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Limited options for Iran's
voters
By Safa Haeri
PARIS - The closer Iran's June 17
presidential elections get, the more heated the
rhetoric becomes, the more large sections of the
general public remain indifferent, and the louder
the calls grow for a boycott.
Former
president and present current chairman of the
powerful Assembly for Discerning the Interests of
the State, or Expediency Council, Ayatollah
Hashemi Rafsanjani, the current frontrunner among
the eight candidates and most likely to win, is
trailed by General Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf, a
former chief of police: Ali Larijani, the
unpopular former head of the state-owned,
conservative-controlled Radio and Television
Organization; Mohammad Ahmad Nejad, Tehran's
mayor; and Mohsen Rezai, a former commander of the
Revolutionary Guards. The candidates, four of who
belong to different and warring conservative
factions, are joined by Mostafa Moin, the lead
candidate of the reformists, who is expected to
garner less than 4% of the vote; Mehdi Karoubi,
the Speaker of the previous majlis (parliament);
and Mohsen Mehralizadeh, an independent.
According to insiders who spoke to Asia
Times Online, Rafsanjani decided to enter the
competition after reaching a "gentleman's
agreement" with his old friend and now foe,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic
Republic who, despite his immense powers, is
nevertheless prisoner of other powerful but
shadowy forces.
"To free himself of the
ultra-conservatives, Khamenei, in order to both
survive and preserve the system, needs Rafsanjani,
his Machiavellian political skill, his structures,
his influence in the private sector and his
lobbies inside and outside the country," one
analyst pointed out, saying that for his part, in
order to also survive, Rafsanjani needs the powers
of Khamenei to get the regime out of the quagmire
that is engulfing it slowly but surely. "It was a
give-and-take agreement," the source told Asia
Times Online.
It was probably because of
this agreement that Rafsanjani dared to break a
taboo imposed by Khamenei over the United States,
who banned the press, politicians and even
lawmakers from speaking about dialogue with the
"Great American Satan". Rafsanjani said that he
would place the question of American-Iranian
relations at the top of his priorities.
Apart from the participation of the former
president in the race, an interesting aspect of
the elections is that, for the first time, they
are being fought on a multipolar basis, instead of
along traditional bi-partisan lines. Each side of
the leadership has fielded several candidates
determined to fight until the very end.
The race became more interesting for
Iranians, as well as internationally, once
Rafsanjani decided to run. He adds color,
especially when none of the other participants
exude much charisma, let alone have serious,
concrete, programs for action, except for some
slogans to fight corruption and create jobs for
the millions of unemployed.
Nejad, a
"fundamentalist", regards helping people as a
"religious duty" and places "revolutionary
management" above other projects to "erase class
gaps". Qalibaf wants to become a "Reza but of the
Hezbollah type", an odd reference to Reza Shah,
the initiator of modern Iran and founder of the
Pahlavi dynasty that was toppled by Grand
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's Islamic revolution
of 1979. That explains why he decided to reveal
that while between 30% and 35% of smuggling in the
country is undertaken by professional smugglers,
the rest is in the hands of high-placed officials.
He vowed that he would fight this, but without
explaining how.
Rezai believes Iranians
have reached the point "to choose between the
Islamic republic and a prosperous, respectable
life", while Larijani, the lead candidate of the
Coordination Committee of Revolutionary Forces, is
running his campaign under the slogan of "fresh
air and government of hope", proposing "progress,
scientific economy and competent and active
government in line with the ideals of the Islamic
revolution".
"Iran for all Iranians"
trumpets Moin, who, like Mehralizadeh, was
initially rejected by the Guardians Council, but
allowed to join the race thanks to the personal
intervention of the leader. He is the only one who
incorporates human rights in his policy program.
As for Karoubi, the other reformist
candidate backed by the pro-reform Association of
Militant Clergymen, he says that "the only way of
safeguarding the regime is respecting the will of
the people and bowing to it." Like Moin, Karoubi
believes that implementing reforms will help solve
problems in the system and ensure its survival,
but he and his backers don't say how they will
carry out these reforms, given that outgoing
President Mohammad Khatami, elected with more than
20 million votes, was unable to bring about any
meaningful change in his two terms.
"In
the coming elections, two pro-reform candidates
propose to continue the path of Khatami, the same
one that ended in an impasse. The conservative
runner repeats old revolutionary slogans. As for
Hashemi Rafsanjani, he [makes statements
concerning] uniting feuding wings, the sensitivity
of the Iranian situation or relations with the
United States," noted Faraj Sarkouhi, an Iranian
intellectual living in Germany.
Rafsanjani, 70, speaking in a television
appearance, said: "The situation is changing
rapidly. To respond to the legitimate demands of
this new generation, new solutions are necessary.
Nobody should think that we can act by employing
the same literature, the same policies or the same
attitudes that we had at the beginning of the
revolution or at the end of the [Iran-Iraq] war."
Regretting that the Expediency Council
chairman had no place in his policy program for
human rights, an editorial published by the
independent daily Sharq on June 1 warned, "If Mr
Hashemi Rafsanjani wants to be a perfect
candidate, he cannot ignore human rights, an issue
at the heart of Iran's dialogue with the outside
world, including the European Union."
On
the issue of Iran's nuclear activities, another
subject out of the reach of the president, all
candidates are on the same wavelength, meaning
that Iran has the right to acquire atomic
technology for peaceful uses. "No Iranian official
can oppose this absolute right, that is, getting
nuclear know-how," stated Rafsanjani. A staunch
critic of the Iranian nuclear negotiation team,
Larijani said ironically, "If we cannot enrich
uranium, let's enrich democracy."
