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More power to
Hezbollah
By Erich Marquardt
Hezbollah's victory in Lebanon's
second-stage elections at the weekend exposes how
the Shi'ite population in the southern part of the
country views this resistance organization. By
winning 80% of the vote in the southern region,
Hezbollah will secure influence in the new
parliament and will assert that its win serves as
a mandate for its present military operations.
Implications of Hezbollah's
win
While Hezbollah's win was expected, its
victory is still important since the result makes
it more difficult for the international community
to disarm the resistance organization. Hezbollah
was formed in 1982 in response to Israel's
invasion of Lebanon. It steadily resisted Israeli
occupation and played an instrumental role in
Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. It still
claims that Israel occupies Lebanese territory -
in the area known as Shebaa Farms - and has
therefore continued low-intensity warfare against
the Israeli state.
Due to its role in
leading the resistance against Israel's
occupation, it became the only armed resistance
group allowed to keep its arms following the
Lebanese civil war that occurred between 1975 and
1990. From 1990 until today, Hezbollah remains an
important power player in southern Lebanon. It
also represents the country's Shi'ite community,
which, before Hezbollah and the Amal Movement were
formed, was repressed politically.
The
United States, however, views Hezbollah as a
terrorist organization. Washington, along with
Paris, sponsored a UN Security Council resolution
demanding that Hezbollah disarm. The Security
Council vote on Resolution 1559 was successful,
but Hezbollah has resisted its demands. Hezbollah
has now argued that its election win acts as a
mandate for it to continue its armed resistance
and defense against Israel.
"The win ...
is the decisive expression of our people's
rejection of Resolution 1559," stated Mohammad
Raad, president of Hezbollah's parliamentary
block. "It is an expression of our people's
commitment to protect the path, choice and weapons
of the resistance."
The win also makes it
unlikely that any government in Beirut will
attempt to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah's support
from Lebanon's Shi'ite population, and historical
role as the defender of Lebanon, would mean that
any attempt by Beirut to disarm the organization
would spark civil warfare.
Hezbollah's win
also demonstrates that Syria will be able to
preserve its influence in Lebanon; Damascus
recently withdrew its military forces following
massive protests that erupted over its occupation
after the February 14 assassination of former
Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah
has traditionally received much of its financial
and military support from Syria and Iran, and
Damascus can partially make up for its loss of
influence in Lebanon by becoming closer to
Hezbollah. Furthermore, Syrian and Iranian support
will also frustrate future attempts by Beirut to
isolate and slowly weaken Hezbollah by trying to
choke it of funds or equipment.
Washington in difficult
position
Hezbollah's win places the George
W Bush administration in a difficult position. The
administration considers Hezbollah to be a
terrorist organization. Because of that, its win
in southern Lebanon is not in accordance with US
interests. Hezbollah regularly speaks out against
US influence in the Middle East, and it is
supported by two countries with which Washington
has poor relations: Syria and Iran. Furthermore,
it resists Israel, a strong US ally in the region.
However, the Bush administration has been
a major outspoken proponent of democracy.
Hezbollah's win in southern Lebanon expresses the
democratic aspirations of the region's population.
Therefore, the Bush administration cannot condemn
outright Hezbollah's win without being perceived
as blatantly hypocritical.
Indeed, during
a press conference on Monday aboard Air Force One,
when asked whether the Bush administration was
surprised by Hezbollah's strong showing in the
elections, White House spokesman Scott McClellan
avoided the question, stating only, "Hezbollah, as
you are well aware, is a terrorist organization,
and we've made our views known about that." When
pressed further on the question, McClellan
repeated, "Our views on Hezbollah are unchanged.
Our views on terrorist organizations are
unchanged. We've made those views very clear, and
our belief that terrorist organizations need to be
dismantled."
What to
expect
Hezbollah's victory on Saturday
demonstrates how the organization represents
Lebanon's Shi'ite community. It is supported by
the southern Lebanese population and Hezbollah
will use this support to justify its refusal to
relinquish its arms supplies in accordance with UN
Resolution 1559.
Additionally, the
withdrawal of Syrian forces has created a power
vacuum in Lebanon, one that the United States and
Israel would like to fill. Both countries aim to
establish better relations with Lebanon since the
country is very diverse and could be used to
further isolate the Syrian government.
However, as long as Hezbollah remains
popular in the south, Syria can retain some
influence in Lebanon by continuing its support of
the organization. Furthermore, Hezbollah is just
one of the many sectarian groups within Lebanon.
If these groups continue to push very different
agendas, it will be difficult for Beirut to ever
achieve a stable democracy now that Syria's heavy,
yet stabilizing hand is gone.
Published
with permission of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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