part, to incite violence
against US forces in Iraq. Be careful of the
information you receive, as it might be designed
to deceive. The Northeast Intelligence
Network also gave its own English translation of
the Arabic statement, which is annexed below. A
careful reading of the translation shows, firstly,
there is no reference to Zarqawi by name. It
merely talks of a "sheikh", which has been
presumed to be a reference to Zarqawi. Why can't
it be a reference to Osama bin Laden, who is also
referred to by his followers as a sheikh. The
statement, according to this translation, does not
say that the sheikh is injured, so pray for him.
It says should the sheikh be injured, pray for
him. Why should the information section put out a
statement that all Muslims should pray if their
sheikh is injured? This is inexplicable unless the
poster has no personal information on Zarqawi and
had made his posting on the basis of the reports
discussed above which speculate about the
possibility of Zarqawi having been injured.
Where are we after reading and analyzing
all these reports and comments on them by various
analysts? Nowhere. We are as much in a state of
confusion as we have always been since the US-led
coalition invaded and occupied Iraq. All that one
knows for certain is:
More than two years after the occupation, the
Arab Sunni resistance to the US-led occupation
shows no signs of abating.
There has been an unending flow of volunteers
- from Iraq as well as outside - for the
resistance movement, with many of them
volunteering themselves for suicide missions.
Iraqis - many of them from deposed president
Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party and armed forces -
and Saudis, recruited by al-Qaeda, spearhead the
resistance movement.
The Iraqi resistance has shown remarkable
coordination, even if it has been operating
separately.
There is a common brain behind all the
anti-American operations in Iraq.
The
Americans project Zarqawi's as that common brain,
but their evidence in this regard is far from
conclusive. The Americans, with their penchant for
demonization and dramatization, have made Zarqawi
appear as the source of most of what has been
happening in Iraq, just as, post-September 11,
they had made bin Laden appear as the source of
most of the anti-Western jihadi terrorism taking
place in the Islamic world.
Even if one
leaves aside the over-projection of Zarqawi by the
US, certain conclusions are inescapable:
Unlike bin Laden, who does not get involved in
the micro-management of the global jihadi
operations of al-Qaeda, the nuts-and-bolts
involvement of Zarqawi in the operations of the
foreign terrorists of al-Qaeda in Iraqi territory
has been more intense and personal.
Whereas the incapacitation or capture or death
of bin Laden may not have any lasting impact on
the activities of al-Qaeda and the International
Islamic Front in the rest of the world, that of
Zarqawi is likely to have a greater impact on the
operations of foreign terrorists in Iraq. But it
is unlikely to have any significant impact on the
operations of the Arab Sunni resistance-fighters.
If Zarqawi is captured, incapacitated or
killed, the problem could be a little more
manageable for the Americans in Iraq, but blood
will continue to flow unless and until they
succeed in pacifying the Sunni Arabs. It is
doubtful whether they will be able to do this
without the cooperation of Saddam Hussein, now in
custody pending trial for crimes against humanity.
De-demonizing Saddam and his followers and
making amends for the wrongs done to them in the
past are as important as neutralizing Zarqawi - if
not more important - if the Americans are to
extricate themselves from Iraq.
Annexure
Translation of the
web posting of the so-called "information section"
of al-Qaeda, Iraq.
In the name of Allah, the Merciful,
the Compassionate
If a wound has touched
you, know that a corresponding wound has touched
the others. Such days we give to men and men in
turn; that Allah may know those who believe, and
that He may take to Himself from your ranks
Martyr-witnesses. And Allah loves not those that
do wrong. Koran Surah The Cow, verse 140.
O Allah! Make our shots hit their
targets and hold us firmly in place.
Praise be to Allah, the Lord of the
worlds. Final victory is on the side of the
believers, and no aggression except on those who
transgress all bounds. Peace and prayers to the
Imam of the mujahideen, our Prophet, Mohammed,
and to his family and his companions.
Oh
my Islamic nation [ummah], oh brothers of unity,
pray for our sheikh so that Allah will heal him
should he be injured fighting in the name of
Allah! May Allah heal you, our beloved mujahid.
May Allah help you stand firm, both you and
those who accompany you.
The messenger
of Allah was wounded and one of his teeth was
broken in the battle of Uhud. You have indeed in
the messenger of Allah an excellent example for
he who believes in Allah and the Day of
Judgment, and who think of Allah.
Those
near and far should be aware that any injury to
our sheikh will cause us to become more
steadfast against the enemies of Allah, and will
bring a huge increase in attacks against them.
Our sheikh has taught us that everything of
value loses its value when the religion and the
unity are at risk.
Our sheikh has taught
the youth to follow the religion of Abraham, to
forsake evil, and to put our faith and trust in
Allah.
We say to you: if you are
suffering from difficulties, the enemy will also
suffer. But your reward is from Allah, and they
do not have this. Allah knows all.
O
Allah, ease the pain and replace the pain with
healing, for there is no healing except through
your will.
God is the Greatest! God is
the Greatest! God is the Greatest!
Praise be to Allah, to his messenger,
and to the mujahideen.
Al-Qaeda in the
Land of the Two Rivers
Tuesday, 16 Rabea
al-Thani 1426
May 24, 2005
B
Raman is additional secretary (retired),
cabinet secretariat, government of India, New
Delhi, and, presently, director, Institute for
Topical Studies, Chennai, and distinguished
fellow and convener, Observer Research
Foundation, Chennai Chapter. Email:
itschen36@gmail.com
(Copyright 2005 B
Raman) |
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