The
anti-election camp counts the Office for
Consolidating Unity, the largest and most active
organization among Iran's students, as well as
several popular and influential voices, including
Hojjatoeslam Abdollah Nouri, a twice former
Interior minister impeached by previous
parliaments; Abbas Amir Entezam, Iran's
longest-known political prisoner; Naser Zarafshan,
a prominent lawyer who is serving a five-year jail
term for defending the families of victims in a
serial murder case; Shirin Ebadi, the winner of
the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize; and Akbar Ganji, an
investigative journalist and writer who denounced
the role of Rafsanjani and his intelligence
minister, Ali Fallahian, in the assassination of
five prominent politicians and intellectuals in
November 1998 at the hands of senior officers of
the secret services.
To sum up the reasons
they are against the elections, Ganji, in a
"Manifesto for Republicanism", points out that
under the present political system, the president
has no power, no role in decision-making centers
like the leader, the Revolutionary Guards, the
Judiciary, the Guardians Council or the Expediency
Council.
To the claims by the reformists
that by their presence in power they can at least
curb the conservatives from cracking down further
on dissidents, or prevent possible American
military intervention in Iran, the anti-election
people respond that these arguments are
self-satisfying, as seen by the eight years of
Khatami's presidency ending in farce. As for
American threats, "they are the fruit of the
aggressive policy of the ruling Iranian
authorities and will continue as long as the
current policy is in action".
Dilemma
for students
Some student activists are
advocating an election boycott. This is not a
minor matter - some two-thirds of Iran's
population is under the age of 30 (46 million out
of a total population of 69 million) and the
voting age is 15. Plus, eight years ago, young
Iranians helped a relatively liberal dark horse
(Khatami) win a landslide victory, reports Bill
Samii of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. But
although a boycott could show disaffection with
the country's deeply flawed political system, it
is unlikely to have any real effect.
The
students have not been bashful. In mid-May,
students at several universities staged sit-ins to
show their unhappiness with the country's stifling
political climate. Leading members of the Office
for Consolidating Unity, met in Teheran on May 19
and expressed unhappiness with the restrictions
placed on them. They also suspended the branch
from Saduqi University in Yazd because it has
expressed support for the candidacy of Rafsanjani.
The Office for Strengthening Unity leadership
noted that this stance contradicted its ban on
political involvement.
Soon thereafter, 35
university student associations issued a statement
expressing concern about the course of political
developments in the country. Their statement said,
according to the reformist Aftab-e Yazd newspaper
on May 23, that students were questioning the
effectiveness of elections given the authoritarian
trend in the country. They warned of a social
explosion and delays in the democratization of the
country. They warned the hardline political
figures that sooner or later the people will
realize that they have a right to choose and elect
candidates freely. The students wrote that they
see it as their duty to resist the country's
authoritarians.
Student activism is
encouraging to the reformists, but the numbers are
not. The total university student population is
1.2 million, which seems small compared to the
total population of about 69 million. Other
factors, such as tactical differences, state
repression and the resulting lack of leadership,
also limit the students' potential.
Students are divided on the political role
they should play. The Office for Strengthening
Unity (Daftar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat) is divided into
two wings. The majority "Allameh" faction wants to
withdraw from the political system and generally
advocates an election boycott, whereas the
minority "Shiraz" faction generally favors
participation and operating within the current
political framework. Another student organization,
known as the Tabarzadi Group for its founder, the
oft-imprisoned Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, advocates a
more radical approach to politics. In the 1980s,
furthermore, the regime created the University
Jihad and the Student Basij, and 1998 legislation
created a Basij unit in every university.
State repression has dampened young
people's political ardor. For example, police
arrested some 4,000 people after June 2003
demonstrations over the possibility of paying
tuition. Individuals associated with July 1999
demonstrations are still in jail. An ominous
phenomenon that has emerged in the past few years
is the detention of activists by unaccountable
security personnel at undisclosed locations.
The overall lack of forceful and
consistent leadership hinders the ability of
students to effectively express themselves or to
oppose the system. Moreover, the Office for
Strengthening Unity, specifically, and young
voters, generally, are disappointed by the result
of the elections. The individuals they voted for -
Khatami in 1997 and 2001, and reformist
legislators in 2000 - could not accomplish
anything substantive because their efforts were
countered by unelected but powerful institutions
and individuals.
Under these
circumstances, the student activists' tactical
approach has changed. By early 2000 they had
adopted the policy of "active calm" (aramesh-e
faal), to avoid a violent crackdown by the
security forces and their vigilante allies. By
March there were calls for a boycott of the
presidential election from a wing of the Office
for Strengthening Unity. In early May, more than
500 critics and dissidents signed a letter saying
they will not vote in the June polls. These calls
have picked up steam.
Most of the
candidates have, at one time or another, met with
student groups in an effort to gain their support.
Moin is the only candidate who counts on student
support, particularly from the majority faction of
the Office for Strengthening Unity. The minority
faction of the student organization tends to back
Karoubi. It is noteworthy that after his candidacy
was reinstated, Moin said the Guardians Council
actions caused unhappiness in the country,
"especially among the students".
Whether
or not they boycott the election, opponents of the
current setup, including the students, face a
no-win situation. The victory of a hardline
candidate - and this includes Rafsanjani - is
almost certain if most Iranians do not vote,
because the hardliners have well-mobilized
constituencies. In the absence of neutral election
observers, furthermore, the regime can manipulate
the figures to show a high turnout, which it will
inevitably depict as a sign of its legitimacy and
high level of popular support.
Safa
Haeri is a Paris-based Iranian journalist
covering the Middle East and Central Asia.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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