The draft constitution of Iraq has been
approved by 78% of voters nationwide. As expected,
the Sunni Arabs were unable to defeat it by
getting at least two-thirds of the voters in three
provinces to vote against it. The Independent
Electoral Commission of Iraq reported that about
63% of Iraq's 15.5 million registered voters cast
ballots.
Sunnis are not only viewing this
reality as a permanent loss of power, but also as
a way to partition their country into three parts.
What are they to do now? They will do whatever a
losing side does in an Arab polity that does not
know how political battles are won or lost in a
democracy. They will bide their time and attempt
to sabotage the system, unless they are assured
that the new Iraq is not just a euphemism for a
permanent loss of their power.
Considering
that a majority of voters in three provinces voted
against the constitution, but one of them failed
to reach the two-thirds threshold, there is hope
on the Sunni side that they may be
able
to change their bargaining position come December,
when elections are due.
The greatest Sunni
fear is that their country is well on its way to
being split into three regions - the Kurdish
north, well-endowed with oil, the Shi'ite south,
equally enriched with oil, and the center, which
has little to no oil. Even if there were to be no
threats of an imminent splitting of Iraq, the
Sunnis are wary about not having access to these
resources and remaining at the mercy of the Kurds
and the Shi'ites for future funding.
Here
is the crux of the problem: The Sunnis were at the
peak of power throughout the modern existence of
Iraq as a state, despite the fact that they were
in the minority. Now, they perceive themselves to
be living in a system that will victimize them.
But while the Sunnis know they have lost a
battle, the war is still there to be fought. From
the Sunni perspective, the victory of the Shi'ites
and the Kurds will be a temporary one, unless the
US decides to stay in the country for at least the
next decade or so, to guarantee the survival of
the system that it has created.
(Ironically, October 25, the day the
official ratification of the Iraqi construction
was announced, coincided with the the American
media reporting the 2,000th American soldier
killed in Iraq.)
And the Sunnis will be
aware of the grave limitations on America's
ability to remain in Iraq. Not just Iraq, but the
entire Arab world was watching the American
generals' testimonies in early October before the
US Congress, and their somber faces, while they
used bureaucratic gobbledygook to underplay the
poor state of readiness and performance of Iraqi
security forces. They also read the US public
opinion polls that regularly tell them that the
American people want their country to get out of
Iraq.
The ghosts of Vietnam may be viewed
as ghosts in Washington; they are very much alive
in the memories of the Arab world, and the Arab
media.
That is why the Sunnis can afford
to lose now and expect to emerge victorious later.
Even after the resounding ratification of the
constitution, let no one think that the new Iraq
is well on its way toward becoming a Shi'ite and
Kurdish-dominated country.
Is there room
for compromise in this palpably messy situation?
Perhaps in the long run, but it has to be done on
the basis of some of the most-basic demands of the
Sunnis. The federal nature of Iraq is the biggest
red flag. If there ever were to be a compromise,
it would have to be on a unitary system, where the
central government plays a powerful role,
especially in the distribution of oil revenue. As
the past rulers of Iraq, the Sunnis are accustomed
to this notion.
If the Shi'ites and the
Kurds are to come to grips with sharing power
through a unitary system, then there is some hope.
The US knows it, and, in fact, prefers that
option, but cannot do anything about it at
present.
So at least for now, the Sunnis
have to live with the fact that the Shi'ites and
the Kurds outplayed (and outnumbered) them. They
will have to wait for their chance, and wait they
will.
Ehsan Ahrari is an
independent strategic analyst based in Alexandria,
VA, US. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times
Online. He is also a regular contributor to the
Global Beat Syndicate. His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
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Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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