US sets its sights on
asymmetric warfare By Ehsan Ahrari
The Pentagon has offered the press a sneak
preview of its Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
2005. The two big items of international interest
are that the focus of the US military for the next
several decades will be on fighting asymmetric
warfare and on "influencing" such nations as China
that are at a "strategic crossroads" in their
world role.
At the same time, there is
ample emphasis on using "futuristic" forces of
robots, drone aircraft and networked computers.
But this
is a
continuing tradition of the US armed forces to
remain at the cutting edge of high-tech-dependent
warfare. In this realm, it remains peerless.
The QDR is a top military document
required by Congress. It sets US defense strategy,
guides plans for forces and military platforms,
and plays a major role in determining defense
spending for the next decade or so.
Even
though the "war on terrorism" has been a declared
policy of the US administration since the events
of September 2001, the US military has not exactly
been moving swiftly to enhance its capabilities in
fighting asymmetric war. While the QDR was being
compiled, two schools of military thought were
pulling the debate of defense strategy and
spending in opposite directions.
One
school is that insufficient attention is being
paid to asymmetric warfare, and that, in terms of
setting defense priorities, there is too much
competition between military platforms that are
designed to meet "state-type threats" versus
systems that are aimed at tackling "non-state-type
threats".
The second school is still
interested in promoting conventional weapons. It
argues that the rise of global terrorism did not
exactly diminish conventional threats. Meanwhile,
the congressional committees overseeing the US
armed forces were watching these debates, but
wanted to conduct their own review. They believe
that an inordinate amount of attention is paid in
the Pentagon to the budgetary preferences of the
various military services, and, more often than
not, the issue of "affordability" remains a
driving force of debate conducted inside the
Pentagon.
Anyway, it seems that the QDR
has settled this spirited debate in favor of
asymmetric warfare, at least for now. The
intensity of the Iraqi insurgency appears to have
persuaded a number of defense-related influentials
in Washington that the Islamist insurgency, if
anything, has become a global challenge. A number
of indicators are grabbing attention lately.
There have been a number of news
dispatches lately suggesting that not only are the
insurgents in Afghanistan escalating their
activities, but al-Qaeda-related groups are also
gathering momentum in Europe. Last week's audio
tape that allegedly contains the voice of Osama
bin Laden ominously mentions a new terrorist
campaign in the planning stage.
Even
though the voice on the tape remained focused on
the United States, it captured the attention of a
number of European leaders. The European countries
are especially concerned because the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization's International
Security Assistance Force is in the process of
taking over a whole gamut of security operations
in Afghanistan. Consequently, there is a growing
fear in Europe that a number of NATO countries
might be targeted by al-Qaeda.
The QDR has
four major goals: defeating terrorism, defending
the homeland, influencing such nations as China
that are at a "crossroads" in their world role,
and preventing hostile states or actors from
acquiring nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons
(look out Iran!).
In terms of fighting
terrorism, the focus is on increasing the size and
enhancing the capabilities of the Special Forces.
They will be expanded from 15 to 20 active-duty
battalions. Ninety more "A teams" (12-man highly
skilled teams to conduct special operations) will
be created and be deployed in areas considered
vulnerable to terrorist or extremist influences.
The US military will also increase its
capabilities on tracking and eliminating the "most
valued military targets", a euphemism for
terrorist leaders. The US Air Force's
special-operations wing will create unmanned
aerial drones to maintain endless watch on regions
of the world with a high terrorist presence.
The QDR will also spend huge resources to
prepare for "irregular", "catastrophic" and
"disruptive" attacks from insurgencies, or
terrorist groups with biological weapons, or
attacks on the information systems from countries
such as China.
The Pentagon has long been
aware that China is studying US information
systems and developing countermeasures that are
focused on its vulnerabilities. The Taiwan
conflict has never diminished its significance as
a highly contentious issue dividing China and the
United States. Thus a great amount of attention
and resources are being spent by the Department of
Defense in nullifying whatever advantages the
People's Liberation Army might have acquired (ie,
countering the countermeasures), which might be
used in the event of a military conflict involving
Taiwan.
As much as the US has remained
focused on developing intricate high-tech
defensive and offensive systems against the known
capabilities of its potential adversaries, what
befuddles China is the seemingly endless capacity
of the US military to develop unique campaign
plans to win conflicts. That nimbleness and
dexterity remain the most valuable characteristic
of the US military, a characteristic that is very
hard to counter. In this sense, Beijing will be
watching with rapt attention when the QDR is
considered by Congress for development of new
military platforms.
Ehsan Ahrari
is a CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria,
Virginia-based defense consultancy. He can be
reached ateahrari@cox.netorstratparadigms@yahoo.com.
His columns appear regularly in Asia Times
Online. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
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