Jordan bombs a terrorist
master-stroke By Ehsan Ahrari
In the deadly game of transnational
terrorism, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has proved himself
to be a formidable opponent.
While Osama
bin Laden has become a legend within the rank and
file of global terrorists, he is living the life
of a retired legend. Zarqawi, on the other hand,
is fighting a two-front war: one in Iraq and a
second one, as Wednesday's attacks on the Grand
Hyatt, Radisson and Days Inn hotels in Jordan seem
to indicate, in his native country.
Zarqawi is the "prime suspect" for the
Amman bombings, according to Jordan's Deputy Prime
Minister, Marwan Muasher.
At
least 57 people are reported dead and more than
115 wounded in the three almost simultaneous
explosions.
Iraq's al-Qaeda, headed by
Zarqawi, in a statement posted on an Islamist
Internet site usually used by the group, on
Thursday claimed responsibility for the attacks.
In August, the same group claimed responsibility
for a failed rocket attack on US Navy ships in
Jordan's Aqaba port.
The scope of the "war
on terrorism", at least in this region, appears to
be widening.
Zarqawi has become an
established master strategist in waging his war
against the US. Because Iraq is engulfed in an
ongoing civil-war-like situation, Zarqawi's forces
appear increasingly potent in their attacks on
"soft targets" - a euphemism that describes the
rising death toll of civilians - in Iraq.
While bin Laden hides, most likely in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan area, he remains a retired
legend and a global inspirer of al-Qaeda as a
movement. In the meantime, Zarqawi is waging his
regional war on the United States, adding to his
own legacy, and expanding the scope of the war
beyond Iraq while Afghanistan and Pakistan remain
highly unstable. As an astute strategist, Zarqawi
has become an extremely powerful source of
inspiration and emulation for terrorists.
The questions of the hour are why was
Jordan targeted, and why now? The answers may not
be straightforward, since they appear to be linked
to Zarqawi's own interpretation of how the war
should be waged.
In that sense, the
actions in Iraq, and now in Jordan, may be linked
to what is also transpiring in Pakistan and
Afghanistan involving al-Qaeda and Taliban forces.
So, a good way to understand the role of Jordan in
the "war on terror" is to compare it with the role
that Pakistan plays.
Jordan, like
Pakistan, has chosen to side with the US in the
"war on terror". Much of the Jordanian populace,
like that of Pakistan, nurtures sympathy in
various levels for al-Qaeda, and anger for the
continued US occupation of Iraq. Thus, in both of
these countries, the legitimacy of the governments
remains shaky. That reality plays well into the
hands of Zarqawi and al-Qaeda.
Where
Jordan differs from Pakistan is that the former
has a large number of Palestinians seething over
the continued suffering of their brethren in the
occupied territory. But even that variation may
not be significant in the sense that
pro-Palestinian emotions are quite intense, and
equally genuine, in Pakistan.
After all,
the very raison d'etre of Pakistan was that
it was to be a place for Muslims of South Asia. As
such, Islamic internationalism has always remained
a powerful force in the country. Why else would it
take the Pakistani government 50 years after its
existence just to officially talk to Israel? In
the same duration, most Arab states openly sided
and supported India regarding the Kashmir
conflict.
Jordan's King Abdullah bin
Hussein II, like President General Pervez
Musharraf, has not only remained a strong
supporter of the "war on terror" but has also been
more willing than Musharraf to show the "Jordanian
face" in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Jordan has
played an active role in training Iraqi forces.
Abdullah's reasons for being visibly bolder than
Musharraf regarding Iraq have something to do with
the fact that there have been economic payoffs for
remaining a pro-US actor in post-Saddam Iraq.
More to the point, Abdullah envisages a
great leadership vacuum in the Arab world and
aspires to create his own niche by remaining a
"true friend" of the US, whose military prowess
and presence promises to determine the balance of
power in the region for a long time to come.
The Sandhurst-educated Abdullah must have
studied the history of England closely enough to
understand how a small country can maximize its
strategic payoffs by siding with the dominant
power of an era. No one understood that reality
better than that most astute student of world
history, British statesman Winston Churchill. In
emulating Churchill in that strategy, Abdullah is
playing a safe hand.
Thus, in his
commitment to do America's bidding - only to the
extent that it also serves Jordan's strategic
interests - Abdullah has become a masterful
player. In that role, he has come into serious
conflict with another skillful strategist,
Zarqawi.
Abdullah is building his own
advantage in the US's "war on terrorism". Zarqawi
and his allies, for their part, are maximizing the
advantage of their side by striking at Jordan at a
moment of their own choosing and attacking places
where Westerners reside. The purpose is not
necessarily to destabilize Jordan, but to create
enough instability and terror to depress the
Jordanian economy, a strategy that is working well
for al-Qaeda in Pakistan. Ehsan
Ahrari is a CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an
Alexandria, VA-based defense consultancy. He can
be reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
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