The clashes in Basra this week in which
British forces used armored vehicles to forcibly
free two of their colleagues who had been arrested
by Iraqi police highlight Britain's growing
problems with maintaining order in a city that is
almost entirely dominated by Shi'ite militias.
Three British soldiers were injured as mobs burned
one of their vehicles and gunfire broke out.
The arrest of the two British soldiers -
allegedly for firing at a traffic police officer -
came a day after British forces in Basra arrested
two leading members of the Mahdi Army loyal to
Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
British
officials were quoted as saying that the crowd
that converged on the police station where the
British soldiers were
held included militiamen
apparently hoping to seize the soldiers as
bargaining chips for the release of the Mahdi Army
members.
Mustafa Alani, a regional expert
at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, told RFE/RL
that the clash was part of a power struggle
between the British and the militias.
"Basra has been dominated for the last two
years by the Shi'ite militias. And here we are
talking about two major groups, we are talking
about the Mahdi Army and we are talking about the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in
Iraq's [SCIRI] Badr forces [of Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim]," Alani said. "We assume the British are
in control of Basra; in reality, they lost control
a long time ago. And every development in the
city, whether it is the question of administration
or other issues like the economy, is dominated by
the militias."
The Basra police force is
widely believed to be infiltrated by members of
one or the other of the two dominant militias. At
the same time, many top civil authorities in Basra
are reportedly people tied to the militias or
their affiliated political parties and elected by
loyalists who have been mobilized to vote.
The two militias vie with each other for
power in tit-for-tat assassinations and drive-by
shootings that have become a regular feature of
life in Basra. They also target secular and
liberal opponents as they seek to impose their
version of Islamic rule, including banning alcohol
sales and enforcing dress codes for women.
Alani said multiple power struggles are
visible in Basra. "There are three levels of
struggle now in Basra. One is a Shi'ite-Shi'ite
struggle between the two major militias over who
is going to control the city. There is an ethnic
cleansing of the Arab Sunnis and Christian
communities from Basra by these militias. And the
third dimension is the clash between the Mahdi
Army group and the British forces, because British
forces try to impose a certain degree of control
and security and [to do so] they have to confront
this militia group," Alani said.
The Mahdi
Army has twice launched rebellions against the
US-led occupation of Iraq and remains a volatile
force, even as some of its top leaders participate
in the government in Baghdad. The SCIRI is a major
player in Iraq's interim government. Analysts say
the Shi'ite-dominated government in Baghdad
tolerates the situation in Basra because of the
strong role of the Shi'ite religious parties
there.
The British have fewer than 9,000
soldiers in densely populated southern Iraq - not
enough to clamp down on the militias by force.
Now, London must decide whether to continue trying
to deal with them through diplomatic means, or by
increasing its forces. Similarly, the militias
will have to decide whether now is the time to try
to wrest full control of the city from the British
or to continue with the present uneasy situation.
Complicating the situation in Basra still
further is the role of Iran, which has strong ties
to the SCIRI's Badr forces and seeks to build its
regional influence through them. Iran's
Revolutionary Guards equipped the Badr Brigades as
a guerrilla force fighting against Saddam Hussein
from bases in Iran until the US toppled the Iraqi
leader in 2003.
The Iran factor Holy Defense Week, Iran's annual commemoration
of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, began on September
22. As Iran marks the end of one conflict
involving Iraq, it faces accusations of
contributing to an ongoing one. But the situation
in Iraq is so convoluted that blaming just one
party does little to clarify or resolve the
situation.
British media have connected
Iran's purported actions against the British in
Basra with London's toughening stance on the
Iranian nuclear program.
Asked if he
believed Iran was behind tension in southern Iraq,
US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said on
September 20: "Iran has been busy in southern Iraq
for years and years and years," voa.com reported.
"They've sent pilgrims back and forth across that
border into those Shi'ite holy sites on a regular
basis. The borders are porous. They're interested,
they're involved and they're active." Rumsfeld
continued, "And it's not helpful. You know, you
can overplay your hand."
Ken Pollack, the
director of research at the Saban Center for
Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution,
said the establishment of safe houses and networks
were just some of the suspicious Iranian
activities in Iraq.
Tehran's stand towards
events in Iraq has developed against a backdrop of
continuing hostility to what it perceives as its
greatest enemy - the United States. Iran also is
faced with the possibility of Kurdish autonomy and
being surpassed by Iraq as the center of Shi'ite
Islam.
Tehran blames Washington Tehran rejects links with the violence in Iraq
and attributes it to the US. Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said on September 21,
"Publishing such reports is aimed at concealing
the incapability of the occupying forces in
restoring security to Iraq," the Islamic Republic
News Agency reported. If anything, Assefi said,
Iran had contributed to stability in Iraq by
working with the central government and other
parties.
One day earlier, Iran's Supreme
National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani
told a Tehran press conference that Iran had tried
to bring stability to Iraq, state television
reported. Larijani, like Assefi, pinned the blame
on the US. He said, "We believe that the
occupation of Iraq and the bases they are setting
up there and their humiliating behavior towards
the Iraqi people have resulted in an extreme
reaction."
Copyright (c) 2005, RFE/RL
Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036
