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Syria's Ba'athists ease up, just a
little
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - As Syria's ruling elite met in
a grand hall from Monday to Thursday to discuss
the political future of Syria and the Ba'ath
Party, a United Nations Development Program report
was issued on Wednesday, saying that 11.4% (2
million) of Syria's 18 million people are living
beneath the poverty line, earning less than US$2 a
day. The staggering report might explain why two
days earlier President Bashar Assad had opened the
conference with a speech saying that economic
issues, more than political ones, were a priority
on Syria's agenda.
Assad talked about the
living conditions of Syria's citizens, promising
to improve their lot and stamp out corruption.
These two issues, according to Assad, "are a
priority for us all". He then vigorously defended
the Ba'ath Party and its historical role in
promoting and defending Arabism, and claimed that
if mistakes were made in the past, individuals
were responsible for them, and not the ideology or
the party itself.
This was Assad's
message: the Ba'ath Party is still strong and
still in control of Syria. It still has a lot to
give, the assembled Ba'athists were told. It has
been in power for 43 years, and plans to stay
around for a whole lot longer, although a limited
form of multi-party participation in the political
process will be introduced.
So as the
congress wrapped up, Syrians found themselves
facing two alternatives. They were wondering: do
we look at the bright side and hope for a better
future for Syria, or do we insist on more,
claiming that reforms are minimal, coming too
little and too late, as many opposition groups are
saying?
The majority of Syria's population
are in their 20s, with few political aspirations
yet gigantic professional ones. They do not care
too much about a multi-party law, or press
freedoms, in as much as they care about getting a
good education, finding a well-paying job, buying
a decent house, owning car, avoiding forced
military conscription, and settling down as young
professionals.
To these people, political
change means little, yet they will wait and see
what a new cabinet will bring, given that the
current one of Prime Minister Mohammad Naji
al-Otari is due to retire soon, according to the
London-based al-Hayat. As for the politicized
elite in Syria, they believe it is too early to
judge the outcomes of the congress, but rather,
they will wait cautiously to see how political
pluralism will enhance their lives and restore a
democratic culture to Syria. Its all about
optimism in Syria.
Pre-conference
expectations
The Syrian capital had been
living off rumors for the past three months about
the promised reforms of the Ba'athist conference.
Among other things, there was talk about a
multi-party system, a pardon for political exiles,
a lifting of martial law, and an abolishment of
Law 49, which says that membership in the Muslim
Brotherhood, outlawed since 1963, is a capital
offense punishable by death.
More than
anything else, Syrians speculated that Article 8
of the constitution, which says that the Ba'ath
Party is the ruling party of state and society,
was going to be abolished. The conference outcome,
declared on Thursday, brings this speculation to a
grinding halt. One thing was made clear: Article 8
will not be touched. Some observers mistakenly
believed that Syria began softening its Ba'athist
identity when the Syrian leadership issued a law
in 2003 that said the Ba'ath Party's role was to
guide Syria and not administer day-to-day state
affairs. The law added that appointment in
government office would in the future be based on
merit and not on Ba'athist credentials.
Then, Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara
ended speculation by saying that the law did not
mean de-Ba'athification, nor did it mean that a
non-Ba'athist would be appointed prime minister.
To prove a point that it had no intention of
curbing the party's role, the Syrian regime
appointed Naji al-Otari, a Ba'athist, as premier
shortly after this law was issued in 2003, and a
majority of seats in his cabinet (17 out of 30)
were given to the Ba'ath Party. These included the
ministries of Defense, Interior, Foreign Affairs,
Information, Education, Expatriate Affairs,
Industry and Finance.
Realities
Now that the
conference is over, many things are clear to
Syrians and the rest of the world. Law 49 on the
Muslim Brotherhood will not be amended.
Apparently, that was on nobody's agenda, and the
only reason it got so much attention in recent
weeks was due to the lobbying of Mohammad Habash,
the regime-friendly Islamic deputy in parliament,
who had called for rapprochement with Islamic
groups.
The government sent off a clear
message in May by arresting members of the Jamal
al-Atasi Forum, the only venue for democratic
discourse in Syria, because they had given the
Brotherhood a platform to express its views at a
conference in Damascus. The regime knew these
arrests would give them a lot of bad publicity.
Yet this was a price they were willing to pay to
send a message to everyone: flirting with the
Muslim Brotherhood or allowing them to return to
political life in Syria is a red line that nobody
can cross.
