The incredible shrinking
coalition By David Isenberg
Despite the best efforts of the Bush
administration, increasing numbers of countries
are removing or reducing their military forces
deployed to Iraq. The coalition of the willing
seems to be increasingly unwilling.
In
all, the coalition has declined from a 2003 high
of 38 nations and 50,000 troops to 28 nations and
about 20,000 soldiers. The coalition has been
shrinking for some time. Italy will withdraw 300
of its 2,800 troops this month as part of a phased
pullout, and Spain and the Netherlands have
already withdrawn either all or
virtually all their
troops.
The
credibility of the coalition as
an example of staunch international support for the
US invasion of Iraq has always been somewhat suspect,
considering its members over time have including
small numbers of forces from countries such
as Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina,
the Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Estonia, Tonga, Latvia, Lithuania,
Macedonia, Moldova and Mongolia, to name a few.
Other countries have serious political
opposition at home to keeping their forces in
Iraq. As of mid-December, 201 non-US coalition
forces had been killed in Iraq, including 98 from
Britain, 27 from Italy, 18 from Ukraine, 17 from
Poland, 13 from Bulgaria and 11 from Spain.
The withdrawals are not that militarily
significant as, with the exception of Britain
(which is down from an original 40,000 troop
commitment to about 8,500), the other countries
have not been fighting insurgents; but
politically, they are the latest evidence of
declining support for the US presence in Iraq.
The withdrawals, however, do have
operational consequences. They will increase
pressure on Iraq to deploy its own military and
security forces, probably including many forces
that are not yet fully trained or equipped.
Of course, given that US officials have
been leaking the news that they expect to withdraw
some troops from Iraq this year, it is not surprising
that other nations would do the same.
Consider some recent news. For the US, the
most positive news is that at the end of last
month, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, as the
supreme armed-forces commander, agreed to his cabinet's
request to extent Poland's military mission in
Iraq until at least the end of this year. But the
size of the mission will be reduced from the
current 1,400 troops to 900, with the possibility
of a further reduction, and the mission's profile
will change to focus chiefly on advice and
training.
New Polish troops going to Iraq
in March will maintain military readiness to
support Iraqi forces if need be, but will not
undertake military operations themselves.
It should be noted that this news had been
expected, but the announcement was postponed to
improve Poland's position in talks with
Washington, with which it is negotiating military
aid. Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz
stressed, "The Americans are very much interested
in the mission being perceived as an international
one rather than solely as a US operation."
Also at the end of 2005, the US
asked Japan to consider having a few
senior, colonel-class, ground-troop officers remain in
southern Iraq after a troop withdrawal from the
southern city of Samawah, to participate in US
provincial reconstruction teams in Iraq. Japan,
however, has remained reluctant to join the teams.
On December 8, the Japanese government
formally extended the deployment of its troops in
Iraq into a third year, with an eye to withdrawing
key ground troops as early as this summer. The
country has just under 600 troops in the country
on a strictly humanitarian reconstruction mission.
Another end-of-the-year
development was the news that Denmark's 534 soldiers
stationed in Iraq would come home this year. A pullout of
Danish soldiers is expected to begin about October
or November. The Danish forces' parliamentary
mandate to operate in Iraq expires on February 1.
The Danish government intends to request an
extension until July 1.
On December
30, the last batch of 147 Bulgarian
peacekeeping soldiers in Iraq arrived back home. Their
two-year mission has now concluded, marking the return
of about 400 troops deployed in Iraq since
August 2003. The Bulgarian parliament decided in May
to withdraw the contingent before the end
of the year.
Ukraine has also withdrawn
the last of its 150 troops. Evidently, the
millions of dollars it took from the US for its
past elections were not enough of an inducement to
keep its troops there.
In the midst of
President George W Bush's visit to Asia on
November 19, South Korean defense officials said
they were seeking to reduce their troop
contribution in Iraq (the second-largest among US
coalition partners, after Britain). South Korea's
parliament approved a government plan on December
30 to bring home one-third of the country's
troops, but extended the overall deployment for
another year.
The plan calls for the
withdrawal of about 1,000 of the 3,200 South
Korean military personnel who are helping rebuild
a Kurdish area of northern Iraq. The reduction
begins in the first half of this year.
David Isenberg, a senior analyst
with the Washington-based British American
Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide
background in arms control and national security
issues. The views expressed are his own.
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