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A steady Saudi hand -
for now
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Perhaps the most excitable
people following the death of King Fahd Ibin Abd
al-Aziz of Saudi Arabia on Monday were the oil
traders, spooked by possible unrest in the world's
biggest oil exporter.
The price of crude
oil jumped close to US$62 a barrel, even though
Saudi officials were quick to say that the kingdom
would stand by its long-standing policy aimed at
pumping enough oil to satisfy markets and
stabilize prices, as well as maintain a spare
capacity cushion of 1.5 million to 2 million
barrels per day (bpd).
Within Saudi
Arabia, the cradle of Islam (home to Mecca and
Medina), however, reaction was calm, with the late
king's half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, 82,
quickly installed as the new monarch. Fahd's
brother, Prince Sultan, the 81-year-old defense
minister, became crown prince and next in line to
the throne.
The smooth transition should
have been expected. Fahd had been the country's
absolute monarch since 1982, until he was
debilitated by a stroke in 1995, which effectively
resulted in Abdullah assuming power. [1]
However, with both the new king and the
next in line in the twilight of their years, the
issue of succession can be expected to become
pertinent in the not too distant future, at which
time Saudi Arabia can expect some turmoil.
Monday's transition shows, if only for the
moment, that Arabs are indeed improving in their
political conduct. The transition from Jordan's
King Hussein to his son Abdullah in 1999, that of
Syria's president Hafez Assad to his son Bashar in
2000, and that of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat
to his successor Mahmud Abbas in 2004 all show
that Arabs have to some extent abandoned coups,
revolts, and assassinations in their constant
quest for political leadership.
The
rise of Abdullah
Abdullah has been the
subject of much speculation in the Arab world and
abroad. Many consider him strong, an Arab
nationalist and anti-Western. The last trait is in
fact a little inflated by the Arab street and
media. It stems from his refusal to permit the US
to use Saudi territory for the war on Afghanistan
in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.
But he did this
not because he is anti-Western, but rather because
he saw it as madness for Saudi Arabia to become
entangled in such a mess, fearing for domestic
security and the threat from the country's most
infamous, and alienated son, Osama bin Laden.
Also, the targets in both Afghanistan (the
Taliban) and Iraq (Saddam Hussein) were
traditional enemies of Saudi Arabia. Allying Saudi
Arabia with the Americans at this stage, and
granting them a platform to launch war, would have
enraged the many fanatics inside the kingdom.
They need little encouragement to further
terrorize Saudi society: al-Qaeda's declared
objective, in addition to going after American
targets, is to bring down the House of Saud, which
has traditionally been a US ally anyway. (Saudi
Arabia is also a leading oil supplier to the US,
which takes about 1.6 million bpd of Saudi crude
out of total imports of about 10 million bpd.)
Abdullah's supporters argue that there is
no contradiction between being pro-West and
pro-Arab - it's a question of the economics of the
time. Abdullah opened the contest for Saudi
Arabia's gas riches in 1998, when he selected
eight international firms to invest in a $25
billion opening of natural gas fields. But only
one project worth up to $2 billion involving Royal
Dutch/Shell and Total survived after a dispute
over commercial terms. Saudi Arabia holds 236
trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
However, Saudi Arabia's upstream oil
sector, home to 264 billion barrels of crude, has
been off-limits to multinationals since the 1970s,
and the new king is expected to keep it this way.
"State oil company Saudi Aramco's expertise and
piles of cash enable it to drill for oil under its
own steam," Reuters quoted a Saudi official as
saying.
Abdullah made headlines with a
proposal for an all-Arab peace deal with Israel in
2002, echoing Fahd's 1981 plan, saying that Arabs
should collectively normalize ties with Israel if
Tel Aviv withdrew from all occupied Arab
territory. The plan was turned down by Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Domestically,
Abdullah has established himself as a reformer. He
has taken steps to polish the royal family's image
and publicly acknowledged that corruption is a
problem. He has introduced limited social and
political liberties, such as municipality
elections and granting criminals the right to an
attorney. Torture in prison was banned by
Abdullah. He has worked relentlessly to combat the
fundamentalist threat that has rocked Saudi Arabia
since 2001.
Over 2,000 fanatic preachers
have been removed from mosque pulpits. They were
either jailed for their views, or re-educated.
Excesses of the religious police force, known in
Saudi Arabia as al-mutawa'a and hated for
its ruthlessness and crudeness in the 1980s and
early 1990s, have been greatly curtailed. The
religious police are less visible on the streets
and their treatment of citizens is more polite and
less aggressive.
