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THE ROVING EYE
The axis of
lesser evil
By Pepe Escobar
A member of the Iranian diaspora summed it
up, wryly, in just one phrase: "Welcome to the
axis of lesser evil."
The sophisticated
Persian civilization invented chess. The nuclear
negotiations between Iran and the EU-3 (France,
Germany and Great Britain) is nothing but a game
of chess. Iranians are now taking pleasure in
reducing President George W Bush's moves to dust.
Bush said that last week's presidential elections
were a sham. A flood of electors (62%) went to the
polls to demonstrate otherwise. Ali Yunesi, Iran's
Intelligence Minister, quipped, sarcastically,
"Thank you. He motivated people to vote in
retaliation." Now the counter move is the axis of
lesser evil: the reformist movement backing
pragmatist Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
en masse in the second and deciding round of
voting on Friday in a runoff against against
ultra-hawk Mahmud Ahmadinejad. A committee called
Students' Anti-Fascism Headquarters is even
traveling to rural Iran to campaign for
Rafsanjani.
Between a dogmatic ex-commando
still very active in the trenches of puritanism
and a pragmatic, let's-talk-to-the-West insider,
Rafsanjani the millionaire mullah could not but be
regarded by the reformists as the lesser evil -
Their candidates were routed in the first round,
with Mostafa Moin - the tentative successor to
outgoing president Mohammed Khatami - only getting
14% of the votes. Reformists feel that they have
lost a battle but not the war. Moin's defeat was
Khatami's last, undeserved humiliation. Reformists
now seem to realize that Ahmadinejad got to the
second round because he was talking about
unemployment and inflation - practical problems
for most Iranians - not more freedom and
democracy, which had been Khatami's favored
rhetoric.
Ahmadinejad, Tehran's mayor,
stormed the finishing line with 19% of the votes
(Rafsanjani got 21%) thanks to the discreet but
very efficient mobilization of the highly
motivated masses of the pious poor. The
mobilization was directed by very organized
militias like the Basijis and the Hezbollahis:
it's important to remember that both the Basijis
and Ansar-e Hizbollah attacked reformist students
in 1999 and 2003. Ahmadinejad's simple,
straightforward rhetoric - a throwback to the
early period of the Islamic revolution of 1979 -
was a smash, especially in Tehran's poor side of
town. Tehran, a metropolis of 14 million, is
deeply segregated. The made-up girls with silky
designer scarves bought in Dubai driving
Pathfinders in north Tehran are definitely a
minority. One of the most popular of Ahmadinejad's
campaign slogans was "we didn't conduct a
revolution so that we could become a democracy".
Then in his post-first round press conference he
added that, "in our democratic system, liberty is
already beyond what could be imagined".
European Union diplomats concur with the
analysis by the reformist Shargh daily newspaper,
which compared this Iranian election with the
French presidential election in 2002. Then, in the
first round, socialist Lionel Jospin was overtaken
at the last minute by ultra-rightist Jean-Marie Le
Pen - an outcome no one had predicted. In the
second round, Jacques Chirac won by a landslide -
thanks to a massive strategic vote by the left.
Shargh's chief editor, Mohammad Kuchani, writes,
"It is now explicitly clear that Rafsanjani is the
only option to keep democracy in Iran." For him,
talking about boycott "is a betrayal to freedom"
and "political suicide".
The ultimate
Persian neo-con
As the head of the
extremely powerful Expediency Council - which
arbitrates between the Guardians Council and the
majlis (parliament) - 70-year-old Rafsanjani
already was Iran's de facto number 2, responding
only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and
much more influential than the outgoing Khatami.
Rafsanjani's team is in charge of the
ultra-sensitive nuclear dossier. It was basically
Rafsanjani's decision to freeze Iranian nuclear
enrichment, be available to all sorts of UN
inspections, and negotiate with the EU-3. He wants
detente with the US - although he clearly
stipulates Washington has to make the first move.
Ahmadinejad, 49, a former commando with
the regime's ideological army, the Pasdaran
(Revolutionary Guards), active in covert
cross-border operations during the Iran-Iraq war
in the 1980s, is a completely different story.