Another outcome of the four-day
conference has been the retirement of about 80% of
the old-time officials in the Ba'ath Party, and
their replacement with younger Ba'athists, since
the president is 39, while many of his politicians
are over 60. Among the most prominent to leave was
Vice President Abd al-Halim Khaddam (73), a
veteran Ba'athist who had assumed several senior
posts since 1963, including minister of economy in
1969, minister of foreign affairs in 1970-1984,
and vice president since 1984.
Khaddam had
been in charge of the "Lebanon portfolio" since
1975 and played an instrumental role in
consolidating Syria's power in Lebanon after the
end of the civil war in 1990. On the first day of
the conference, he resigned, but not before making
a strongly worded speech against Foreign Minister
Farouk al-Shara, criticizing Syria's mishandling
of Lebanese affairs in recent months, and the
decision to extend the mandate of the pro-Syrian
President Emile Lahhoud, an act that triggered UN
Resolution 1559 against Syria calling on it to
withdraw its troops.
Other senior
officials to leave party office have been General
Mustapha Tlas (73), who had been chief of staff in
1968-1970 and minister of defense in 1970-2005.
The Syrian leadership plans to retire all
Ba'athist officials who have been in senior party
office (the National Command) for more than 10
years.
Among other names to be retired are
former premier Mohammad Mustapha Miro (64), who
headed a cabinet in 2000-2004, ex-Speaker of
parliament Abd al-Qadir Qaddura (70), who had
presided over parliament in 1987-2003, the
assistant secretary general of the Ba'ath,
Abdullah al-Ahmar (70), who had been in the job
since 1970. Syria's old vice president, Zuhayr
Masharka (67), in power, like Khaddam, since 1984,
was also retired. A few familiar faces will
remain, however, to provide guidance and
experience to the new Ba'ath leadership, yet they
are not much younger than those who were retired.
They include Naji al-Otari (61), and Foreign
Minister Farouk al-Shara (67). Newcomers to the
party leadership who are familiar faces in Syria
are Defense Minister Hasan Turkmani (70) and
Mahmud al-Abrash, the Speaker of parliament, who
replaces former Speaker Qaddura.
A
multi-party role will be issued shortly after the
conference by allowing for independent parties,
provided that neither Islamist, nor sub-Syrian
parties, are created (Kurdish, Armenian,
Circassian, etc). This is an excellent move.
Although its effects will not be felt overnight,
it will eventually rattle the political landscape,
ending the monopoly of power by the Ba'ath and its
socialist allies, in place since 1963.
It
will gradually shake Syria out of its stuffy
puritan nature, restoring a healthy culture that
existed prior to 1963. Contrary to what many in
the Arabic press and international community have
been speculating, the regime is going to allow
such a step today because it feels confident
enough to do that; not because it is weak.
After all, democracy in Syria was never a
US demand, and so long as Syria fulfills US
demands on Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon, the White
House could not care less about democracy in
Syria. Not once since the fall of Baghdad in 2003
has a senior US official come out and criticized
Syria for being a one-party state. Rather, US
officials criticized Syria on foreign relations
issues where there happens to be an agreement
between the Syrian masses and the government (the
resistance in Palestine and South Lebanon).
The multi-party law is intended to give
the people confidence in the reform program, and
an outlet to voice their views, grievances and
demands. The new parties that will emerge will not
threaten the Ba'ath Party, which due to
indoctrination since 1963 is very well entrenched
in Syria society. Had such a law been issued in
the mid-1960s, for example, when political and
democratic culture were at their peek, then the
situation would have been different and the Ba'ath
would have been seriously challenged by other
parties, as was the case in the 1950s.
The
indoctrination done over the past 43 years through
schools, universities, government agencies and
state-owned radio, television and newspapers
guarantees that in any elections, the Ba'ath Party
will still win. This does not apply to the elite,
who appear on TV, write newspaper articles or have
had the luxury of living or working abroad and
been exposed to political pluralism. This does
apply, however, to Syria's 18 million people, a
majority of whom are young and know no alternative
to the Ba'ath.
Changing the existing order
might have seemed attractive a few years ago, yet
the turbulent situation in Iraq and its ongoing
chaos and lack of security, has made these same
Syrians think again about what future they want
for themselves and their families. As long as the
party is in power, not many of these people are
going to join opposition parties or outright
challenge the Ba'athist authority. The message
from the conference is clear to everyone: the
Ba'ath Party still exists, for all the world to
see.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
(Copyright 2005
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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