One to
watch
Abdullah tried to soothe relations
with the US after September 11 through the Saudi
ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin
Sultan. Bandar, who is Abdullah's nephew, took up
the job in 1983 and kept the post until stepping
down, amid a lot of speculation, in July. The new
Crown Prince Sultan is Bandar's father, and many
speculated that he returned home to be in a
position to jockey on Fahd's death.
Bandar
has been at the Oval Office with many US
presidents, as a friend, diplomat and advisor.
After September 11 he toured the US, holding
face-to-face meetings with US citizens to reduce
criticism of Saudi Arabia, at the time known to
angry Americans only as home to 15 of the 19
terrorists who attacked America. US media, public
opinion and many statesmen blamed the Saudi
monarchy for its religious indoctrination at
schools, mosques and universities, and called for
Abdullah to make immediate changes.
Bandar
is a good friend of the Bush family, particularly
the elder H W Bush, and is affectionately called
"Bandar Bush". The former US president wrote to
The New York Times about Prince Bandar: "To this
day, Bandar is the only person besides the
president of the United States that Bar [Barbara
Bush] lets smoke [a cigar] in our house."
Stories had been circulating that Bandar
and Abdullah hated each other and that Bandar's
father (Sultan) had his eyes set on the throne and
would use his armed forces to wrest it from
Abdullah when Fahd died. This turned out to be
nonsense, and Bandar is reportedly earmarked for a
more senior job in domestic Saudi politics.
He is not very popular in Saudi Arabia,
however, because of his extravagant lifestyle in
the US, which alienates the conservatives, the
fanatics and the emerging middle class.
The Saudi public remembers only too well
that Bandar donated $1 million to Barbara Bush to
combat illiteracy in America, and another $1
million to Nancy Reagan for the "Just Say No"
anti-drug campaign. The Saudis, and Arabs in
general, argue that Palestinians, Iraqis and other
miserable Arabs are more worthy of such
generosity. Yet despite his reputation, Bandar is
definitely going to be one of the most powerful
and influential people in the post-Fahd era.
The US view
Washington has made
it clear, through different channels in recent
years, that it does not welcome, although it
cannot really oppose, Abdullah. It has often
hinted that Fahd should be succeeded by a younger,
modernized king who is pragmatic, pro-Western and
less committed to Arab nationalism. The wounds
from Abdullah's stance vis-a-vis the Americans in
2001 and 2003 are apparently not forgotten by the
Bush White House.
Some in the US
administration argue that appointing a young and
popular king could undermine al-Qaeda's efforts to
denigrate and destroy the image of the House of
Saud. A people enjoying prosperity and a good
king, these officials claim, would work with the
monarchy, rather than against it, to combat
terrorism and bin Laden.
But the opposite
is true. A young, flamboyant king with little
legitimacy and experience, and less commitment to
either Islam or Arab nationalism, would enrage
al-Qaeda even further and prompt it to increase
its attacks on the House of Saud. Also, observers
of Abdullah claim that throughout the 1980s he
opposed Saudi Arabia's dependence on the US, and
worked on strengthening its ties with regional
players like Iran and Syria. This too, has been
frowned on by America.
The relationship
between Riyadh and Washington had been strong
since it was created by Fahd's father, King Abd
al-Aziz, and president Franklin Roosevelt during
World War II. It reached new dimensions in 1979
when instability in Iran - the Islamic revolution
- forced the Americans to reach for a new, rich
ally in the Gulf once the Shah was driven out of
power.
Both countries backed Saddam
Hussein in his war against Iran in the 1980s, and
likewise teamed up to eject him from Kuwait in
1991. A new relationship was created when, in
August 1990, then secretary of state Dick Cheney
and General Norman Schwarzkopf met with Fahd and
secured permission to use his territory to launch
their war on Saddam.
Abdullah was worried
that once in, the Americans would find it
difficult to leave Saudi Arabia. He called for an
exit strategy, and when none came along he began
to voice his displeasure at US policies in the
Middle East and continued military presence in
Saudi Arabia. Many conservatives in America,
searching for reasons to criticize the Saudi
monarchy, blasted Abdullah when, after the
Palestinian uprising broke out in 2000, he allowed
a charity organization run by his brother Nayef to
compensate the families of Palestinian martyrs. To
the Americans and Israelis, those dead men were
terrorists. To Abdullah and Arab public opinion,
they were heroes and defenders of a cause.