He's backed by practically all the extreme
right-wing spectrum, people who are even further
to the right of the Supreme Leader. He has no
problems with his persona: in one of his campaign
rallies he said that "the people are waiting for
the fundamentalists to serve them". He rules out
any dialogue with the "Great Satan". And he will
be much tougher in nuclear negotiations.
Reformists say that he "Islamized" Tehran
to an enormous extent, cracking down heavily on
social and cultural life, transforming cultural
centers - which used to offer language courses,
movies, libraries, theater groups and music
concerts - into ersatz prayer rooms. He also shut
down fast food joints where the city's vast young
armies went to grab a chicken burger and at least
try to strike up a conversation with girls. Anyone
driving an Iranian-made Paykan with the stereo
blasting was fined. Soccer superstar David Beckham
- advertising motor oil on a billboard - was also
banned. The mayor's new, strictly enforced dress
code imposed long-sleeved shirts for male
municipal employees and a compulsory beard.
Ahmadinejad's beard is neatly trimmed. He looks
scruffy - cheap shirt, cheap jacket, no tie -
miles away from the sartorial splendor of Khatami.
Remember Ohio
The losers in the
first round are not going quietly. Supporters of
Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf insist that on election day
last Friday, Basij militia commanders and clerical
leaders saying prayers and branding fatwas
ordered all conservative families at the last
minute to switch their support from Qalibaf to
Ahmadinejad. The allegation needs to be
considered: as late as Thursday, one day before
the vote, Ahmadinejad was trailing at only 5 %,
way behind Qalibaf and reformist Moin.
Moin supporters alleged that members of
the Guardians Council - supposed to be observers -
were actually counting votes, and organizing a
US$15.5 million operation involving 300,000
members to make sure Ahmadinejad got to the second
round. Centrist-reformist cleric Mehdi Karoubi
told of "bizarre interference" and "money changing
hands". The 12-member Guardians Council - headed
by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati - denied every
accusation and said the election process was
"healthy" and ordered a meek recount of only 100
ballot boxes. Two reformist newspapers, Aftab and
Eghbal, were banned for attempting to publish a
letter by Karoubi denouncing an elaborate plot to
rig the polls. But "we do not know if this measure
only applies to today's issue or if it is a more
long-term ban," said reformist official Issa
Saharkiz.
Reformists are intrigued, to say
the least, that after the first post-election
projections, Ahmadinejad was in third place,
behind Moin; then Ahmadinejad declared victory
hours before the Interior Ministry had said
anything officially. Comparisons are being made
with the 2004 US presidential election in Ohio.
Significant numbers of Americans are convinced the
election in Ohio was stolen. Unfazed, Karoubi
appealed to the Supreme Leader to "appoint an
honest and trusted committee" to investigate the
Guardians Council themselves, as well as the
Interior Ministry, the Revolutionary Guards and
the Basijis. It's very unlikely the system will
investigate itself.
We prefer regime
change
As Ahmadinejad is very close to the
Supreme Leader, a victory in the second round
means all the institutions in the Islamic republic
- from the judiciary to parliament - will be
controlled by the right-wing. "Not unlike the US,"
quips a European diplomat. The conservatives are
emboldened. According to Ressalat newspaper,
"People want an honest fundamentalist who is proud
of his fundamentalism, not someone who resorts to
different appearance to win votes." Sounds like
Republicans blaming Democrat hopeful John Kerry as
a flip-flopper. Reformists and large swathes of
the Iranian diaspora are deeply disturbed -
because they know that for the regime, Rafsanjani
is considered a dangerous rival to the Supreme
Leader, while Ahmadinejad is regarded as a "son of
the revolution". Anything can happen.
Rafsanjani has publicly appealed for the
votes of everyone to the left of Ahmadinejad -
which in fact means everyone except the hardliners
- "so that we can prevent extremism". Student
reformists are busy shoring up the axis of lesser
evil. If pragmatist Rafsanjani wins, the Bush
administration will have to do business with a
moderate. No regime change. No invasion. No war.
Certainly the last thing Washington neo-cons want.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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