|
|
|
|
Al-Qaeda poised in Saudi
Arabia
By B Raman
Attention has to be focused on Saudi
Arabia as it enters a period of transition and
uncertainty in the wake of reports about a
deterioration in the health of King Fahd, who has
been admitted to the hospital. In the absence of
authentic reports on his health, rumors are rife
that his end may be near.
The post-Fahd
transition should be a matter of concern to India.
Any instability and violence could have an impact
on the flow and price of oil and on the so-called
"war on terrorism". Such instability could be
caused either by challenges from other members of
the ruling family to the efforts of Crown Prince
Abdullah, the designated and widely expected
successor, to consolidate his power and his
control over the National Guard, the armed forces
and the intelligence agencies, an escalation in
the activities of al-Qaeda or both.
Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan have been the main breeding
grounds of jihadi terrorism. The brains of the
Wahhabi and the Deobandi ideologies motivating
international jihadi terrorists are respectively
located in these two countries. Since the
explosion at the New York World Trade Center in
February 1993, Saudi and Pakistani nationals have
been at the forefront of the international jihadi
terrorist movement, with the largest number of
suicide terrorists coming from these two
countries.
Fifteen of the 19 al-Qaeda
terrorists who carried out the September 11, 2001
attacks on the US were Saudi nationals. According
to a study in March of this year by Dr Reuven Paz,
a highly respected Israeli counterterrorism
analyst, 94 out of 154 Arabs who participated in
terrorist attacks in Iraq during the six-month
period preceding the study, came from Saudi
Arabia. That amounts to 61% of the total.
Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia has shown
tremendous resilience, despite being subject to
ruthless suppression by the Saudi security forces.
The loss of its leaders, one after the other in
encounters with the security forces, has not
dented the network's morale, motivation and
determination. It has shown a remarkable
capability to rise again and again after each fall
and make its presence felt.
The spawning
of so many jihadi terrorists from Saudi Arabian
soil for participating in acts of jihadi
terrorism, either in Saudi territory, in Iraq or
elsewhere, indicates that the world has until now
seen only the tip of the Saudi jihadi iceberg.
There are innumerable sleeper cells in Saudi
Arabia that have been keeping the international
jihadi terrorist movement sustained through the
injection of funds, volunteers for suicide
missions and other means.
The success of
these sleeper cells speaks of local support - in
the general populace as well as in the
intelligence agencies and the security forces.
And, possibly, in some sections of the ruling
family too. Without such support, it is
inconceivable that there could have been an
uninterrupted flow of volunteers for suicide
missions in Iraq without being intercepted.
The nexus of the intelligence agencies of
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan with the world of jihadi
terrorism dates from the days of the jihad of the
1980s against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan.
There is no reason to believe that this nexus,
which now exists mainly at the middle and lower
levels, has been broken. So long as this nexus
remains intact, a strategic victory in the "war
against terrorism" will remain elusive.
The al-Qaeda iceberg in Saudi Arabia would
be an important factor in determining the course
of events in the post-Fahd transition.
B Raman is additional secretary
(retired), cabinet secretariat, government of
India, New Delhi, and, presently, director,
Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and
distinguished fellow and convener, Observer
Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter. Email:
itschen36@gmail.com
(Copyright 2005 B
Raman) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
|
|
|