Down the line
Succession in
Saudi Arabia is based on a hereditary line in the
House of Saud. Power is handed down among the sons
of the kingdom's founder, King Abd al-Aziz, who
died in 1953. When Fahd became king in 1982, he
relied heavily on his full brothers to rule by his
side. They included Interior Minister Prince
Nayef, Defense Minister Sultan and Prince Salman,
the governor of Riyadh. Sultan, who remains in
charge of the Defense Ministry as well as being
crown prince, Prince Nayef and Prince Salman are
part of the "Sudairi Seven" clan which gets its
name from their mother.
Under terms of a
1994 law, when becoming king, Abdullah is able to
designate his successor irrespective of seniority.
He did not do that on August 1, despite
speculation that he might appoint a royal of the
third generation. Instead, he loyally appointed
Sultan as crown prince.
All the previous
Saudi kings began their reigns in their late 50s
or early 60s. Fahd, for example, was 61. Now
Abdullah is 82 and Sultan is 81. Sultan's brother,
Prince Nayef, also head of the internal security
forces, is 71. The grandsons of the founder, King
Abd al-Aziz, whose rights to the throne were
recognized in March 1992 by King Fahd himself, are
mostly middle-aged.
In fact, many in the
royal family who had their eyes set on the throne
had kept Fahd alive since 1995 for one reason:
they hoped that Abdullah would die before him.
Given the advanced age and medical
conditions of the first generation of Saudi royals
(Fahd, Abdullah, Sultan), it is likely that a king
will die every two or three years as what remains
of King Abd al-Aziz's children take their turn on
the throne. As the crown is passed on, prosperity,
stability and reforms will likely be slow. They
will probably be too slow for the majority of
Saudi youth, where 50% are under the age of 18.
This generation, like that of other Arabs in the
Arab world, wants reforms and modernization.
Ruling Saudi Arabia in the manner that has
prevailed since the 1930s will be difficult for
any monarch as the world advances into the 21st
century. This is the real challenge that King
Abdullah may not live long enough to face, but his
successors will have to bring the country up with
the times.
Note
[1] King
Fahd was born in Riyadh in 1923, and was still a
teenager when his father united the Arabian
peninsula and ousted its former sovereign, King
Hussein, the great-grandfather of Jordan's current
King Abdullah, from the Arabian desert. King Abd
al-Aziz al-Saud united the kingdom and created
modern Saudi Arabia in 1932, naming it after
himself.
Fahd studied at the Princess
School in Riyadh, with a heavy emphasis on Islam,
and in 1945 began his career by attending the
founding conference of the United Nations in the
US, with his brother, Prince Faisal (later king),
then minister of foreign affairs.
In 1953
his father appointed him minister of education, at
the age of 30. The same year he attended the
coronation of Queen Elizabeth II in London. In
1962, he became minister of interior and in 1967
deputy prime minister.
On March 25, 1975,
King Faisal was assassinated and another brother,
King Khalid, assumed the throne. Fahd became the
next in line, and when Khalid died on June 13,
1982, Fahd became the fifth king of Saudi Arabia.
Fahd's rule was marked with a degree of
prosperity, modernity and stability, only shaken
recently (since September 11) by al-Qaeda bombings
and terrorist attacks inside Saudi Arabia.
Fahd wanted to go down in history as a
grand builder - and he did. He had his name
inscribed on great monuments, roads, buildings and
bridges scattered all over the kingdom, which he
transformed from a Bedouin society into a highly
modernized and technically developed country.
Fahd's most memorable achievements in Arab
affairs are the 1981 Fahd Plan and the 1989 Taif
Accord in Saudi Arabia. The Fahd Plan was received
with mixed emotions and particularly shunned by
the Saudi clergy and intelligentsia because it
recognized Israel's right to exist. It was
supported at the time by Arafat because it ended
the historic conflict and created a Palestinian
state with a capital in Jerusalem, in addition to
calling on Israel to withdraw from the Arab
territories it had occupied in 1967.
The
Taif Accord was held under Fahd's patronage,
becoming the conference that ended the Lebanese
civil war in 1990. Fahd was particularly involved
in Lebanese affairs through his trusted friend
Rafik Hariri, whom he supported wholeheartedly
when the latter became prime minister of Lebanon
in 1992 and who was a key political figure until
his murder on February 14 this year.
Fahd's death surprised nobody. In recent
years, reports had surfaced about his
deteriorating health, preparing the Saudi street
for the news. He was distant from political
affairs, living on borrowed time since suffering a
brain stroke in 1995 which left him confined to a
wheelchair in a near-comatose state.
In
fact, so sick was the Saudi king that he was
unable to travel to Saudi Arabia from his
treatment and summer vacation in Spain to attend a
son's funeral in 1999.
Sami
Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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