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Why the Saudi envoy really went
home
By John R Bradley
The Saudi ruling family has tried to
convince the world that everything is just as it
should be inside the kingdom in the two months
since the ailing King Fahd was hospitalized with
chronic pneumonia.
But the resignation
this week of Prince Bandar, the Saudi ambassador
to Washington for 22 years, and the announcement
that he will be replaced by the current London
ambassador, Prince Turki al-Faisal, heightens
speculation that an announcement of the king's
death is imminent. Bandar's dramatic return to
Riyadh will allow him to jostle for position when
Crown Prince Abdullah becomes king.
The
long-anticipated death of Fahd has given the
al-Saud plenty of time to plan for the
consequences, and the immediate succession of
Abdullah is unlikely to be controversial. But
subsequent successions are unlikely to be so
smooth.
In many ways, the succession
question could not have come at a better time:
Saudi Arabia is flush with oil money and Abdullah
recently completed a successful visit with
President George W Bush. Abdullah is popular among
the Saudi masses. He has positioned himself as a
strong Muslim leader by showing respect and
providing funding for the pious, and uniting the
kingdom's warring factions.
He has an
undeniable bond with, and concern about, the
impoverished and disenfranchised in Saudi society,
even visiting slums to hear the concerns of their
inhabitants. He is known for having a personal
commitment to reform – albeit measured, limited
and slow. And his close relationship with the US
is balanced by his willingness to criticize
American policies - and mores.
But
Abdullah is only a short-term answer. Seventy-nine
years old, his good health cannot be relied on.
The al-Saud have taken this into account, having
named Defense Minister Prince Sultan – Prince
Bandar's father – as next in line; he will assume
the title of crown prince when King Fahd dies.
But Sultan is 76, and while Abdullah is a
half-brother of King Fahd, Sultan is a full
brother and shares the same mother. Family matters
and jealousies always lurk in the background, and
it is conventional wisdom that they loath one
another. With succession again in question,
background may come into the open.
The
sensitivities of the al-Saud to open discussion of
succession, and any suggestion of dissension
within the leading ranks of the family, were
apparent in 2003 when American ambassador Robert
Jordan was ordered from the kingdom after the
London-based pan-Arab newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi
claimed that he had stated that Washington wanted
Abdullah to become the next ruler when Fahd died,
with a member of the kingdom's younger generation
of princes becoming the next crown prince.
Two issues were raised by the al-Quds
al-Arabi article.
First, the continued
dominance of the sons of the founder of modern
Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz, and the opportunity
of each to serve as king. Were Abdullah to choose
his own crown prince in place of Sultan, as a 1992
Royal Decree allows, the power grab would set off
reverberations in the family that could affect its
stability.
While Abdullah is unlikely to
upset the implicit pact, his age, and that of his
immediate successors, leaves open the second
issue: transfer of power to the so-called third
generation of princes. And this issue is far more
complicated.
For Abdul Aziz had at least
40 sons, and they could overlook their own
jealousies, not least from having different
mothers, for the common good. That is far more
difficult when there are six fathers, many mothers
and numerous princes.
The passing of the
second generation, of whom Sultan and Interior
Minister Prince Naif are the last, is not far off,
and is likely to lead to competition that could be
profoundly destabilizing.
After all, the
al-Saud have divvied up responsibilities in an
effort to keep all branches of the family happy,
with the result that each separate region of the
country is governed as a quasi-autonomous fief.
All the more dangerous is that the various
armed forces - the military, counterbalanced by
the internal security forces and tribal National
Guard - are commanded by competing princes:
Sultan, Naif and Abdullah respectively.
Ensconced in power, jealous of their
privileges, suspicious as any who has worn the
crown, faced with challenges to their positions,
various princes may fight to maintain their roles.
Indeed, the main reason behind the
resignation of Prince Bandar is believed to be the
friction-creating situation between him and
Abdullah, and the latter's increasing dependence
on Adel al-Jubair, his private counselor in
Washington, for communicating messages to the US
administration.
Turki, meanwhile, is a
brother of Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, who
announced Bandar's resignation in Riyadh last
week, even though Bandar had issued a statement
denying the fact a week before. Saud is Abdullah's
closest ally. The jostling for position has
clearly begun.
But the kingdom needs
change, and the strong leadership of a
single-minded prince, to overcome its severe
social and economic problems. Time is not on their
side. Those waiting in the wings who are most
disciplined and determined – and desperate to
seize the oil wealth and claim all the prestige
that comes with the governorship of the two holy
shrines – are the followers of Saudi dissident
Osama bin Laden.
John R
Bradley's book, Saudi Arabia Exposed: Inside
a Kingdom in Crisis, has just been
published.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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