WASHINGTON - In escalating their
conflict with the United States over its efforts to
weaken the Iraqi insurgency by co-opting Sunni
political figures, Shi'ite party leaders may have
delivered a fatal blow to the US strategy.
US
Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad has been
trying to convince the Sunni population that a
share of political power will protect their
interests. But the ruling Shi'ite party -
supported by the anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr -
has now broken decisively with that strategy,
castigating both Sunni political leaders and the
US as being apologists for terrorists.
Responding to the January 5 suicide
bombing in Karbala that killed 60 Shi'ites and
wounded 120, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader
of
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in
Iraq (SCIRI), which heads the ruling Shi'ite
coalition, said, "We hold responsible coalition
forces and political elements that have openly
announced their support for terrorism, for the
pure blood that has flowed."
Sunni
political leaders have publicly denounced
terrorist acts, including the Karbala bombing.
Nevertheless, Hakim suggested that his party would
now block the bid by Sunni parties that won seats
in parliament last month to participate in
government.
The Sunni parties' alleged
support for terrorism "for the sake of immediate
political interests" would "only increase our
willingness to exclude" those "who promulgate and
make excuses for terrorism", he said. The Karbala
bombing and the SCIRI response came just as talks
were set to begin among Shi'ites, Kurds and Sunnis
on the formation of a new government.
Although he did not refer to the United
States, Hakim was making an obvious jab at
Washington for its efforts to promote a prominent
Sunni role in the next government and to weaken
Shi'ite control over paramilitary forces used to
fight the insurgents.
In an indication
that Hakim's statement was part of an emerging
Shi'ite plan to fend off the US Sunni strategy,
5,000 followers of Muqtada in Baghdad's Sadr City
chanted, "We're going to crush Saleh al-Mutlaq
with our slippers," referring to the Sunni
political leader considered to be a supporter of
the Sunni insurgency. Then they chanted: "No, no
to Zalmay. No, no to terrorism."
Hadi
al-Amiri, the secretary general of the Badr
Organization, a Shi'ite militia group, repeated a
previous Shi'ite argument that the Sunni political
groups had been supporting terrorism, and that the
US has been coddling them.
Speaking on the
Al-Arabiya television network, he said the Shi'ite
government had told the US "that they should not
give any cover to terrorism". The Badr leader
asserted that it was US interference with the
security operations of the government that "gave
the green light to terrorists to implement their
filthy operations against civilians".
The
new Shi'ite strategy thus appears to be aimed not
only at excluding or limiting Sunni participation
in the government, but at striking back at the
demand by Khalilzad last month that the SCIRI and
the Badr give up control over the Interior
Ministry, which has been responsible for
paramilitary operations that include death squads
and systematic torture of Sunni detainees.
Until the Karbala bombing, the SCIRI had
not responded publicly to US pressure, but it had
clearly been waiting for the right opportunity to
blast a US strategy they regard as favoring their
enemies.
Although the Shi'ite
counter-offensive may be intended in part to
strengthen their hand in bargaining in the
formation of the new government, it also reflects
fundamental Shi'ite sectarian beliefs about the
nature of the conflict with the Sunnis.
Militant Shi'ites regard all Sunni
political leaders and the main organization of
Sunni clerics, the Association of Muslim Scholars,
as being aligned with the Sunni insurgents. They
frequently insist that all Sunni insurgents are
"terrorists" and do not differentiate between them
and followers of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's
al-Qaeda-linked network in Iraq.
The new
SCIRI line has already been transmitted to Shi'ite
clerics. Imam Hazim Araji at Baghdad's Khadimiya
Mosque declared before 5,000 worshippers on
Saturday, "Terrorists are pampered in Iraq."
The SCIRI leaders are also
under strong pressure from their supporters to
take even stiffer actions against Sunnis in
response to terrorist bombing. Reuters quoted
a Shi'ite shopkeeper in Karbala as blaming last
Thursday's bombing on Sunnis and demanding permission from
Shi'ite clerics to "fight back".
Badr
leader Amiri suggested in an interview with
Reuters that Shi'ite "popular opinion" is "about
to explode". He said, "They're telling us, 'if you
can't protect us, then let us protect ourselves'."
The determination of the SCIRI leadership,
strongly backed by clerics and followers, to take
a hard line against the Sunnis both in politics
and paramilitary operations appears to doom to
failure the US Sunni co-optation strategy, which
had become the centerpiece of the administration's
war strategy in 2005.
The US effort to
draw Sunnis away from the insurgency and into the
government went into high gear when Khalilzad took
over the embassy in late July. Since then,
however, he has been reminded repeatedly that the
militant Shi'ite leadership was never really on
board.
The draft constitution that was
under negotiation last summer turned out to be a
disastrous setback to the Sunni strategy,
symbolizing the Shi'ite government's determination
to marginalize the Sunnis politically and
economically.
Khalilzad could only do
damage control in the weeks before the October
referendum, by getting Shi'ite representatives and
a small group of Sunni politicians to agree that
the constitution could be amended by the new
assembly.
The US ambassador outlined his
views on the necessity for political changes that
would reassure Sunnis in an interview with
Newsweek's Michael Hirsh on October 31. He noted
that many Sunnis "are driven by fear that they
will be marginalized and they will be
discriminated against". He pinned his hopes on a
set of amendments that would be made during the
first six months in the next Iraqi National
Assembly.
He acknowledged that the fact
the main political parties represented one sect of
Islam was "not a good thing" and referred
hopefully to "cross-sectarian political parties
... that are moderate and secular as well". That
was a reference to former prime minister Iyad
Allawi's party, which the embassy had hoped would
gain enough seats to play a major role in the next
government.
The December elections were
another blow to the Sunni strategy, reaffirming
the power of sectarian parties and the utter
weakness of secular parties. Even after
preliminary election returns made that clear,
however, the embassy continued to press for a
dilution of Shi'ite power - especially over
paramilitary operations against Sunnis.
Gareth Porter is an
historian and national-security policy analyst. His latest
book, Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power
and the Road to War in Vietnam, was
published in June.
