DAMASCUS - The many people who predicted
the demise of Hezbollah after the Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon in April have been proved
comprehensively wrong. The Shi'ite resistance
group, far from being weakened, is as strong as
ever, and even influencing events in Syria.
Hezbollah's secretary general Hasan
Nasrallah recently emphasized his party's
friendship with both Syria and Iran (the patrons
of Hezbollah), claiming that they had freed
Lebanon from occupation, and calling on all
Lebanese to establish a similar
friendship with Damascus and
Tehran.
He said, "Hezbollah's orders do
not come from Damascus. Since 1982 we have been
friends of Syria and until today do not hide this
friendship, nor are we embarrassed by it." He was
referring to the many Syrian allies in Lebanon who
turned against Damascus after Syria's power in
Lebanon began to wane in early 2005.
And
far from being embarrassed by the friendship with
Syria, Nasrallah has risen to its defense, forcing
the circling vultures to back off from the
embattled nation.
Since April, Hezbollah
had been relatively quiet. On the political front
it has participated in the democratic process: it
has 14 deputies in parliament and ministers in the
cabinet of Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora. On the
resistance front, the armed group - branded as a
terrorist group in many countries - had kept a low
profile.
All this changed on November 21
when Hezbollah carried out an operation in the
occupied Shebaa Farms in South Lebanon. This led
to an Israeli reprisal, the injuring of 10
Israelis and the killing of three members of
Hezbollah. It was the most serious incident
between Israel and Hezbollah since Israel withdrew
its troops from South Lebanon in 2000.
Then, on November 25, Nasrallah delivered
an inflammatory speech as his party welcomed to
Lebanon the bodies of the three slain combatants.
Undaunted by a UN Security Council statement
condemning Hezbollah for the violence on the
border, he defended the resistance, saying: "It is
not a shame, a crime or a terrorist act. It is our
right and our duty."
Without coincidence,
later that evening a breakthrough was announced
from Damascus over the UN commission charged with
investigating the murder of Lebanon's former prime
minister, Rafik Hariri, in February.
Detlev Mehlis, head of the commission, had
previously met with Syrian officials in Damascus
and issued a report in October claiming that
Syria, in compliance with Lebanese officials, was
involved in the assassination of Hariri, adding
that Syrian authorities had not cooperated with
the UN team. UN resolution 1636 followed, calling
on Syria to comply with Mehlis or face the
consequences of its behavior.
Mehlis
demanded that six Syrian officials, reportedly
including President Bashar Assad's brother-in-law,
General Assef Shawkat, be interrogated in Lebanon.
Syria refused and requested that the meetings take
place at the Arab League premises in Cairo or at a
UN office in the Syrian Golan Heights.
Mehlis refused to budge, insisting on
Lebanon. Then, suddenly, Mehlis started to bend,
and agreed that the interrogations could take
place in Vienna. Then he bent some more, and
Syrian authorities announced that five officials,
rather than six, would be questioned by Mehlis.
The names were not disclosed, but it is
widely believed that the name to have been crossed
off the list was that of Shawkat.
The game
had dramatically changed. It was Syria that was
supposed to cooperate with Mehlis, and not the
other way around.
A part of the reason for
this change of attitude was the direct
intervention of Russian President Vladimir Putin,
Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak. Behind these highly visible faces,
though, was Hezbollah. Nasrallah made it very
clear in his speech on November 25, and in the
days that preceded it, that Hezbollah was still
around and still able to destabilize matters in
Lebanon.
The threat of renewed unrest in
Lebanon was enough to get the world to recalculate
its stance with Hezbollah and ease pressure on the
Syrian regime. Hezbollah, after all, has open
access to money and logistics from Iran, and it is
the only group in Lebanon still to carry weapons
since the end of the civil war in 1992.
Politically, Hezbollah's deputies can veto
government decisions in the cabinet, create
trouble from within parliament, and even walk out
on Siniora. They have already threatened to bring
the cabinet down if Siniora insists on
internationalizing the court that will investigate
the suspects in Hariri's murder.
In his
speech, Nasrallah was clearly saying that
Hezbollah was angry, still allied to Syria, and
upset at all the pressure being mounted on
Damascus by the United States, Mehlis and the
Lebanese government. He wanted to remind the world
that it was unwise to pressure Syria too strongly
because Hezbollah would not stand by and watch in
silence.
While many said that Syria's role
after its exodus from Lebanon was to save
Hezbollah and prevent its disarming, the truth is
that Hezbollah does not need the help of Syria. It
is Syria that needs the help of Hezbollah.
And Syria got it with Nasrallah's
"military diplomacy" over the past few weeks.
With the Mehlis report facing scrutiny
after one of the witnesses, Hussam Taher Hussam,
recanted on his statements which had incriminated
the Syrian regime, and Mehlis himself saying that
he will step down as head of the United Nations
investigation team in January, Syria seems, for
the meantime at least, spared from ongoing
international pressure.
Apart from
remaining strong domestically, Hezbollah has
received a fillip with the rise to power of
Tehran's allies in Iraq. Men like influential
cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim of the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq and Prime Minister Ibrahim
Jaafari are all favorites of the mullahs of
Tehran.
Although Iran is the US's
traditional foe in the Gulf, Iran's allies in Iraq
happen to also be America's strongest allies in
the country. Upsetting the Shi'ites of Lebanon
would enrage the Shi'ites of Iran, and also the
Shi'ites of Iraq.
Having the Shi'ites walk
out on the post-Saddam Hussein order would destroy
the already very shaky system created by the
Americans since 2003. The US cannot afford to lose
a single ally in Iraq. and therefore cannot afford
to pressure the Shi'ites of Lebanon, and
Hezbollah, too strongly.
Another benefit
for Hezbollah was Iran's election of hardline
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad this year. He is
devoted to the principles of the Iranian
revolution of 1979 and shares a common agenda with
Hezbollah in his dislike for America and Israel.
In October, Ahmadinejad said he wanted to
wipe Israel off the map, echoing something
Nasrallah has been saying repeatedly at Hezbollah
rallies since 1992.
For the time being,
Damascus is safe.
Sami Moubayed
is a Syrian political analyst.
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